We’re just past the quarter point of the NFL season, so we have enough data and film to predict which teams can actually make the Super Bowl. Between now and February, it’s nice to talk about which teams have started to separate themselves.
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Here’s a list of the top five Super Bowl contenders in the NFL and the reason why.
1. San Francisco 49ers
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I’m not going to shy away from it. I had the San Francisco 49ers going 9-8 before this season, and while they still technically can, it’s not gonna happen. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is once again having a superb season at the helm. It’s the second time he’s led his team to a 6-0 record, last time in 2019, when they made the Super Bowl.
Quarterback Brock Purdy is playing like the league’s MVP right now and is a major factor as the team operates on all cylinders. Purdy leads the league in EPA per dropback and ranks second in passing success rate. Once again, he’s doing it with a limited unit. The 49ers have dealt with major injuries (which I thought would lead to a 9-8 season), but they’ve played well through them. According to me, the No. 1 wide receiver at the moment is Jacob Cowing.
Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson, Christian Kirk, and De’Zhaun Stribling are all out with injuries. The Purdy-Shanahan pairing has evolved over the years, and now we’re seeing the two at their best.
Offenses don’t win championships; defenses do. San Francisco has a defense. The organization hired Raheem Morris to coordinate the defense, and he’s done a masterful job. Last season, the 49ers had one of the NFL’s worst pass rushes, ranking last with 20 total sacks. While they aren’t in the top 10, San Francisco is already up to 15 team sacks this season, ranking 17th in the league.
It’s not just the pass rush; the unit is playing at a high level overall. San Francisco ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play allowed through six weeks. Like the offense, they aren’t at full strength. The team is missing C.J. West, Alfred Collins, Nick Bosa, and Marques Sigle. Just a tremendous coaching job on both sides of the ball.
The San Francisco train is rolling, and Shanahan has his eyes set on Los Angeles.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
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Just when you thought the dynasty was over, they added a Super Bowl MVP. Running back Kenneth Walker III has transformed this Kansas City Chiefs offense and is the reason this team is 5-0 through six weeks (after a bye). Walker leads the league in rushing yards, yards per carry, and EPA per attempt. Overall, the Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards, leaning heavily on Walker for explosive plays. 19 of his runs have gone for 10-plus yards, which ranks second in the league.
The entire identity of this Chiefs offense has shifted. When you think of Kansas City, you think about Patrick Mahomes and him throwing the ball all over the yard. This season, the team is running the ball around 44 percent of the time. Compare that to the 2024 season, when the Chiefs went to the Super Bowl; they ran the ball 37 percent of the time. A seven percent jump with Walker added to the backfield.
Even with this new offense, the one limiting factor is a true field stretcher. Losing Tyquan Thornton hurts; he led the team in yards per reception with nearly 20 yards. The next closest player is Rashee Rice with 14.62. Kansas City should look for a field stretcher at the deadline to complete this offense and avoid becoming one-dimensional come playoff time.
On defense, Steve Spagnuolo is doing Spagnuolo things. He has fresh faces on the defense: rookies Peter Woods, R Mason Thomas and Mansoor Delane. They’ve all been lights out, especially Thomas. He’s added a different type of edge rusher than we’ve seen from Kansas City in recent years – speed. The defense ranks top three in total EPA per play allowed and overall success rate. The scary part is, the rookies will only get better as they find their footing in the NFL.
Expect Kansas City to be in the mix with Los Angeles, which upsets every other fanbase.
3. Buffalo Bills
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Is there any surprise a team led by Josh Allen is on this list? The Buffalo Bills elevated their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, to head coach this offseason, a move that raised major questions. The result is the team leading the league in EPA per play and EPA per rush on offense. We all know what this Bills offense can be, and we’re seeing it. As long as Allen is on the team, this team can compete for a Super Bowl, so what’s the limiting factor? Well, Bills fans already know. It’s the defense, and once again it’s struggling.
Brady hired Jim Leonhard as the defensive coordinator, and the move brought optimism. So far, it’s brought sorrow. The Bills rank 31st in yards allowed and 30th in overall success rate allowed. Last season, the Bills had one of the league’s better secondaries, defending the pass well, but this season everything has looked poor. The rushing defense has looked fine in spots, but it’s more because players like Deone Walker are making plays for tackles for loss. Overall, the team can get gashed on the ground.
Still, the front-seven has the talent to make splash plays from time to time, especially with the defensive line they have. I can’t say the same for Buffalo’s secondary; this unit seems to have limited Leonhard. Coming from Denver, you’d expect to see a lot more pressure packages and match zone coverage in the backend. The Bills haven’t really played into that; they’ve run a lot of invert looks and single-high coverages post-snap. It feels like Leonhard doesn’t trust the guys in his secondary to understand the rules of a match system.
Having rookies like Davison Igbinosun, Jalon Kilgore, and second-year corner Maxwell Hairston all playing meaningful snaps. It’s shown. Each one has made mistakes in the back end, which have led to the Bills ranking 28th in passing success rate allowed.
Leonhard has his work cut out for him, with his defense being the one thing that can keep this Buffalo team from lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Even with the No. 3 seed in the AFC, it still feels like the Jacksonville Jaguars don’t get the excitement they deserve. Head coach Liam Coen has done an outstanding job with this offense, putting them in the top 10 in success rate and EPA per play.
If you remember back in April, the Jaguars got an avalanche of questions about the draft class they just brought in. Well, the rookies they drafted are all contributing to this team in Year 1. Tight end Nate Boerkircher has made an impact in the running game in 12- or 13-personnel sets, receiver Josh Cameron is starting to see his role expanded week-to-week, and guard Emmanuel Pregnon is starting for the team at left guard. While tight end Tanner Koziol isn’t getting as much run, Coen has found fun ways to use him by splitting him out wide in heavier sets to get Travis Hunter in the slot.
That’s the thing with this team. Everything feels calculated and thought out. When you watch their film, they do something that you’ll no doubt see later in the game. That’s a sign of good coaching. But it’s not just the offense; the defense has been playing at a high level, led by Anthony Campanile. Yes, they just gave up 34 points to Houston, but CJ Stroud is playing like an MVP.
Watching the Jaguars operate on the defensive end, you’ll rarely see the same thing week-to-week. Campanile does a great job mixing up his game plans, making them unique to each team the organization plays. What’s been interesting to note is the Jaguars playing more man coverage this season. Campanile ran man coverage 18.1 percent of the time in 2025; this season he’s up to 25.8 percent.
The jump shows this team doesn’t stay stagnant. They won’t run the same thing over and over again, because it’s working. Each side of the ball is looking to innovate and improve. Don’t be surprised when Jacksonville is in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC come December.
5. Minnesota Vikings
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Defense wins championships, right? If we’re going by that logic, the Minnesota Vikings have to be on this list. The team is undefeated and leads the league in EPA per play allowed, success rate allowed, and pressure percentage. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is doing his thing and doing it well. The exotic blitz looks have had offenses losing sleep trying to figure it out. No one has yet, with the Vikings leading the league in blitz percentage as well, at around 70 percent.
What’s limiting the Vikings is their offense. We’ll give them grace as they haven’t been fully healthy yet, but in Week 5 we saw glimpses of what this unit can be with Kyler Murray at the helm. The most important part is how much Murray has scrambled for Minnesota. Even with missing time and having a bye week, Murray is fourth in the league in scramble percentage at 10.6 percent. It’s an added component to this Minnesota offense we haven’t really seen before; mix that with his ability to throw deep balls, and this unit can be fun.
The issue is injuries. Murray has already missed time himself, and the offense hasn’t been at full strength yet. Jordan Mason, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, and Donovan Jackson have all missed time. Throughout it all, the offense ranks 27th in total EPA per play. While that stat isn’t encouraging, we have to wait and see what the team looks like at full strength. The Vikings luck out with having Indianapolis, Detroit, and Buffalo coming out of the bye, giving them opportunities to experiment on the offensive end. I’d love to see head coach Kevin O’Connell lean more into the gap-running scheme; it’s worked better for Minnesota, so they could lean into it more.
Regardless, this defense will keep the Vikings in games. That’s all that matters, and that’s enough to make a Super Bowl run.
