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Houston can’t really afford a Tuesday loss behind ace Hunter Brown vs. the Royals
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4 min read
I am a proponent of must-win games being a thing, regardless of the type of sport being played. That being said, the Astros are not just facing a must-win game on Tuesday, but their series against the Kansas City Royals is really a must-sweep series. Game 1 of this three-game American League set starts at 8:10 p.m. ET from Daikin park in Houston, Texas. Bet $5+ on any of Tuesday’s games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:
There’s not a ton to look at with the Royals here. It’s been a disappointing season for a franchise that will miss the postseason for the 10th time since winning the 2014 World Series. Management will have to decide manager Matt Quatraro’s future after a tough campaign.
I think a change might be coming, only as the team wants to build momentum entering its new downtown ballpark that is scheduled to open in 2030. The NFL’s Chiefs couldn’t get a deal done and will move to the Kansas side of Kansas City, but that’s for another day.
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Royals vs. Astros MLB same-game parlay
- Houston money line
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
- Alt Under 10.5
FanDuel SGP price: +150 (subject to change)
Kansas City has lost nine of 13 but does start the capable Michael Wacha (9-3, 3.25 ERA) tonight. Some clubs were sniffing around the veteran righty at the trade deadline, but he’s under control on a pretty team-friendly contract through 2028. Not the kind of contract a smaller-market team wants to give up without an incredible trade return.
Wacha enters with four straight quality starts and hasn’t taken a loss since July 31 in Colorado. It’s his first look 2026 look at Houston, and Wacha has been a bit worse away at 3-5 with a 3.46 ERA. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 6.5 innings, 5.0 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs.
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I may have to consider a Christian Walker hitting prop, as he’s 5-for-11 career off Wacha with two doubles and a homer; Walker is +470 to go yard. The Astros enter off being swept in three games at AL East-leading Tampa Bay, but that might be just the kick in the pants they needed. The last time the Astros were swept was from July 17-19 by Baltimore, and they responded by winning 11 of 12 games. Tonight, they try to avoid falling back under .500 for the first time since Aug. 26.
“We’re really good at coming back from a losing streak, and I don’t see any reason why we’re not going to do it now,” Jose Altuve said after Sunday’s 14-4 loss at the Rays.
Houston’s push for the AL West title apparently will get an imminent boost with the return for former All-Star Carlos Correa from the 60-day IL. It won’t be tonight, but soon, after Correa had surgery on a left ankle tendon on May 11 and was expected to miss the rest of the season.
The team is pondering using Correa at second base, where he has never played, because Altuve has been a defensive disaster there at minus-16 defensive runs saved. That’s the worst of any player at that position, and he could move to DH. This way, the Astros could keep Isaac Paredes at third.
I expect Houston to hang on for the AL West crown regardless, and it is the -295 favorite, but Correa’s return certainly wouldn’t hurt matters. The offense is overly reliant on AL MVP lock Yordan Alvarez and averaging just 3.7 runs per game since Aug. 15.
Another reason you can’t lose a game like this is because ace Hunter Brown pitches, and when your ace loses to a bad team in the stretch run, it feels like two defeats. Brown (5-3, 3.52 ERA) was mediocre last time out in at no-decision at Philadelphia, allowing four earned and seven hits over five.
The 28-year-old entered with the third-highest ground-ball rate in the majors among pitchers with at least 80 innings and was rather unfortunate as the Phillies scored four in the third on five singles. Three of them had an exit velocity of 90.6 mph or lower, per Statcast, which deems 95 mph hard-hit. All five had a ground-ball launch angle.
Brown hasn’t faced the Royals this season and won his lone outing against them in 2025 with one run allowed over six in K.C. The model forecasts him at 5.4 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs.
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Wacha is no jokem so I feel really good about the first-inning Under and full-game alt Under plays. That the excellent Houston bullpen is rested may be the difference late, but I didn’t want to play Astros no bat bottom 9 just in case. The model has Astros by a score of 4.3-3.8. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
