1
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Spurs
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The Spurs pulled a little rabbit out of the hat against OKC in the conference finals. The Thunder, albeit by a thin margin, felt like the better team for most of that series. But moving forward, the Spurs are going to get an even better version of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and especially Dylan Harper, who didn’t really break out until the playoffs. For all the talk of trading De’Aaron Fox, for now he’s a luxury the Spurs can afford while Castle Harper and Wembanyama are all still on rookie contracts. The bottom line is this: The Spurs beat OKC in a conference finals Game 7 on the road, then held the lead against the Knicks in the Finals for over 72% of the minutes played when at this time last year it would’ve been considered a success if they had simply qualified for a playoff spot. Last year was prologue. This year, the story begins.
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2
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Thunder
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If you believe the Thunder are still the best team in the West, or the league for that matter, you won’t get a strong argument from me. Personally, I’m accounting for a leap from all three of San Antonio’s best players, whereas OKC already made that leap. The losses of Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins (even if he’d fallen out of the playoff rotation) and Lu Dort are real. But Cason Wallace is better than all of them. Ultimately, Chet Holmgren is the X-factor here. He turned in a great season, developing as a self-creator and he’s still arguably the best rim protector this side of Wemby. That’s his only nemesis. If he closes the gap on Wembanyama in a heads-up series, that could swing the pendulum back to OKC. It will be the single biggest storyline if those two meet again in the postseason.
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3
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Knicks
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Come playoff time, the Knicks are obviously the team to beat in the East. But I don’t think they’ll look the part in the regular season. They only won 53 games a year ago and I’m predicting less than that this year in a loaded Eastern Conference. All the contract stuff with KAT and others is extra weight for a Knicks team already carrying the significant burden of trying to be the first repeat champion since the 2018 Warriors. There’s a reason nobody has done it since then. The league is so deep and almost everything has to break your way. With the chemistry, defense, shooting and versatility, you can’t overstate the power of a team that has now proved to itself that all these things it believes in, and has believed in, actually work at the highest level. That creates a level of collective calm and confidence that is an NBA superpower. It will carry them when it needs to, but the regular season could be a bit of a slog.
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4
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76ers
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On paper, this might be the most talented starting five LeBron James has ever played with. Think about that. As talented as LeBron’s teams were in Cleveland and Miami, they were always a Big 3. Neither had that fourth superstar. LeBron, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown are All-NBA-level players, and V.J. Edgecombe could emerge as one of the best fifth starters in the league. Nick Nurse will have 82 games to figure out how these five guys fit together, which will ultimately determine their playoff utility. Sacrifices will have to be made. Last season, the five guys listed above amassed a collective usage rate of 143.1%. Simple math tells you that when all of them are on the court, they will have to cut that number, collectively, by 43%. That’s a lot. Everyone is going to get fewer shots. Nobody on this team should be hitting their previous scoring averages. They have to be OK with that. So often when superteams come together, the idea is for everyone to sacrifice scoring and embrace the margins, but the reality is they’re superstars because they’re great with the ball in their hands and asking them to operate without it just becomes awkward. See Damian Lillard in Milwaukee, and multiply it by two or three guys trying to do that. Still, what is the start of a new season without ultimate optimism? The Sixers are stacked. There is no way to dispute that. We will see if they can shoot and defend well enough, and most importantly, stay healthy enough. But right now I’ll take all the talent and bet on them to figure out the fit as they go.
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5
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Raptors
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Here’s a stat for you: The Raptors were 10 points worse per 100 possessions in relation to their opponent last season when Brandon Ingram was on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass, and he was miserable in the playoffs. He was a wonky fit as a methodical self-scorer on a team that wants to play fast and free. Now they flip Ingram out for Kawhi Leonard, the apex scorer they lacked. That’s quite an exchange for a team that won 46 games a year ago and took the Cavs to seven games in the playoffs. Leonard is coming off the healthiest and arguably best regular season of his career. We’re talking about just under 28-6-4 on almost 50-40-90 shooting over 65 games. He’ll have to do it again for the Raptors to contend. Kawhi and Scottie abarnes are going to be a nasty 1-2 punch. Behind that you have RJ Barrett, who could be a 20-ish point third scorer or a trade chip on an expiring deal. Collin Murray-Boyles is set to explode. Immanuel Quickley averaged 16 and 6 last year on 38% 3-point shooting. If you don’t know about Jamal Shead, you better learn. I don’t love Jakob Poeltl as the starting center or the depth behind him, but everything else about this team looks like a true contender. Vibes are high in Toronto. They should be.
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6
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Celtics
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Boston won 56 games last year and stands to be better this year. Jayson Tatum effectively replaces Jaylen Brown, Paul George replaces Anfernee Simons, and Mitchell Robinson replaces Nikola Vucevic. That’s three upgrades. Now factor in another year of growth for the surprise studs of last year — Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor Scheierman and Neemias Queta — and an All-Star leap from Payton Pritchard. Yes, you read that correctly. Payton Pritchard will be an All-Star. Joe Mazzulla’s system is a regular-season cheat code. They are going to win the possession game with low turnovers and a ton of offensive rebounds from Queta and Robinson. We haven’t even mentioned Derrick White, Sam Hauser or Jordan Walsh. This can be a top-five offensive and defensive team. They could miss Brown’s scoring force in the playoffs, and they lack overall athleticism and rim pressure, but in the regular season, I’ve got the Celtics coming out as the No. 1 East seed.
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7
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Pacers
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This might not happen right away. Tyrese Haliburton may need some time to hit his groove. But Indiana returns the guts of the same team that took OKC to Game 7 of the 2025 Finals and very well might’ve won the whole thing had Haliburton not blown his Achilles. Turner has been replaced by Ivica Zubac, who doesn’t bring the same kind of shooting but does everything else better and gives Indiana more diversity as a post presence and passing hub. Ultimately, this high of a ranking is a bet on Haliburton. Few point guards create as lush an offensive environment as he does. Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith don’t get talked about nearly enough. Pascal Siakam could’ve been All-NBA last year if not for the 65-game rule. This team is loaded and reenergized after the gap year. Again, it may take a minute. But come go time, Indiana should be up near the front of the Eastern pack.
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8
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Rockets
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I don’t understand Houston’s over/under 48.5 win total. That’s a blow-by number if they stay even relatively healthy. Sure, they went in the tank at points last year and looked bad in the playoffs, but they won 52 games with no point guard and Steven Adams, a major part of their major offensive rebounding advantage, out for the entire second half of their schedule. Now the Rockets get Adams and their point guard, Fred VanVleet, back in addition to Marcus Smart. This is a better team than the one that finished last season with the sixth-best net rating in the league. If you’re waiting on the Kevin Durant decline, get comfortable. The guy averaged 26 points per game last season on damn-near 52/41/87 shooting splits with almost zero structural offensive assistance. There’s a strong case to be made that 52 wins was about the lowest possible outcome for Houston last season. Based on their point differential, Cleaning The Glass pegged them as an expected 56-win team. And again, they are better this season. They’ll be in contention for a top-four seed and have all the ammo necessary to make a major trade should they choose to. De’Aaron Fox or Kyrie Irving would immediately turn this team into a top-shelf contender.
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6
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9
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Timberwolves
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Love the LaMelo Ball-Anthony Edwards pairing. Shooters connect on a higher percentage of shots off Ball passes than any distributor not named Nikola Jokic. Anthony Edwards shot 48% on catch-and-shoot 3s last year. This is a beautiful offensive pairing, and Minnesota has the bones of an elite defensive infrastructure to support Ball. The West is tough, but so is this team. I’ve got them a little lower than a team that has been to two of the last three conference finals should probably be because Ball is such a shakeup to the core, but if he proves up to the challenge of performing in meaningful games (he’s never played in a single playoff game), the Wolves can be scary.
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3
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10
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Nuggets
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This largely comes down to Aaron Gordon’s availability. When he plays, the Nuggets still kill. When he’s out, it’s a much different story. Given that Gordon is healthy right now and looked good in preseason, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and bank on Denver’s continuity and starting-five punch to carry the day. Cam Johnson caught a lot of flak last year, but look at the numbers. He shot 43% from 3 and was lights out after a terrible start, and he’s going to be more comfortable in year two. Christian Braun might never be worth his contract, but can and likely will be better than he was last year. DeMar DeRozan doesn’t seem like a great fit, but he could theoretically help keep the non-Nikola Jokić minutes above water. Bottom line, there’s still a lot of talent here. Murray was sensational last year. I just can’t see a Jokić team not winning 50 games. He remains one of the three best players in the world on his worst night. But this does feel like the Denver flight is on its descent.
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11
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Heat
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Half-court cramping is a concern with Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor together, but let’s not overcomplicate this. The Heat are working with one of the best players in the world in Antetokounmpo, one of the best defenders in the world in Adebayo, and one of the best coaches in the world in Erik Spoelstra. Miami has the makings of a top-five defense. Antetokounmpo’s paint gravity will generate plenty of open 3s, and quietly the Heat have a number of guys — Andrew Wiggins (41%), Klay Thompson (38%), Bobby Portis (46%), Tim Hardaway Jr. (41%), Davion MItchell (40%), Simone Fontecchio (38%) — who can feast on these looks in an up-tempo drive-and-kick setting. Pelle Larsson is tailor-made for a breakout season. I always worry about the half-court and late-game offense of a Giannis team. I foresee a lot of bull-in-a-china-shop possessions. But this Heat team can win so many of the little battles and overwhelm opponents with sheer force. Yet another potential 50-win team in the East.
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12
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Lakers
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The Lakers were looking like a shadow contender until Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves got hurt last year. Yes, they lost maybe the best player of all time, but the numbers with Dončić and Reaves on the court without LeBron James still paint a rosy picture. It’s fair to question the price the Lakers paid for Walker Kessler. But let’s look at the upside of this team. Luka and Austin have been extraordinary as the 1-2 punch (+8.3 without LeBron last season, per CTG) and that duo is now anchored with Kessler — a roll partner for Luka and offensive rebounder extraordinaire — instead of Deandre Ayton. That’s a major upgrade. This is far from a perfect team. The drop-off from Kessler to Kevon Looney is huge in those bench minutes (let alone if Kessler gets hurt). There isn’t much defense on the perimeter (who’s going to stay in front of ball handlers?). Shooting is a major X-factor. Bottom line, the Lakers have Luka, who I expect to win his third scoring title. You can only fall so low with that guy leading your team. As currently constructed, I don’t think there’s any way the Lakers can win the West barring something totally wonky happening. The playoffs will expose their defense as currently constructed. But regular-season wise, this is a team that can challenge for a top-four seed.
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13
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Pistons
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The Pistons are in for a regression from their 60-win campaign last year. The question is how significant? They finally got the Jalen Duren contract done, but now comes the hard part: Duren actually proving he can be a contention-caliber wingman for Cade Cunningham, who carries as heavy a creation burden as any star in the league. On the margins, the Pistons quietly did some decent offseason work. Isaiah Joe adds much-needed shooting alongside Duncan Robinson. If you lost track of John Collins after he left Atlanta, you probably don’t realize he has rediscovered his 3-point shot to the tune of plus-40% over the last two seasons and he’s lights out from the corner. This is a team to watch for a trade. They could make a big jump with Trey Murphy III, Michael Porter Jr. or Kyrie Irving. Even Tyler Herro would help in trying to replace the scoring the departed Tobias Harris provided. But until a trade actually happens or I see Duren looking like a different force than he was in the playoffs, I’m dubious of any team without a real second offensive threat.
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14
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Cavaliers
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Not getting LeBron was a gut shot, but the Cavs did well to add Peyton Watson and are bringing back the bulk of a team that went to the conference finals last year. So why the relatively low ranking? Easy. They needed seven games to get past Toronto in the first round and now the Raptors have Kawhi Leonard. They play that series again, Cleveland is one and done. Cleveland is a good team, but there are a lot of those in the East now. Watson’s multi-month surge in Denver was based on a higher usage than he’ll get in Cleveland. James Harden and his 48 career playoff games with more turnovers than buckets is who he is, and it’s not a playoff performer to be trusted. We’re going to be talking about Evan Mobley needing to take a leap for the rest of his career. Cleveland pretty clearly hit a ceiling last season against the Knicks. Relative to the vastly improved conference in which they play, I am not high on the Cavs even though they’ll still win 50ish games on box-score talent alone.
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15
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Magic
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I’m a sucker for the talent in Orlando, just as I was last season when I believed a top-four or even top-three seed was in the cards. Injuries largely prevented that from happening, but it wasn’t just that. The Paolo Banchero experiment is frustrating. When he’s on he looks like a superstar. But too often he’s not on. Can he coexist with Franz Wagner when neither guy is a consistent shooter? The needle moves closer to no every season. But I’m not ready to give up on the Magic yet. The talent and defensive infrastructure is there. New coach Sean Sweeney is probably a real offensive upgrade from Jamahl Mosley. Desmond Bane has been as advertised. Think of it like this: The Magic were a mess last season. Banchero shot even worse than normal, Wagner and Jalen Suggs combined to miss 73 games, and they still stumbled into 45 wins. Assuming they finally get a fair shake health-wise, I can see this team approaching 50 wins.
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16
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Trail Blazers
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I have the same concerns about the Ja Morant/Damian Lillard pairing as everyone else, but I don’t think it’ll take Micah Nori — who’s on a one-year contract and doesn’t have time to mess around with losing lineups — long to move Morant to the bench. From there, the upside of his scoring becomes much more of a bonus play. Outside of that concern, I’m high on this team. Lillard feels so right back in this uniform, and I have no reason to think he’ll be anything less than very good. They’ll have to figure out the balance of on-ball creation as Deni Avdija is probably the guy that deserves the most usage, and Lillard, though obviously capable, was never the best version of himself off the ball in Milwaukee. This is a problem with Morant, too. In another NBA era, this Portland roster would be a contender. It’s not at that point now, but it’s heading in the right direction unless Morant screws the whole thing up.
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17
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Jazz
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The Jazz are finally ready to start playing games with the actual goal of winning. They’ve added for Jaren Jackson Jr. and kept Lauri Markkanen all these years. They’ve seen Keyonte George develop into a lethal weapon. They drafted Darryn Peterson at second overall. With the spacing this team has with all its shooting bigs, that’s a backcourt that could combine for 40 on a lot of nights. I have Ace Bailey popping to Most Improved Player level. Utah’s offense will be top-10. The defense is another story. Walker Kessler is gone, and Jackson Jr. is an almost unbelievably poor rebounder for his size. Jusuf Nurkic being out to start the year really hurts Utah’s rebounding prospects and he is a passer who can tie a lot of this offense together. Utah was competitive in a good amount of games last year until it decided not to be, and there is real talent on this roster.
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1
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18
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Hawks
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The Knicks lost a total of three playoff games en route to winning the title. Two of them came at the hands of the Hawks, who add to their two-way wing stable this summer. The first addition is Aaron Wiggins, who fell out of Oklahoma City’s playoff rotation only because of OKC’s obscene perimeter depth. Wiggins is a player. That’s a big pickup. The second big addition is No. 8 overall pick Kingston Flemings, a lightning-fast athlete who doesn’t play in a hurry (that’s a powerful combination). Atlanta has also added Lu Dort, another big-time wing defender. Suddenly, you look at this two-way wing stable of Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Wiggins and Dort, with Onyeka Okongwu in the middle and a guy like Flemings at the point, and that’s a lot of defense. Now you have the infrastructure to support CJ McCollum as he looks to score and create off the bounce, and Johnson can continue to grow as an All-NBA player who glides in transition, scores and facilitates with ease within the flow of possessions, but needs to improve as a one-on-one creator. The Hawks won 46 games last season and secured the No. 6 seed. The problem is, the East is better and deeper this year, and the new lottery odds may hit Atlanta particularly hard.
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1
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19
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Hornets
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Say what you want, but LaMelo Ball made this team go. Just look at the on/off splits. That was a tough call for the Hornets to proactively trade Ball after such a successful second half of the season. It would’ve been way easier to just run it back with a young core that had created real energy in the city. Instead, the Hornets get Naz Reid and turn to Coby White at the point. This team now belongs to Brandon Miller and Kon Kneuppel. Let’s see how they fare without Ball’s creation. Miles Bridges is gone. He was a consistent source of offense for them, but the Hornets bring back elite shooting in Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale. One of my predictions for the season is the Hornets will set the record for 3-point attempts and makes in a single season. Everyone on this team can shoot. Though the Hornets flamed out in the Play-In Tournament last year, they were genuinely one of the best teams in the league with the most dominant starting lineup over a significant stretch. So now the question is simple: How much of that is sustainable without Ball?
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1
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0-0
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20
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Suns
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Phoenix swapped out Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neal for Miles Bridges, who brings a lot more athletic juice and rim pressure. Re-signing Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin on affordable deals was smart. That’s the blueprint these days. A lot of good players on balanced contracts. Luke Kennard can replace at least some of the shooting lost with Allen and O’Neale, but he’s not going to provide the volume of either, and he’s nowhere near the scorer that Allen is. Phoenix was one of the league’s better stories last season. Dillon Brooks was something of a revelation. Jalen Green needs to shoot a lot better, but there’s no denying the scoring talent. Devin Booker might need to tick back up his 3-point volume after the loss of Allen and O’Neale. The problem is, the Suns won a lot of games last year by flat-out playing harder than their opponent. They won’t catch as many teams by surprise this season, and it’s just tough to sustain that winning blueprint over multiple seasons when you’re at a talent deficit against two-thirds of the league.
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21
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Wizards
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Let’s assume they keep Anthony Davis for the moment. That’s an optimal starting lineup of Trae Young, No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George, Davis and Alex Sarr. First off, that’s a huge lineup outside of Young, and there’s a lot of talent coming off the bench in Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Bub Carrington and the recently acquired Deandre Ayton. There’s a world in which Washington chases 45 wins. But personally, I don’t live in that world. My world is a much more realistic one in which Young isn’t good enough and Davis isn’t healthy enough for this team to be a factor. The Young contract is a gross overpay. They have to trade Davis before making the same mistake twice.
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2
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22
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Mavericks
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One of the more interesting teams in the league, Dallas’ season could go five different ways. There’s sneaky talent here. Cooper Flagg has All-NBA leap written all over him, and Kyrie Irving looked fully back in his preseason action. With those two guys surrounded by a stable of straight-up solid NBA players (PJ Washington, Naji Marshall, Daniel Gafford, Santi Aldama, hopefully Derrick Lively III sooner than later), and two wild-card rookies in No. 9 overall pick Morez Johnson Jr and Sergio De Larrea, the Mavericks could compete for a playoff berth. … Or they could trade Irving, and a handful of the other vets that could help a lot of teams, and recoup some draft capital (they don’t control their first round pick until 2031) and finish south of 30 wins. In my opinion, they have to trade Irving. But until they do, this is a sneaky team to watch.
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23
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Grizzlies
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Cam Boozer is ready to average 20 and 10 out of the gate. Playing alongside Zach Edey, who was a top-10 offensive board guy as a rookie and is a problem with his size inside (the Grizzlies killed teams in his minutes last year, albeit in almost an irrelevantly small sample as he only played 11 games), he should be able to overpower matchups against smaller defenders. Those two guys and Isaiah Stewart are the frontline foundation of a team that is going to play extremely hard every night. This team could be the Phoenix of last year. The Grizzlies are going to play harder than their opponent most nights and there’s talent here. Memphis could be a Play-In Tournament team.
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4
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24
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Warriors
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It’s always going to be tempting to talk yourself into the idealized version of a Stephen Curry team. Yaxel Lendeborg is going to be awesome! Brandon Williams is going to be a bench spark plug! Gui Santos is slept on! Al Horford can still play! So can Draymond Green! All we gotta do is keep Curry healthy and stay relevant until Jimmy Butler gets back and take off from there! Sorry, folks. It ain’t happening. The far more realistic scenario is Curry, who only played in 43 games last year and is fighting an old-man knee that seems like it’s going to bug him off and on for the rest of his career, misses a lot of time again as the decision comes down to pushing a 38-year-old to his breaking point to maybe sneak into the play-in or keeping him fresh for next year, when they have substantial cap space and are planning (as they always are!) to make a big addition. Who knows when or if Kristaps Porzingis will even be able to play. Banking on Butler coming back after a torn ACL and a year off to just be, well, Jimmy Butler in February is a fairy tale. Too many things would have to go perfectly for this to even be a .500 team. It’s just not likely. This will be a bottom-five team in the West barring an unexpected trade.
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25
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Clippers
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There are some names on this Clippers team, notably Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram. But Ingram has a partially torn Achilles, and there’s no telling when he’ll be ready to go. Max Strus is also hurt to start the year. The Clippers almost have to trade some guys to recoup some of the future draft picks they forfeited to the Kawhi Leonard cap-circumvention cause (Rui Hachimura, Kris Dunn, and Derrick Jones Jr. are prime candidates). Ultimately, Ty Lue’s coaching might be enough to keep the Clippers out of the bottom-three relegation zone, but this season’s focus should be mostly on developing Keaton Wagler.
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26
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Pelicans
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Zion Williamson is a round peg in a square hole. He doesn’t fit next to Derik Queen because neither can shoot nor defend. Williamson needs the ball to be his best, but you can’t justify not playing through Queen and Jeremiah Fears. There are teams that are better than the sum of their parts and teams that are worse than the sum of their parts, and the Pelicans are the latter. They have good players. Herb Jones. Trey Murphy III. Dejounte Murray. All these guys can play and therefore should be traded because this team, as constructed, is going nowhere and has too many overlapping skill sets with the same flaws. The only question is whether the front office will do the right thing and make some of these trades — notably Murphy III and Zion if he plays well early and establishes a real market — at a reasonable price rather than holding out for the Danny Ainge train-heist package.
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2
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27
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Bulls
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To land a prospect as universally touted as Caleb Wilson at No. 4 overall was a big win for the Bulls, who are once again perfectly constructed to be a perfectly-bad-but-not-terrible team, which should actually work in their favor now that the lottery odds favor the 4-10 finishing spots. Josh Giddey has become a guy who almost guarantees a competitive team most nights, but Chicago doesn’t have enough to consistently win. Wilson will do the “flashes greatness but isn’t consistent” rookie thing. Matas Buzelis has all the gifts, and I think he could be in the race for Most Improved Player with more offensive license, but like Wilson, he will be contributing more to the bucket of impressive performances than leading to consistent winning. There’s a lot of size in Chicago with a stable of guys going 6-foot-7 and up, but the shooting, defense and depth are all going to be bottom-third material. Chicago getting to 30 wins in this Eastern Conference is a stretch.
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28
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Nets
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Brooklyn won 20 games last season while having no interest in winning. The Nets went out and got Julius Randle, whose ability to initiate offense will be a major crutch for Brooklyn’s bottom-barrel backcourt. Randle and Michael Porter Jr. give the Nets some punch, and there’s some sneaky depth here. The Egor Demin leap is coming. It’s true, Brooklyn won virtually all its games last season against fellow tankers, and nobody will be trying to bottom out this season. But Jordi Fernandez can really coach, and the incentive to lose is gone as the Nets don’t own their 2027 pick (Houston has swap rights). If they trade Porter Jr. during the season, everything changes. But as it stands, I actually like Brooklyn to approach 30 wins.
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29
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Bucks
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Milwaukee is the latest cautionary tale for all teams unwilling to get ahead of an inevitable superstar trade. If it’s going to happen, do it early. By waiting, the Bucks got back just a so-so package from Miami for Giannis. They’re going to be paying Damian Lillard to play for the Blazers for another four years. That said, there are some players on this team. For now, at least. Herro, Myles Turner and Kyle Kuzma are all ripe to be traded if the Bucks can find takers. Milwaukee doesn’t own its 2027 draft pick, so the Bucks don’t have to worry about being too bad and falling into the bottom three, freeing them to play around with their young guys, particularly first-round picks Brayden Burries and Nate Ament, with no fear of it costing them lottery odds. In the end, somebody has to lose games in the East. Milwaukee will more than pull its weight in this endeavor.
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1
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30
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Kings
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The Kings hope Darius Acuff Jr. is the future, but the present looks as bleak as it normally does for a Sacramento franchise that has made just one playoff appearance in the last 20 years. Acuff will love the offense he gets in two-man actions with Domantas Sabonis, who is the perfect rookie floor-raising partner. Zach LaVine is an elite shooter. Sacramento can put points on the board. But there isn’t a defensive bone to be found on this team, and LaVine and/or Sabonis could be moved. The Kings are the worst team in the league.
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2
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