At some point, it might be time to accept that it’s just not my year. I started the year 9-7 against the spread and have sat under .500 every week since.
Granted, a 7-8 record last weekend is the best I’ve done since Week 1, but the point stands: this simply hasn’t been good enough. Maybe the fifth time’s the charm? We’ll see. Before we get into the Week 6 NFL picks, here is a look back at how I did in Week 5:
Season Record ATS: 30-49 Frey’s Pick: DEN +2.5
This matchup very well could have been the Super Bowl last season if Bo Nix had not gotten hurt. Alas, we’ll have to settle for Thursday Night Football in Week 6. It’s still pretty high stakes for both these teams trying to keep up in divisions led by undefeated teams. Seattle is coming off a tough home loss to the 49ers while the Denver Broncos are returning home after two consecutive weeks on the West Coast. Sam Darnold has thrown five interceptions in the past three weeks, and the Broncos will cause some more trouble for him. I think Denver enjoys some home cooking and grabs this win.
Frey’s Pick: JAX -2.5
The Jaguars let the Eagles take the lead with nine seconds left in the game last weekend, but apparently that was too much time for Cam Little. Jacksonville got a game-winning field goal out of their kicker in London, and now, they are sticking around for another weekend to host the Houston Texans, who finally got off the snide last weekend with a win over the Tennessee Titans. I just don’t trust this defense right now, so I’ll take Jacksonville to win and cover considering they do not have a long travel week.
Frey’s Pick: NYG +1.5
This is a battle of misfit toys. The New Orleans Saints have looked like a shell of what they were to begin the year, and the New York Giants are coming off a tie with the ultimate roller coaster ride in Jameis Winston at quarterback alongside a disappointing sophomore season from Cam Skattebo. Still, the version of the Giants we’ve seen lately is far better than the version of the Saints that we’ve seen over the past two weeks. I’ll take New York here. Frey’s Pick: NE -6.5
The Jets could be a team that hovers around .500 this year, but this is still a Jets vs. Patriots matchup. New England has historically dominated this matchup, and Drake Maye has torched the Jets throughout his career. I’ll bet on that trend continuing this weekend.
Frey’s Pick: TB +2.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have found something last week. They were putting all sorts of pressure on Dak Prescott, and Jalon Daniels had an impressive start against the Cowboys defense. Granted, Pittsburgh’s defense is much better so points could be harder to come by, but I also think the Buccaneers’ defensive front causes some fits for Aaron Rodgers.
Frey’s Pick: IND -6.5
The Titans have averaged fewer than 12 points per game offensively this year. The unit has not been able to put anything together, and Cam Ward is not taking the step forward that you would like to see from a first overall pick at quarterback in year two. Indianapolis’ defense isn’t good, but is it bad enough to turn this dreadful offense around? I don’t think so. If trends hold, the Colts just have to get to 19 points to cover. I think they can accomplish that led by Jonathan Taylor.
Frey’s Pick: ATL +2.5
Caleb Williams could be back this weekend, but is he going to be rusty? The Bears defense has also proven it cannot hang with anyone right now. That is a problem going against a Falcons offense that has averaged nearly 35 points per game since Michael Penix returned to the field. I’ll take Atlanta to cover and grab an upset win at home.
Frey’s Pick: PHI -1.5
The Philadelphia Eagles have lost three consecutive games, but as of now, their two most recent losses have been close games against teams that could be competing for a Super Bowl when it’s all said and done. The offensive line that was patchworked together last week has another chance to gel, Saquon Barkley could be back, and Philly is back at home. I’ll take Philadelphia to get off the snide against what has been an impressive Carolina Panthers team this year.
Frey’s Pick: BAL -4.5
This spread tells me Lamar Jackson is coming back to the lineup this week. The Browns returned to what we thought they were last week against the Jets with a horrible game from Deshaun Watson, and Baltimore needs this game to hold onto the lead in a very tight AFC North. Their pass rushers will cause trouble for Cleveland’s offensive line, and Baltimore gets the job done. Frey’s Pick: LAR -12.5
The Rams are coming off a tough loss to the Buffalo Bills, but now, they have a chance to take out any frustrations on one of the worst defenses in the NFL. There’s always the risk of a backdoor cover in a double-digit spread, but I think LA puts this one away early and rides to a blowout win.
Frey’s Pick: BUF -5.5
Josh Allen has been playing hero ball, and the Raiders took a step back to earth last weekend with a blowout loss to the Patriots. I’m going to trust Superman to come through again.
Frey’s Pick: KC -8.5
The Los Angeles Chargers have now lost eight straight games, and they are catching a Chiefs team coming off their bye week at Arrowhead. Andy Reid has been dominant coming off a bye throughout his coaching career, and I think that continues here.
Frey’s Pick: DAL +1.5
Brian Schottenheimer called out his team after their loss last week for a lack of effort. I think they answer the call this week. The Packers are feeling good after their dominant win against the Bears last weekend, but they still are a one-dimensional offense that has not looked good in primetime situations. Cowboys bounce back to get a win on the road.
Frey’s Pick: SF -7.5
There isn’t a team that has looked better than the San Francisco 49ers through the first five weeks of the season, and they could get Nick Bosa back this weekend to join a pass rush that hasn’t skipped a beat without him. Washington blew a chance to beat the Giants last weekend, and their morale might be in the toilet right now. San Francisco wins big to get to 6-0.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article. Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Season Record Straight Up: 45-33-1
Week 5 NFL Picks
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
