With one month left in the regular season, the stretch run is upon us. There’s so much left to be decided across MLB, with both the American League nor National League brackets still wide open. Talented teams stuck in neutral, such as Seattle, Houston and Toronto, have time. Meanwhile, teams at the top of the standings — especially those with gaping holes in the roster, such as the White Sox, Phillies and even Braves — are still vulnerable.
One indicator of how the final month might play out is strength of schedule, which is essentially the combined winning percentage of a team’s future opponents.
5. Cleveland Guardians (.474)
- Toughest opponents: Red Sox (3x), White Sox (3x)
- Weakest opponents: A’s (3x), Royals (6x), Tigers (4x), Twins (3x), Blue Jays (3x), Orioles (3x)
The Guardians have won seven straight to move above .500 and reclaim the sixth and final seed in the AL Wild Card standings — for now. The thing about the AL, however, is that almost every opponent is weak. There are five total above-.500 teams in the league. So, some of these “easier matchups” on the docket are familiar rivals who have given Cleveland trouble all season.
Still, the schedule aligns with a favorable surge in momentum for Cleveland. And this shouldn’t really surprise us after the Guardians finished last season on an all-time heater to surge from the MLB basement into the playoffs. José Ramírez is healthy, Steven Kwan has found himself again, and Cleveland’s two deadline additions — Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell — are helpful in the heart of the order.
Plus, the Guardians’ pitching staff is a wagon. Parker Messick and Gavin Williams can match any duo in the AL, while Foster Griffin, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo round out a deep, consistent unit.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (.473)
- Toughest opponents: Padres (3x), Marlins (3x)
- Weakest opponents: Giants (6x), Nationals (3x), Tigers (3x), Twins (3x), Reds (7x), Cardinals (3x)
The Dodgers have experienced some turbulence in recent weeks, but does it even matter? Technically, yes. Los Angeles is still vulnerable in the No. 2 seed, with Atlanta (or perhaps Philadelphia) threatening to leapfrog them. That would force the Dodgers to play in the Wild Card round, rather than skipping to the NLDS with a bye. Even so, nobody will bet against the Dodgers until the siege has lifted and another team emerges victorious in the playoffs.
The Dodgers’ talent advantage is absolute. Baseball is meant to be an unpredictable sport by nature, but L.A. has won back-to-back World Series for a reason. The Blue Jays gave the Dodgers everything they could handle across seven games last October, but it’s unclear if there’s another team on 2025 Toronto’s level this season.
An easier schedule — plus the imminent returns of Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow on the mound — should help L.A. build some positive momentum down the stretch, which is the last thing the other World Series hopefuls need. But life ain’t fair. You will notice there is not another National League team on this list.
3. Chicago White Sox (.471)
- Toughest opponents: Guardians (3x)
- Weakest opponents: Rockies (3x), Royals (3x), Tigers (4x), Twins (6x), Pirates (3x), Astros (4x)
It’s not terribly shocking to watch the White Sox falter ever so slightly down the stretch. Chicago did little to address its core issues at the deadline; their rotation simply is not up to par with other contenders in the AL. One can’t help but wonder if this magical White Sox renaissance would even be happening if the American League wasn’t so vulnerable across the board.
Still, Chicago can hit its way to victory against just about any team. Munetaka Murakami has made every “hmmm, but he strikes out too much” tweet from last offseason age like milk. Miguel Vargas has gone from borderline unplayable a couple years ago to downright essential. Colson Montgomery, Sam Antonacci, Chase Meidroth, Tristan Peters — the lineup is loaded with youthful upstarts who clearly vibe on and off the field.
From a pure entertainment standpoint, every neutral observer should be rooting for the Sox. In reality, though, an easy schedule might secure them a spot in the playoffs, but it won’t help the White Sox advance past the first round against a team with more than one dependable pitcher.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (.468)
- Toughest opponents: Guardians (3x)
- Weakest opponents: A’s (3x), Royals (4x), Tigers (3x), Reds (3x), Mariners (3x), Orioles (6x)
The Blue Jays are stuck in a perpetual state of “almost there,” currently three games back from Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot. Last season served as a proof of concept. This core can absolutely compete at the highest level. Something rancid has formed at the core of this roster, however. The vibes couldn’t be much worse and Toronto has done little to earn the benefit of the doubt we so readily afforded earlier in the campaign.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract has quickly become a major talking point. He has more than a decade left on that very expensive deal. He still has not homered at home this season, with a middling .687 OPS and 95 wRC+ overall. George Springer has lost more than a step. Ernie Clement has, predictably, cooled off since the All-Star break.
Toronto still has Dylan Cease mid-Cy Young pursuit and José Soriano to help anchor the rotation, while the bullpen is an underrated asset. Unless the Blue Jays’ hitters can start performing up to their potential, however, an easy schedule might not be enough for Toronto to cross the finish line. Not when the Blue Jays qualify as an “easier matchup” for some of these other teams.
1. Seattle Mariners (.436)
- Toughest opponents: Red Sox (3x)
- Weakest opponents: Rockies (3x), Angels (7x), A’s (7x), Blue Jays (3x), Rangers (3x), Astros (2x)
Cal Raleigh has started to hit fastballs again, which is a major development. Meanwhile, Kade Anderson’s call-up adds to what was already the best rotation in the American League top to bottom, at least on paper. And yet, the Mariners are four games out of the sixth seed and seem incapable of sustaining momentum. Much like the Blue Jays, Seattle — in the ALCS a year ago, with a roster crafted for postseason success — has spent much of this season shooting itself in the foot.
Talent-wise, the Mariners are still worth monitoring, especially with a softball schedule for the season’s final month. You can be pretty mediocre and still cruise through series against Colorado, the Angels and the A’s. If Raleigh’s sudden wake-up is real, that should help the lineup as a whole perk up. Between Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone and Julio Rodríguez, the Mariners are not short on oomph when firing on all cylinders.
Seattle does not have the feel of a World Series contender this season, but so few American League teams do. If there’s one positive from this miserable season for the league as a whole, it’s that the door remains wide open if a team can figure it out suddenly in October. Very few teams are truly down and out, and Seattle has the pitching to support a deep run if the offense catches a spark.
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