Week 5 finally gave Green Bay the game it had been looking for, pushed Baltimore into the top 10 without Lamar Jackson and reminded everyone what Joe Burrow can do when Cincinnati gets him chances. On the other side, Tampa Bay won and still took the biggest PFM rating hit. The Chargers blew another fourth-quarter lead, and the Rams had a chance to beat Buffalo in overtime but could not finish it.
PFM’s Latest Ranking Changes page tracks every ratings update. This article focuses on the three biggest risers and three biggest fallers from the October 13 update by PFM Team Score, while also showing how each team moved in the 1-through-32 rankings.
There is a good reason to look at both numbers. Green Bay had the biggest score gain and climbed three spots. The Chargers lost almost the same number of points that the Rams did, but dropped five ranking spots while Los Angeles stayed No. 4. And Tampa Bay slipped four places despite winning its first game.
Week 6 snapshot: These moves compare PFM’s October 6 Week 5 update with the October 13 Week 6 update. The full board remains available in the 2026 PFM NFL Team Rankings.
The most revealing contrast is Tampa Bay and the Rams. A win did not protect the Buccaneers from the quarterback concern, and a large score drop did not knock Los Angeles out of the top four. PFM is measuring the team behind the result, not just handing out points for wins and losses.
1. Jordan Love Cut It Loose, and Chicago Had No Answer
Biggest riser · +2.53 · No. 16 to No. 13
Week 5 Score79.4
Week 6 Score81.9
Week 5 Result31-7 vs. CHI
Green Bay had spent the first month making its offense look much harder than it should. Then Jordan Love went 25-of-31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago, and the Packers beat the Bears 31-7. Christian Watson was the difference-maker downfield with six catches for 143 yards and both scores. This was not a game Green Bay squeaked out against a division rival. It took control of it.
The first touchdown drive told the story. Backed up at its own 9, Green Bay marched 91 yards and finished with a 42-yard play-action strike from Love to Watson. That matters because the Packers had not scored more than 22 points in any of their first four games. The defense helped turn the win into a blowout with five takeaways, but the offense finally gave Chicago something it could not sit back and wait to stop.
PFM moved Green Bay from No. 16 to No. 13, the biggest Team Score gain of the week. It is still not a finished product. Matt LaFleur needs this version of Love and the passing game to show up against opponents that will not hand Green Bay five turnovers. But Week 5 answered a real question: when Green Bay attacks instead of playing not to make a mistake, this offense has a much higher ceiling.
2. Baltimore Found a Way to Win the Game Without Lamar Jackson
Riser · +1.46 · No. 11 to No. 9
Week 5 Score81.4
Week 6 Score82.9
Week 5 Result30-23 (OT) at ATL
Baltimore was down eight in Atlanta with less than three minutes left. Lamar Jackson was out with an ankle injury, and the game was in Tyler Huntley’s hands. He led the drive that forced overtime, then finished the job with a quarterback sneak for the go-ahead touchdown. Kyle Hamilton’s interception ended it. That is a 30-23 road win the Ravens had every opportunity to lose.
Huntley completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, and he did not throw an interception. He was 12-for-12 through the fourth quarter and overtime, exactly when Baltimore needed him. Derrick Henry ran for 102 yards, giving Huntley enough help to avoid turning every down into a desperate throw. The Ravens made plays with their backup quarterback, their run game and their defense rather than waiting for Jackson to rescue them.
Moving to No. 9 is not PFM saying Huntley makes the Ravens better than Jackson does. Jackson’s injury still limits their ceiling, and the availability concern remains part of the rating. What changed is how much trust Baltimore earned around the quarterback. A team that can win this kind of game on the road with its starter watching has more than one way to survive a difficult Sunday.
3. Burrow Threw Four Touchdowns. Cincinnati Still Made It Close.
Riser · +1.43 · No. 13 to No. 12
Week 5 Score80.6
Week 6 Score82.0
Week 5 Result31-24 at MIA
Cincinnati needed Joe Burrow to settle this offense down after consecutive losses. He threw four touchdown passes in Miami, hitting four different receivers in a 31-24 win. Ja’Marr Chase returned from concussion protocol and caught six passes for 77 yards, including the 45-yard touchdown that made it 28-10 in the third quarter. That was the version of Burrow’s passing game Cincinnati needed to see again.
The Bengals also got real help from their defense early. Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back possessions in the second quarter, and Cincinnati went into halftime up 21-7. But here is why this was a one-spot rise instead of a jump into the top five: Miami rushed for 217 yards and turned an 18-point deficit into a one-score finish. The Bengals won; they did not finish off a winless opponent as cleanly as they should have.
PFM has Cincinnati at No. 12 because Burrow and Chase remain high-end answers, not because all the problems are solved. The offense can still put a game in its hands quickly. The defense and the sideline have to do more to keep it there. Cincinnati goes into its Week 6 bye with a needed win, but also with plenty to clean up before the trip to Baltimore.
4. Tampa Bay Won, but the Quarterback Situation Got Worse
Biggest faller · -2.65 · No. 21 to No. 25
Week 5 Score77.0
Week 6 Score74.4
Week 5 Result24-16 at DAL
Tampa Bay finally got its first win, 24-16 in Dallas, and still took the biggest PFM Team Score hit of the week. That sounds backward until you separate the result from the quarterback situation. Rookie Jalon Daniels did his job in his second start. He threw for 189 yards and a touchdown, Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards, and the Buccaneers piled up 241 rushing yards while the defense helped create three takeaways.
The problem is that one encouraging Thursday night does not erase Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. Mayfield has already missed two games, and Tampa Bay’s October 13 rating now reflects the risk of being without its established starter for multiple weeks. Daniels deserved credit for managing Dallas, but the Bucs needed Irving’s career night and a strong ground game to take pressure off a rookie who is still learning on the job.
PFM dropped Tampa Bay from No. 21 to No. 25 because quarterback availability changes how much of this offense can be trusted from week to week. If Mayfield gets back healthy, that picture can improve. Until then, the Bucs have a win to build on, but they are still 1-4 and asking a rookie quarterback and the running game to carry more than anyone planned.
5. The Chargers Had Their First Win in Sight. Then Came the Fourth Quarter.
Faller · -2.50 · No. 14 to No. 19
Week 5 Score79.8
Week 6 Score77.3
Week 5 Result17-23 vs. DEN
The Chargers led Denver 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, and for a few minutes it looked as if Jim Harbaugh’s team was finally going to get its first win. Instead, Los Angeles lost 23-17 and fell to 0-5. A failed fourth-down attempt gave Denver life. Justin Herbert then lost a fumble with the score tied and threw an interception on the next possession. Both turnovers helped hand Denver the field position it needed to finish the comeback.
This has gone well past one ugly fourth quarter. The Chargers had three rookie offensive linemen making their first NFL starts, with Joe Alt unavailable, and they were also missing Derwin James and Quentin Johnston. That matters. But injuries do not explain every decision or every empty possession. Two third-quarter touchdowns had the Chargers in front, including Kimani Vidal’s 42-yard run. They came away empty in the fourth and let another divisional game slip through their hands.
PFM took 2.50 points off the Chargers and moved them from No. 14 to No. 19. Herbert is still talented enough to make this team dangerous, and the defense has kept games close enough to win. But a team with five losses in five tries cannot keep getting credit for the game it looks capable of playing. At some point, Harbaugh’s Chargers have to finish one.
6. The Rams Put Up 34 Points and Still Let It Get Away
Faller · -2.45 · Held No. 4
Week 5 Score87.2
Week 6 Score84.8
Week 5 Result34-37 (OT) vs. BUF
Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns Monday night. Puka Nacua caught 17 passes for 138 yards and a score. Los Angeles had enough offense to beat Buffalo, came back to tie the game with five seconds left, and still lost 37-34 in overtime. Harrison Mevis missed a first-quarter field goal, then had a 48-yard attempt blocked in overtime with the Rams one kick from winning.
That is what makes this loss so frustrating. The Rams forced a James Cook fumble on Buffalo’s first overtime possession, got the ball back and moved into field-goal range. They had recovered from a late seven-point deficit and gotten the exact turnover they needed. Then the kick failed, Josh Allen made the most of a second chance and Tyler Bass ended it from 45 yards.
PFM cut Los Angeles by 2.45 points, yet the Rams stayed No. 4. That is the distinction worth understanding. The ranking still respects Sean McVay, Stafford and the talent on this offense. The score drop reflects how far a 2-3 team has moved from its early-season standard. Scoring 34 against Buffalo is impressive. It means a lot less when the game was there to finish and the Rams could not close it out.
What Week 5 Actually Changed for PFM
Green Bay, Baltimore and Cincinnati earned their climbs in very different ways. The Packers finally opened up their passing game and overwhelmed a division rival. The Ravens proved they could win the last two minutes and overtime with Huntley filling in. The Bengals got four Burrow touchdown passes, but also gave Miami enough room to make the finish uncomfortable.
The fallers make an even better point about how this board works. Tampa Bay played its best game of the season and still has a serious question about Mayfield’s throwing hand. The Chargers went to the fourth quarter with a lead and came away 0-5. The Rams produced 34 points and a massive night from Stafford and Nacua, but their kicking game cost them a chance to put Buffalo away.
Five games in, one result no longer gets to tell the entire story. Green Bay needs to repeat this offense, Baltimore still needs Jackson healthy, and Cincinnati cannot let good teams run the ball the way Miami did. The same goes the other way: the Rams are still fourth because one loss does not erase a talented roster. PFM is adjusting to what these teams have actually shown, and what they still have to prove.
See every Week 6 change, not just the six biggest moves.
Sources and PFM Data
- PFM 2026 NFL Team Rankings (October 13)
- PFM Latest Ranking Changes (October 13)
- PFM 2026 NFL Standings
- Green Bay: official Week 5 game recap
- Baltimore: official Week 5 game recap
- Cincinnati: official Week 5 game recap
- Tampa Bay: official Week 5 game recap
- Los Angeles Chargers: official Week 5 game recap
- Los Angeles Rams: official Week 5 game recap


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