Instances of NFL players outright throwing or “fixing” an entire football game are historically and statistically extremely rare. Because of the sheer number of players (53 per roster) and coaches required to execute a coordinated fix, an NFL-wide conspiracy is nearly impossible to pull off without being exposed.
The NBA Gambling Indictments
The scrutiny around professional sports and gambling reached a fever pitch following federal indictments unsealed in Brooklyn. Former NBA players Malik Beasley and Ed Davis were among six individuals charged with a slew of federal crimes, including wire fraud, bribery, and money laundering conspiracy.
Prosecutors allege that Beasley, facing millions of dollars in gambling debt, agreed to intentionally manipulate his on-court performance during select games in 2024 to hit specific over/under prop bets. His former teammate, Ed Davis, along with an NBA agent and several other co-conspirators, allegedly used this insider knowledge to place fraudulent wagers on Beasley’s stat lines.
Could This Happen in the NFL?
While point-shaving and prop manipulation scandals have periodically rocked the NBA, the NFL presents a fundamentally different landscape. The question of whether this happens in football, and how often, requires looking at a few key factors:
- Roster Size and Complexity: In basketball, a single star player can directly control the pace, point totals, and game outcome just by taking different shots or altering their defensive effort. In the NFL, an individual player’s impact is compartmentalized. A quarterback could intentionally throw an interception, but to intentionally shave points or throw a game entirely requires multiple players on both sides of the ball to be in on the fix.
- The Power of Prop Bets: While fixing a whole game is improbable in the NFL, manipulating micro-events (like the total number of rushing yards a running back gets or whether a kicker will miss a field goal) is theoretically easier. However, the NFL monitors betting lines heavily through integrity partnerships with data providers.
- Zero-Tolerance Policies: The NFL routinely suspends players, and even coaches, for violating the league’s strict gambling policies, which prohibit betting on any NFL event. While these suspensions are typically for betting on other sports or betting from team facilities (such as the high-profile suspensions of Calvin Ridley, Jameson Williams, and others), they prove that the league is highly sensitive to the appearance of impropriety.
The Verdict
Outright “throwing” an NFL game is extremely rare, if non-existent in the modern era, due to the high risk of detection and the massive amount of players required to coordinate such a conspiracy. However, the modern surge in micro-betting and prop bets creates an environment where a single rogue player could theoretically manipulate their own stats for financial gain.
But my question is simple, do you think there are players doing it?
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