As a rookie, C.J. Stroud was the fifth-best quarterback in the NFL in PFN’s QB Impact Score with. In the two seasons since, Stroud has ranked 19th and 33rd.
Stroud has a lot riding on the 2026 NFL season, which is why PFN’s NFL analyst Kyle Soppe recently chose the Houston Texans quarterback as the QB with the most to prove this year.
Why C.J. Stroud Has the Most to Prove in 2026
Stroud’s rookie year looked like the start of something special. He threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions in 2023 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and earn a Pro Bowl nod.
However, in 2025, he posted career lows of 3,041 passing yards and 19 touchdowns across 14 games, while throwing for 8 interceptions. Then, Stroud came apart in the Texans’ Divisional Round loss to the New England Patriots, throwing 4 picks and finishing the game with a 42.6% completion rate.
A concussion suffered in a Week 9 loss to Denver cost him three starts and may have contributed to his struggles down the stretch. But it was telling that Mills, on a one-year, $7 million deal, stepped in and beat the Jaguars, Titans, and Bills with the offense not missing a beat. On the latest edition of “Football Debate Club,” Soppe explained why Stroud is his QB with the most to prove this season.
“He’s got to be more than just a supporting actor for this team’s success.” @KyleSoppePFN names the NFL QB with most to prove in 2026. 👀 https://t.co/nkvk5pKuhj pic.twitter.com/exMfY8pQot
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) June 30, 2026
“The Texans brought in help. David Montgomery solidifies the backfield. They drafted blocking help with three of their first four picks in April. He’s got to be more than just a supporting actor for this team’s success,” Soppe said.
“Davis Mills went 3-0 for this team. The defense is great, we know that. They’re going to win games, but they need to win games because of Stroud, not in spite of him if he wants to prove to the league and to his team that he’s the guy moving forward beyond just the fifth-year [option] of his rookie deal, which Houston did pick up through the end of next season. And I think he does it. Look for Stroud to have a big 2026.”
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The Texans fielded arguably the best defense in football in 2025, allowing a league-low 271.9 yards per game. That unit is the reason Houston won 12 games, even when Stroud and the offense struggled.
As Soppe noted, Houston spent the offseason trying to make things easier on Stroud. They traded for Montgomery, drafted three blockers early in OG Keylan Rutledge, OG Febechi Nwaiwu, and TE Marlin Klein, and they signed free-agent linemen Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith. Now, it’s on Stroud to show what he can do with improved protection and a better rushing attack.
The fifth-year option that Houston exercised in April keeps Stroud under contract through 2027 at roughly $25.9 million, but the Texans will have to decide whether they want to give Stroud the massive payday he’ll be seeking.
As a former No. 2 overall pick who has shown flashes of greatness, he will reportedly want a deal in the $55-60 million range. However, to get that kind of lucrative contract, he needs to elevate his game and show that he’s not replaceable with a game manager like Mills.
With a lucrative payday on the line and the Texans’ Super Bowl aspirations riding on him, it’s easy to see why Soppe went with Stroud as the QB with the most to prove in 2026.
