Which teams in the MLB standings have the toughest paths to the playoffs?

Bullet point summary by AI

• With more than half the MLB season gone, few teams can be considered playoff locks, making the remaining schedule crucial for contention.
• Several American League teams face daunting matchups that could determine whether they push for the postseason or pivot at the trade deadline.
• The National League’s tightness means even teams with tough remaining schedules still have a path, but performance against winning teams will be key.

More than half of the MLB regular season is already complete, yet there are few, if any, playoff locks. We know the Los Angeles Dodgers will win another division title, and it’d be shocking to see teams like the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers fall out of contention. But other than that, which teams can you say with any certainty are playoff locks?

The playoff races in each league are competitive, and they could evidently be decided by the remaining strength of schedule. To put it simply, easier competition should lead to more favorable results for teams in contention. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the standings and determine which teams are best positioned to finish the regular season on a high note.

AL playoff standings

The only teams that can safely be ruled out of postseason contention as of now are the Kansas City Royals and the Los Angeles Angels. The Athletics are trending in the wrong direction, but even then, a 6.5-game deficit isn’t the end of the world if they’re able to get off to a good start in the second half. Everyone else in the American League is either in a playoff spot or within 3.5 games of one. That is, frankly, absurd.

The standings are so jumbled to the point where they might not look anything like they do now by the trade deadline, let alone the end of the season. It’s hard to be fully confident in any team other than the Rays or Yankees even making the playoffs, speaking to how competitive things are in the AL.

Again, the remaining strength of schedule, courtesy of Tankathon, could dictate which teams are able to make the playoffs and which will be watching from their couches.

AL standings by strength of schedule

I wish the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox luck, but the odds are probably stacked against them. All three of those AL East teams trail by 10.0 games or more in the AL East, so their only realistic path to the postseason is through a Wild Card spot. While they’re all within 2.5 games of the third Wild Card spot (Boston is even down by just 0.5 games now) they have three of the four toughest remaining schedules in the AL thanks largely to series against the Rays and Yankees, the best teams in the league.

The Blue Jays, in particular, have a tough schedule coming out of the All-Star break, with back-to-back sets against the White Sox and Rays, two division leaders, and then road series in Boston and Washington (two teams hovering around the .500 mark and in postseason contention). That’s it until the deadline. How they play in those series could dictate whether they pursue winning now or sell off their rentals.

On the flip side, the Cleveland Guardians are sitting pretty, with the easiest remaining schedule by far. Whether they can parlay that into an AL Central division title over a Chicago White Sox team with a much tougher remaining schedule remains to be seen.

NL playoff standings

The National League standings are almost as jumbled as the AL standings, with 11 of the 15 teams either in or within 4.0 games of a playoff spot. The bottom four teams can be seen as sellers, but even then, a good week for the Cincinnati Reds could have them within striking distance of a playoff spot.

It’ll be particularly interesting to watch teams like the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, who not only need to make up ground but would need to jump three or more teams to make the playoffs.

NL standings by strength of schedule

It’s only fitting that three of the five toughest strengths of schedules in the NL belong to teams out of contention, and that most of the rest of the teams all have comparable schedules down the stretch. There are a couple of exceptions, though.

The Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies have the toughest remaining schedules among contenders, but that might not be as daunting as you’d think. The Cubs have played well against winning teams, going 28-25 against teams with a record of .500 or better, while the Phillies are going to play two of their toughest series (vs. LAD and vs. NYY) right after the All-Star break. If the Cubs can keep up what they’ve done against winning teams and the Phillies can survive their tough stretch, those teams should be fine.

Teams that could instead be in for a rough finish are the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, both of whom have struggled against winning teams this season. Truth be told, though, given how formidable the NL is, there are no “easy” schedules down the stretch like there are in the AL, and that should lead to a fun and hectic finish.

More MLB news and analysis: