I guess we can consider last week a step forward.
It was infinitely better than the 3-11 showing in Week 6, but 6-8 still isn’t a good record to hang my hat on. I’ve been searching for a .500 record against the spread since I started picking every game in 2024, and it’s starting to look like that journey will continue into 2027 at this point.
Still, we press on to Week 8, and maybe a miracle can happen. Before we move onto this week’s picks, here is a look back on how I did in Week 7.
Season Record ATS: 39-68 Frey’s Pick: GB -3.5
Carolina’s offense has shown that they can be good, but I don’t trust that defense to hold down Green Bay’s passing offense, particularly with their top cornerbacks being out and the Packers coming off a tough loss to swallow. Packers get the win and cover.
Frey’s Pick: BUF -3.5
It seemed like Lamar Jackson was going to be ready to suit up last week, so I’m assuming he’s playing in this game. Regardless, the Bills are coming off a bye, and we didn’t see much from the Ravens defense last week. I’m taking Buffalo here. Frey’s Pick: JAX -9.5
Jonathan Taylor came close to finally getting back over the century mark in rushing yards last week. I think he’s going to have to wait another week against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has been the best defense against the run all season. The Colts also just traded way Quentin Nelson and could make more moves before the week is over. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover this game and win by double digits.
Frey’s Pick: CIN -10.5
Last week showed a lot for me from the Bengals. Their offense has started to cook, and this Titans defense isn’t all that good. With Cincinnati at home, I’m taking Joe Burrow to put together a blowout win here.
Frey’s Pick: DET -3.5
Minnesota’s defense has carried the way to a 6-0 start, but their run defense last weekend scared me a bit. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the best backs in the NFL, and I think he is going to put on a show on Sunday to get Detroit back into the mix for an NFC North title. The Lions defend homefield here and take out the final undefeated team in the NFL.
Frey’s Pick: PIT -3.5
Aaron Rodgers seems to be playing loose, fun football right now. Cleveland’s defense has been good, but I still don’t trust Deshaun Watson to come through against a good football team when he needs to. Pittsburgh takes the win here.
Frey’s Pick: NYJ -1.5
Aaron Glenn’s j0b could be on the line here whether it comes after this week or at the end of the season. The Jets just can’t be 2-6 going into the second half of the year. Las Vegas hasn’t been good on defense, and New York should be able to put pressure on Kirk Cousins. I was endeared by the Raiders early in the year, but that run may be coming to an end. I’ll take New York here.
Frey’s Pick: ATL +1.5
This is a huge game in the NFC South race. Tampa Bay’s defense has seen a major resurgence in recent weeks, and they showed that off again by allowing just 13 points to the Carolina Panthers last week. Tampa is at home here, but I really like what I’ve seen out of the Falcons over the past few weeks since Michael Penix came back into the lineup. I’ll take Atlanta here. Frey’s Pick: DAL -6.5
Neither one of these defenses are very good. They’ve both allowed over 25 points per game this season. So that means this comes down to one thing: which offense do I trust more? I’m rolling with the Cowboys here.
Frey’s Pick: LAR -6.5
The Chargers are coming off a bye week, but the Rams are starting to come together. We’ve been waiting for the Rams to look like the Super Bowl contender that we thought they would be coming into the year, and I think this is one of those games where they start to show it.
Frey’s Pick: NE -6.5
The Miami Dolphins have life after last week’s win, but I don’t want to get caught in the moment with a bad team going up against the team that represented to AFC in the Super Bowl eight months ago. The Patriots have had their struggles in Miami, but I think they get the job done here.
Frey’s Pick: KC -1.5
The Kansas City Chiefs looked like the Chiefs of old until they ran into the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday night. This is a game where they have a chance to prove that they really are the Chiefs of old despite that loss. People have raved about Denver’s defense, but they’ve struggled against the run. Kenneth Walker puts up a big game, and the Chiefs get the win.
Frey’s Pick: WAS +5.5
The Eagles are about done and will start thinking about next spring’s draft pick after this loss. Jayden Daniels, at home and coming off a bye, will be plenty to get this win done.
Frey’s Pick: CHI +3.5
The Bears have a mini bye week after playing last Thursday, they’re getting points, and the offense is continuing to gel. Seattle’s defense did a great job against Patrick Mahomes last week, but I think Chicago is a little bit more complete on that side of the ball. The Bears take this game on the road. Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Season Record Straight Up: 59-47-1
Week 8 NFL Picks
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
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