I don’t know what to do at this point.
Underdogs reigned supreme this weekend, but of course, I only went 1-4 with my underdog picks while both of San Francisco or Buffalo, teams I’ve just picked without any real questions pretty much all year, failed to cover.
In total, I went 3-11 on the week. Good thing we’re close to Halloween because that’s a horrific performance adding onto what has been a truly putrid season so far. Begrudgingly, we move on to the Week 7 NFL picks, and before we do so, I’m shredding the last remnants of my dignity with a look back at last weekend’s bloodbath:
Season Record ATS: 33-60 Frey’s Pick: CHI -3.5
It’s a battle of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, and it couldn’t be coming at a better time. Caleb Williams returned to the field last weekend and played fantastic football. Drake Maye has strung together three straight excellent performances. I think both offenses have the potential to put up big numbers, but New England’s offensive line is very banged up and could be without as many as three starters on Thursday. I’m going to take Chicago to win and cover here.
Frey’s Pick: NO +3.5
The Steelers have looked decent for most of the start to the season, but I don’t love their offense. New Orleans could get Kaden Elliss back at linebacker this week, and with this being a neutral field matchup in Paris, I think both offenses will be a bit sluggish. Again, Steelers win, but I’ll take New Orleans to keep it within four points. Frey’s Pick: NYG +9.5
J.J. McCarthy showed some things at quarterback for the Giants last week, but that was in garbage time against a New Orleans Saints team that hasn’t exactly been great for the past month or so. It remains to be seen if that will be enough to get him a start on Sunday against Houston. I don’t know what to think about the Texans at this point, but I don’t believe they will win this game by double digits. Houston wins; New York keeps it close.
Frey’s Pick: MIN -6.5
This is a nightmare scenario for the Colts. They’re coming off an embarrassing loss to the Tennessee Titans, and now they have to go on the road to face a Minnesota Vikings defense that has been historically good so far this year. Oh, and Brian Flores knows all about what Daniel Jones likes to do at quarterback. Indianapolis’ best hope is relying on Jonathan Taylor, but the Vikings have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game this year. Unless there is a defensive collapse, I think the Vikings win this game by at least a touchdown.
Frey’s Pick: NYJ -4.5
The Miami Dolphins are 0-5, and they are yet to lose one of those games by four or fewer points. Granted, they are coming off a bye week, and the New York Jets are probably the lowest competition they’ve played so far. They do have to travel to MetLife Stadium though. The Dolphins have scored more than 13 points just once, putting up 24 points against the Bengals by scoring a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns in garbage time. I think the Jets find a way to cover this at home.
Frey’s Pick: CAR -3.5
I love what I’m seeing from Bryce Young so far this year. He’s playing smooth football and is having fun out there. If Baker Mayfield is out there for Tampa Bay, my pick maybe would change, but I’m going to take Carolina to win at home.
Frey’s Pick: CIN +2.5
This game is tricky because we don’t know if Lamar Jackson will be back in the lineup yet. And if he does play, how hindered will he be by the ankle injury? One thing we do know: Joe Burrow is playing and coming off a bye week. I’ll take the Bengals to pull off the road upset.
Frey’s Pick: CLE -1.5
Cleveland is 4-2 and unexpectedly finds itself in the playoff mix through six weeks. In a matchup with the 1-5 Titans, the Browns have to be telling themselves that they need to win this game if they want to turn a new leaf this season. I think Cleveland wins this game. Frey’s Pick: ATL +3.5
The 49ers looked concerningly shaky on offense during the second half of their Monday night victory over the Washington Commanders without Mike Evans in the lineup. Now, was part of this because they went into the half with a 17-point lead? Perhaps. But still, down their best receiver and heading into a Falcons matchup that is better than it showed on Sunday against Chicago. I think they bounce back here and hand San Francisco its first loss of the season.
Frey’s Pick: ARI +4.5
The Denver Broncos are 4-2, but that has way more to do with their defensive dominance than it does with anything they’ve accomplished on offense. The Cardinals have been way more feisty than anyone expected them to be this year, and they are coming off a road win against the Los Angeles Rams in which Arizona was a double-digit underdog going in. Can they pull off another upset win at home? I have my doubts about that, but I could see this game coming down to the wire.
Frey’s Pick: LV +4.5
It’s tough to find something that the Los Angeles Rams do well right now, let alone better than everyone else in the NFL like many thought this team would resemble coming into the season. They can’t run the ball. Their pass rush doesn’t have Myles Garrett. Davante Adams is gone now. This very well could be a do-or-die game for the Rams, but I think a talented Raiders team makes it interesting and pulls off the upset win at home.
Frey’s Pick: DET -3.5
The Lions do not have a good defense, but they can run up a scoreboard with the best of them. I also trust their running game more than Green Bay’s so if they get ahead, it will be easier for them to control the clock. Green Bay’s wide receiver room has been great, but with a more one-dimensional offense, I think they’ll have a tougher time in this matchup.
Frey’s Pick: KC +2.5
The Seattle Seahawks have hit a rough patch, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve lost three of their last four games, and they’ve turned the ball over at least three times in each of those losses. Things won’t get any easier this weekend against a Chiefs team that has forced multiple turnovers in four of their first five games. Kenneth Walker will be fired up going back to his old home. Kansas City gets the victory here.
Frey’s Pick: DAL -4.5
This week, we got the shocking news that Jalen Hurts will be out for the rest of the season after being diagnosed with blood clots in his lungs. That diagnosis leaves an Eagles offense that was already sputtering in a very difficult spot. Dallas’ defense just got torched by Green Bay on Sunday night, but there is a big difference between going up against Jordan Love and going up against Tanner McKee. I think Dallas pulls out a road win for the NFC East’s first win since Week 4. Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Season Record Straight Up: 50-42-1
Week 7 NFL Picks
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caroline Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
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