Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season has officially arrived after so much talk of free agent moves, trades, and which draft prospects will step up and deliver.
Now, we finally get to see everything in action starting Wednesday night. And as has become tradition on Vikings Territory, we’ll be starting the season by picking every game from the Week 1 slate and running it all the way through the Super Bowl.
Frey’s Pick: SEA -3.5
The season is beginning Wednesday night with a rematch of February’s Super Bowl. Will the Patriots look as helpless as they did on that night? I don’t think so, but the defending champs will have start the season off on the right foot.
Frey’s Pick: SF +3.5
The 49ers arrived in Australia days ago for this game while the Rams finally got into the air on Tuesday night for their 15-hour flight. These are two completely opposite travel strategies, and I don’t see it ending well for LA. They have a number of new pieces to implement who could start the year slow as it is and adding jet lag into the equation could be a disaster. I’ll take the 49ers to cover and win this game.
Frey’s Pick: NO +6.5
I think the Saints can be a playoff team this year, and in order to accomplish that, they need to win games that they wouldn’t have a year ago. Detroit floundered down the stretch of last season, and their running game may not be as effective without David Montgomery in the backfield. We’ll see how improved their defense is, but the Saints come into the year with a chip on their shoulder and win this game on the road. Frey’s Pick: CHI -2.5
It’s a battle of two former first overall picks in Bryce Young and Caleb Williams and two quarterbacks who took steps forward in 2025 to make the playoffs for the first time. However, I trust Williams more than Young and the structure in Chicago more than the structure in Carolina.
Frey’s Pick: HOU +1.5
This is a very intriguing matchup and has the potential to be the best game of the week. At the end of the day though, I boiled it down to one choice: do you trust the Buffalo Bills offense to start fast, or do you just the Houston Texans defense to start fast? I’m going to lean towards Houston, the team that is my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year.
ALSO READ: Josh Frey’s 2026 NFL Standings + Playoff Predictions
Frey’s Pick: Titans -1.5
Robert Saleh has a revenge game on his hands, and Brian Daboll is back in an offensive coordinator role working with a young quarterback with a big arm (sound familiar?). I don’t think Cam Ward is Josh Allen by any means, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take a positive step or two in his second NFL season.
Frey’s Pick: TB +3.5
Baker Mayfield’s contract dispute is over, and he will go into the season playing free. The Bengals offense should be very good, but the same concern remains: the offensive line. If they struggle to get the running game involved, Tampa Bay will be able to muck things up to slow things down enough for a win.
Frey’s Pick: JAX -7.5
Deshaun Watson is back under center for the Browns, and they no longer have Myles Garrett putting together historic seasons on the defensive side of the ball. There is some talent at wide receiver and on their defense, but the quarterback position has been a black hole since Baker Mayfield left. Jacksonville wins handily.
Frey’s Pick: BAL -3.5
They didn’t get Maxx Crosby, but the Ravens did land Trey Hendrickson and seem to have a blossoming prospect in Ja’Kobi Lane at wide receiver. Lamar Jackson needs to stay healthy and Derrick Henry has to continue being an iron man, but if that happens, Baltimore will be in the Super Bowl conversation once again. I also don’t trust the Colts after their epic collapse down the stretch of the 2025 season. Frey’s Pick: PIT -3.5
Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are great, but someone needs to be able to get them the ball. The Steelers defense will be able to put pressure on Atlanta’s offense, and Aaron Rodgers can still do just enough to manage a game to a win.
Frey’s Pick: Cardinals +9.5
I think the Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL, and they are in serious danger of going 0-17 with their schedule. That being said, I can’t pick any team to win by double digits in Week 1, particularly a Chargers team that has a number of key players coming back from injuries. LA will win and may have a comfortable lead throughout, but a garbage time touchdown or two can change that on the final scoreboard.
Frey’s Pick: MIA +3.5
It may be crazy, but I’m at least a little intrigued to see how this Miami Dolphins offense operates with Malik Willis at the quarterback position. We also know De’Von Achane is a difference maker out of the backfield. The Raiders are trending in the right direction, but I don’t love having a 38-year-old Kirk Cousins behind that offensive line. I’ll take Miami here.
Frey’s Pick: MIN -1.5
Kevin O’Connell has had months to come up with a gameplan here, and the Packers will be without both Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons for this game. Minnesota has young pieces on their defense, but there are plenty of veterans to kickstart this season too. I think the Vikings come out firing and pull out a win at home to start the year.
Frey’s Pick: PHI -5.5
We might be in store for a season from hell for the Washington Commanders. They lost Laremy Tunsil for the season, and it’s worst-case scenario to be going up against this Eagles defensive front in Week 1. Jayden Daniels doesn’t have the greatest group of receivers to work with, either. Philly starts the year 1-0.
Frey’s Pick: NYG +2.5
We all know weird things happen in Week 1, and we especially know weird things happen in NFC East matchups. There’s excitement around the returns of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo on offense for the Giants, and their defensive front is filled with ridiculous athletes. It’s also relevant that the Cowboys just lost their Pro Bowl LG Tyler Smith for at least a month. I think the Giants pick up an upset at home. Frey’s Pick: DEN +2.5
I picked the Chiefs to finish 10-7 and cling to a playoff spot. Part of the reasoning behind that was belief that they will start slow as they adjust to fitting new pieces into their defense, Patrick Mahomes getting back into a flow following ACL surgery, and Travis Kelce enters what may be his final season. Going up against a team that was in the AFC Championship Game last year and has one of the best defenses in the league is a tough task to handle, even if it is at home.
Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Week 1 NFL Picks
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
