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Tarik Skubal makes his Dodgers debut Tuesday at the Cubs
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4 min read
This week’s Dodgers-Cubs series from Wrigley Field already was already highly anticipated because it’s a potential National League playoff preview. Then there’s the matchup of MVP candidates Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers and Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong. But now another layer of intrigue has been added for the second game of the set Tuesday night as Tarik Skubal’s makes his L.A debut, as well his first career start at historic Wrigley.
It’s set for an 8:05 ET p.m. first pitch and will be televised on TBS. The Dodgers aim to avoid a season-high fifth straight loss, and they no longer hold the best record in the National League — that belongs to Milwaukee. Los Angeles is a -192 favorite in the consensus MLB odds, with Chicago a +171 underdog on the money line, and the Over/Under for total runs is set at 9.
Is it fair the Dodgers got Skubal? Probably not. But I don’t fault the Dodgers for being so well-run that they can afford to give up three pretty good prospects for Skubal and not bat an eye. Other teams could have easily beaten what Los Angeles gave to Detroit, and that includes my Cubbies – who then pivoted to starting pitchers Kevin Gausman from Toronto and Clay Holmes from the Mets instead and also added some bullpen and outfield help.
I won’t go too much into Skubal’s effect on all the futures odds, as that has largely been addressed by now, but the Dodgers did move from +190 at DraftKings to three-peat as World Series champions to +150 following the deal and from +105 to -110 to win another pennant.
Not crazy movement, because the Dodgers already were favored and Skubal can only help once every four days. And even before the deal, their projected playoff rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani already likely was the best in the majors.
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Dodgers-Cubs MLB same-game parlay
- Chicago alt +3.5
- Dodgers win race to three runs
DraftKings SGP price: +138
Perhaps the more important impact of the Skubal trade is that Los Angeles kept him from moving to potential NL threats such as the Cubs, Brewers and Braves. Skubal is actually the second straight former Cy Young winner traded midseason after Cleveland shipped Shane Bieber to Toronto last summer. Needless to say, this is a much bigger deal with Skubal in his prime as the reigning two-time AL Cy winner.
Many are comparing this to 2017, when Houston acquired 34-year-old prime Justin Verlander from Detroit and went on to win the World Series. Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in the regular season for the Astros and then was terrific in six playoff games. Skubal is five years younger and also pitching for a new contract in free agency, although I will say that guys who switch clubs for the first time in their careers can struggle at first with their new team. Perhaps because they’re trying too hard to impress new teammates.
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Skubal (7-5, 2.79 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of nine starts since returning from elbow surgery but had spent his entire career in the AL. That can matter some (it’s why he has never pitched at Wrigley), although certainly not as much these days will full-time interleague play. Skubal did face the Cubs last year at Comerica Park in Detroit and allowed one earned over 7.2 innings in a victory.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Skubal at 6.4 innings, 7.6 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.6 earned runs tonight, while DraftKings has him at Over/Under 7.5 Ks and -150 to personally win. The site also offers an updated season futures prop of Over/Under 191.5 strikeouts with Skubal at 116; I’d go Under because of his elbow surgery and the likelihood that L.A. will treat him with kid gloves.
Alex Bregman is about the only Cub with sustained success off Skubal career at 7-for-15 with a double, triple and homer. Crow-Armstrong has a single in three at-bats.
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I don’t know if you have noticed, but PCA is now only +100 for NL MVP, barely behind Ohtani (-130), who about a month ago remained a massive -1600 favorite, while PCA was +3500 then at DraftKings. But that knee injury has slowed Ohtani a bit at the plate and taken him off the mound entirely, and Crow-Armstrong has been raking. No other player is in the picture.
Ohtani, incidentally, is 0-for-1 career off tonight’s Cubs starter Javier Assad (6-1, 3.75 ERA), who has done really well in 2026 as a swingman back and forth from the bullpen to help fill spots in an injury-ravaged rotation. Ideally, Assad is a reliever and with the Gausman and Holmes additions, he might be ticketed back to the bullpen. He earned a second straight turn through the rotation after a strong start last Thursday vs. the Cardinals in which Assad allowed one earned run and struck out six over 4.1 innings. The model has him at 5.1 innings, 3.9 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs.
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Nice start to the week on MLB parlays with Monday’s Padres-Diamondbacks three-legger cashing at +151. I’d expect a Dodgers victory, but the Cubs and that terrific offense getting +3.5 at home at a reasonable price is a no-brainer. That said, you’d certainly expect L.A. to get to three runs first off Assad. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
