As an NFL team exec, I always was concerned about the mindset of our teams in the game before the bye week. The team has been going hard since late July and players naturally are looking forward to a break during the bye week.
As the Vikings head to New Orleans to take on a 1-3 Saints team coming off an embarrassing 45-24 home loss to division-rival Atlanta, are the Vikings totally focused on getting the victory to stay perfect at 5-0 or are they planning bye-week vacations to a beach or back to their hometown? The good news is the Vikings are 3-1 in the game before the bye in the Kevin O’Connell coaching era including a win over the Browns in London last season.
Aside from bye concerns, the Vikings are dealing with a lot of injury issues heading into Sunday (but so are the Saints). Starting left guard Donovan Jackson is out for at least the regular season with a knee meniscus injury that required surgery. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw is in concussion protocol. If he’s out on Sunday, the left side of the offensive line will likely be manned by Joe Huber at guard and Ryan Van Demark at tackle.
The Saints were thrashed by the Falcons’ rushing attack (205 yards) with Bijan Robinson (145 yards, 2 TDs) and Brian Robinson (62 yards, 3 TDs) running wild. Can the Vikings take advantage of the 30th-ranked run defense with Aaron Jones having a big game (and possibly some contribution we’ve been waiting to see from rookie Demond Claiborne) to set up play action for Kyler Murray?
The Vikings hope to have Justin Jefferson back from his ankle injury to play in his home town. He’s been limited in practice this week but says he hopes to play Sunday. He may be joined at wide receiver by newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr. as insurance against Jordan Addison’s hamstring being a problem (O’Connell says it’s minor but he was limited in Thursday’s practice) and due to lack of production from Jauan Jennings (two catches for nine yards in three games) and Tai Felton (one catch, 14 yards).
The Vikings defense will throw their usual Brian Flores-orchestrated blitzes at second year QB Tyler Shough who has been sacked 12 times (fourth-most) but has thrown nine TD passes with three picks and ranks third in passing yards (301 yards per game). The Vikings-Saints series has been exciting over the years with Minnesota winning the last two meetings (in the 2022 and 2023 regular seasons) and several memorable playoff games including the Minneapolis Miracle game in 2017 won by the Vikings (Case Keenum to Stefon Diggs), the 2019 overtime wild card win in New Orleans (on Kirk Cousins’ TD pass to Kyle Rudolph) and the 2009 NFC title game won by the Saints (in the Brett Favre Bountygate game).
1. Run the ball with Jones carrying the load and perhaps Claiborne breaking a long run: the offensive line is a concern with the injuries but Jones comes off a 94 yard rushing game and should have success against the shaky Saints run D that may again be without one of their best run defenders—Kaden Elliss (calf) who missed the Atlanta game and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Robinson’s 59-yard TD run on the third play of the game set the stage for the Atlanta blowout win.
2. Murray build on last week’s strong finish (16 of 18 for 135 yards in the second half and 4 of 4 for 62 yards on the final drive to kill the clock): the run game should set up play action passes to Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, and possibly Beckham. Perhaps we’ll see more bootlegs and rollouts from Murray this week and a few more runs with better results than his six carries for 16 yards last week.
The Saints have only eight sacks led by Chase Young (3.5) who the Vikings should chip on as he rushes from the edge. 37-year old Cam Jordan, an eight-time Pro Bowler who is the son of great ex-Viking tight end Steve Jordan, is playing about half the snaps but is without a sack thus far. Edge Carl Granderson missed last week with an ankle injury and has been limited in practice this week.
3. Continue to protect the ball and win the turnover battle: the Vikings are plus 5 (second-best with seven takeaways—second-most) and the Saints are minus 5 (second-worst with only three takeaways-fifth fewest). The Vikings have only two giveaways this season (two Murray interceptions). The Saints have lost five fumbles. Big edge here to the Purple.
4. Defense stop the run: the Vikings want to play the run better than last week when Ollie Gordon ran for 100 yards including the 53-yard TD. For the season, the Vikings rank seventh and need to shore up against a weak New Orleans rushing attack with top back Travis Etienne on IR and 31-year old Alvin Kamara the starter who had only 23 rushing yards last game.
5. Blitz, pressure, and sack Shough: New Orleans has allowed 12 sacks (fourth-most) and Vikings lead the league with 16 sacks (5.5 for Dallas Turner to rank second in the league). Shough saw plenty of blitzes from the Falcons and was pressured on 49% of his drop backs (only sacked twice). Flores loves going after young QBs and Shough as a second-year player will see the usual 70% + blitz rate from the Vikings D.
Dallas Turner leads the NFL with 29 pressures and his 5.5 sacks ranks second to Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau (six sacks). Flores needs to scheme Turner into single blocking or being unblocked as he’s often done this season. 6. Secondary cover several quality receivers: Chris Olave is one of the league’s top wide receivers. His 491 receiving yards ranks second after earning 2nd Team All-Pro honors last season with 100 catches, 1,163 yards and nine TDs. Byron Murphy and Isaiah Rodgers will have their hands full with Olave if they’re in single coverage due to blitzes. Olave was limited in Thursday’s practice as he deals with a foot injury.
WR Devaughn Vele (21 catches, 226 yards, 2 TDs) and TE Juwan Johnson (21 catches, 232 yards, 3 TDs) also are threats who need to be well covered.
7. Win on third down on both sides of the ball: after going 2 of 15 against the Bucs, the Vikings were much better against Miami (8 of 18 on third down and 1 of 1 on fourth down) while the defense held the Dolphins to 2 of 9 on third down. The Saints D allowed the Falcons to convert 50% of third downs (4 of 8) and the Saints were 9 of 19 on third and fourth down but several of their conversions were after the game got out of hand.
8. Solid special teams: this should be a big edge for the Vikings with Myles Price the top returner in the NFL on both kickoffs and punts while the Saints rank 27th in each category. And Will Reichard has outkicked ex-Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson (Reichard 12 for 12 on field goals and has made 31 straight, longest active streak and 56 straight kicks including extra points while Carlson is 5 of 7 on field goals and has missed an extra point.
Brett Thorson returns as the Vikings punter with his hamstring healed, replacing Johnny Hekker who punted poorly last week.
9. Get back to limiting penalties: the Vikings had nine for 95 yards in Tampa and 11 for 85 yards vs. Miami (including four false starts at home) after only three penalties in each of the first two games.
10. Handle the crowd noise: it will be louder in the indoor Superdome than it was in the Vikings’ earlier road wins at Chicago and Tampa Bay. This will be something to watch and see if the Vikings’ work in practice this week on cadence and handling crowd noise leads to fewer pre-snap penalties. Prediction
This is the last game of a three-game home stand for the Saints who have lost the first two to the Raiders and Falcons with their defense allowing 35 points to Las Vegas and 45 points to Atlanta. The Saints rank last in points allowed (32 per game). The Vikings are No. 1 in scoring defense with only 12.8 points per game against their stout D that has hit the top five in yards allowed (5th). The Saints D ranks 26th in yardage given up.
The Vikings should expect to face a desperate team after a poor performance last week on an emotional night paying tribute to the 20th anniversary of the Saints return to the Superdome post-Hurricane Katrina with a lot of former star players such as Drew Brees in attendance.
I see turnovers as the key and the Vikings enter with a big edge (plus 5 turnover ratio vs. minus 5 for the Saints). I think Murray builds on his good finish last week with Jefferson and Hockenson having big games plus a 100-yard rushing game from Jones will aid the Purple cause.
New Orleans is scoring lots of points (26.3 average to rank 10th) but the Vikings defense will limit them and force a couple turnovers. I’ve got the Vikings winning 30-20 to hit their bye week at 5-0.
Around the NFL in Week 5
1. In the NFC North, the 3-1 Bears are at the 2-2 Packers. Chicago’s running game has been terrific and Tyson Bagent comes off a win over the Jets (with Caleb Williams still out this week). The Packers are too short-handed on the offensive line and they’re badly missing Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs. This game is especially critical for the Packers to win at home but I think the Bears will emerge victorious. The no defense (last-ranked), 2-2 Lions have a dangerous matchup at 1-3 Arizona in the desert heat. This should be a high scoring game that the Lions will find a way to win.
2. The game of the week is the 4-0 49ers at the 3-1 Seahawks. Seattle is the healthier team and I’m picking them to win in front of their boisterous fans.
Another exciting matchup is the 3-1 Bills at the 2-2 Rams on Monday night. Both teams have been turning it over too much (7 giveaways by Buffalo, 8 by the Rams). The L.A. defense is playing well without Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. They rank second in yards allowed and Buffalo is 27th. I pick the Rams if Matthew Stafford does a better job of avoiding interceptions (six in four games after eight all of last season).
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year … More about Jeff Diamond
Keys to a Vikings Road Win Over the Saints to Reach 5-0
