Bullet point summary by AI
- The Boston Red Sox will likely mistakenly keep outfielder Jarren Duran past the upcoming MLB trade deadline instead of dealing him.
- Duran’s batting numbers have plummeted significantly since his 2024 breakout, causing an outfield logjam on a roster desperate for right-handed hitters.
- Trading him now secures solid value and fixes roster construction before his trade worth drops even further due to continued struggles.
A wildly disappointing Boston Red Sox season is bound to lead to major action being taken at the deadline. Rentals like Aroldis Chapman, Danny Coulombe and Isiah Kiner-Falefa feel like locks to get dealt, and if we’re being honest, Craig Breslow should consider trading some of the team’s controllable players as well, with Jarren Duran as a prime example.
Duran was shopped all offseason long but was ultimately never dealt. While he should be traded by August’s deadline, there’s reason to believe the Red Sox will keep him yet again.
Why the Red Sox might foolishly hold onto Jarren Duran past the trade deadline
Admittedly, this isn’t the best time to trade Duran, who has been perhaps the biggest disappointment of the 2026 Red Sox. Expectations were high for Duran, a player who received MVP votes in 2024, but even with a strong month of May, he enters Friday’s action slashing .210/.269/.383 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI. His 76 wRC+ is lower than guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andruw Monasterio. It’s been a slog.
This is exactly why Breslow will likely hold onto him, as we’ve seen him do that already. It looked like Duran was on his way towards establishing himself as one of MLB’s premier outfielders after his breakout 2024 campaign, but 2025 was a down year. Even with that, though, Breslow held out for offers he deemed were worthwhile and was unwilling to settle for anything less.
Breslow assumed Duran would be back in his elite form, but he’s been even worse this season than he was in 2025. Breslow assumed that Duran’s value would skyrocket back to where it was in 2024, but it’s gone in the other direction instead.
Breslow is likely going to hold onto Duran in hopes that he can recapture his elite value, but is that really a good idea? Are we sure Duran will ever revert to his 2024 form? Even if he does, will he ever have truly elite value, the kind where he’d net an ace, knowing that he’s only under club control through 2028?
Why the Red Sox should be willing to take what they can get for Jarren Duran
The Red Sox can clear from their outfield logjam
The fact of the matter is that Duran is not a good fit on this team. The Red Sox have a long-discussed outfield logjam consisting of Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. Anthony’s injury has allowed the other three outfielders and Masataka Yoshida to play just about every day, but what about when Anthony is healthy? It wouldn’t be hard to argue that Duran is the worst of the bunch.
The Red Sox are stacked with outfielders, making playing time for Duran, an outfielder, hard to pinpoint when they’re healthy. The Red Sox are also stacked with left-handed hitters, with Anthony, Abreu, Yoshida and Marcelo Mayer all lefties. Their best right-handed hitter is probably Willson Contreras, which partly explains their offensive struggles.
The Red Sox need more right-handed hitters and more infield help, and Duran checks neither of those boxes. Why not trade him for someone who fits better?
This could be the Red Sox’s last chance to get anything of value for Jarren Duran
It’s never ideal to trade a player when they’re having a down year, but again, I’m not convinced that Duran’s 2024 season wasn’t a fluke. Even if you’re convinced he’ll get back to that elite level, is it worth being wrong and potentially losing even more value from Duran?
Even with him having a brutal year, Duran, given his two additional years of control and his track record, can bring the Red Sox solid value back in a trade. The longer they wait to trade him, the less control he’ll have, and the longer he struggles, the less teams are going to want to bet on a bounce back. These things will impact his value negatively, even if he’s able to hit better.
The risk/reward just isn’t there, in my opinion. Keeping Duran risks him continuing to struggle, losing even more value. Trading him makes the Red Sox’s roster fit better while ensuring they get something of value for Duran without risking him continuing to struggle. The only way in which trading Duran ages poorly would be if he were to break out with his next team, in which case you simply need to tip your cap.
Craig Breslow is too stubborn to trade Jarren Duran
The Red Sox should trade Duran, but that’s been the case for a while now, and Breslow has held on because he is stubborn. He is only willing to trade Duran if he feels the value is right.
And that’s a shame. I understand where he’s coming from, but the Red Sox need to make changes. It’s clear this roster does not work, and part of the problem is their outfield configuration. Even if the value isn’t where he wants it to be, the Red Sox should be eager to make a deal happen.
Knowing the executive Breslow is, though, don’t hold your breath.
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