Bullet point summary by AI
- One metric stands out as the best predictor of October success: performance against winning teams.
- Two franchises are already proving their legitimacy by dominating the league’s best regular-season records.
- Their current standings against elite competition could reshape postseason expectations for both teams.
It’s one thing to beat up on bad teams. Sure, beating up on the bad teams can get you to the MLB playoffs, but are you going to win a World Series without beating the quality clubs? In most cases, the teams that play well against winning teams in the regular season are the best bets to do so in October.
For example, the Milwaukee Brewers had the best record in the majors last season, but were only the fourth-best team against winning teams. Sure enough, they were blown out in the NLCS by a Dodgers team that had consistently been better than them against winning teams. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how each team is going against winning teams as of Saturday, June 20.
AL East
|
Rank |
Team |
Record vs.>.500 Teams |
Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Tampa Bay Rays |
17-17 |
42-31 |
|
2 |
New York Yankees |
14-15 |
46-29 |
|
3 |
Toronto Blue Jays |
19-26 |
38-39 |
|
4 |
Boston Red Sox |
13-20 |
30-43 |
|
5 |
Baltimore Orioles |
18-28 |
35-42 |
The AL East, the division that’s always among the best in the sport, doesn’t feature a single team with a winning record against winning teams. While the New York Yankees are bound to change that with more opportunities (their 29 games against winning teams are the fewest in the majors), for now, this division has some explaining to do. All Boston Red Sox fans can do when looking at this is wonder how they’ve been almost as good against winning teams (seven games under .500) as they’ve been against sub-.500 opponents (six games under .500).
AL Central
|
Rank |
Team |
Record vs.>.500 Teams |
Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Detroit Tigers |
17-18 |
32-44 |
|
2 |
Chicago White Sox |
19-22 |
39-36 |
|
3 |
Cleveland Guardians |
17-20 |
40-36 |
|
4 |
Kansas City Royals |
17-26 |
32-45 |
|
5 |
Minnesota Twins |
13-22 |
36-41 |
Well, well, well, what do we have here? Yes, the Detroit Tigers, arguably the most disappointing team in the sport to this point, have the best record against winning teams in the AL Central. Now, this isn’t saying much, as every team in this division is under .500 against winning teams, but it’s hard to believe that the Tigers have been mostly solid against formidable foes yet are 12 games under .500 and are likely to trade Tarik Skubal. Baseball can be a cruel sport sometimes.
AL West
|
Rank |
Team |
Record vs.>.500 Teams |
Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Texas Rangers |
23-19 |
36-40 |
|
2 |
Seattle Mariners |
19-18 |
39-38 |
|
3 |
Athletics |
16-23 |
38-38 |
|
4 |
Houston Astros |
14-22 |
36-41 |
|
5 |
Los Angeles Angels |
15-31 |
30-47 |
The Texas Rangers are a tough team to evaluate. Their 23-19 record against winning teams isn’t only the best in the AL West, but it’s the best in the American League, yet they’re four games under .500 and in third place in arguably the worst division in the league. This goes to show that Texas can be tough to beat in the postseason, but might not even be consistent enough to get there. Time will only tell.
NL East
|
Rank |
Team |
Record vs.>.500 Teams |
Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Atlanta Braves |
30-16 |
48-27 |
|
2 |
Miami Marlins |
25-22 |
39-38 |
|
3 |
Philadelphia Phillies |
26-24 |
40-35 |
|
4 |
Washington Nationals |
25-27 |
40-37 |
|
5 |
New York Mets |
20-30 |
34-41 |
Nobody has been better against winning teams than the Atlanta Braves, who are a whopping 30-16 against the best the league has to offer. For reference, Atlanta won just 39 games against winning teams last season, going 39-55 against teams that finished above .500 in the regular season. If you had any doubts about whether this Braves team is legit or not, perhaps you shouldn’t anymore.
NL Central
|
Rank |
Team |
Record vs.>.500 Teams |
Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Milwaukee Brewers |
30-19 |
45-29 |
|
2 |
St. Louis Cardinals |
23-20 |
40-34 |
|
3 |
Chicago Cubs |
23-24 |
40-37 |
|
4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates |
19-26 |
38-38 |
|
5 |
Cincinnati Reds |
14-28 |
36-39 |
The Milwaukee Brewers have lost their last two games to the Braves, but are still the second-best team against foes with winning records. Say what you want about how this team has consistently underperformed in October, but the Brewers were just 46-38 against winning teams in 2025. They’ve been much better against the best teams this season, and that could lead to different results in the postseason.
NL West
|
Rank |
Team |
Record vs.>.500 Teams |
Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Los Angeles Dodgers |
26-17 |
49-27 |
|
2 |
San Diego Padres |
19-23 |
39-36 |
|
3 |
San Francisco Giants |
27-36 |
31-45 |
|
4 |
Arizona Diamondbacks |
11-26 |
39-36 |
|
5 |
Colorado Rockies |
13-36 |
29-47 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers, to the surprise of absolutely nobody, are the class of the NL West against winning teams, but can we talk about the Arizona Diamondbacks? Arizona is currently tied for the third Wild Card spot in the NL, but they have the fewest wins against winning teams of anybody in the league. They deserve credit for beating up on subpar competition, but it’s hard to take them seriously when they’ve performed this poorly against the caliber of teams they’d run into in the postseason.
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