Hagen Smith and the 6 prospects who will define MLB’s playoff push

With less than two months left in the regular season, the trade deadline drew a line in the sand. Half the league is still focused on a final postseason push. For those hoping to contend, but who didn’t necessarily address every need in the final trade frenzy, there’s still an avenue for major roster upgrades: prospect promotion.

Nothing is guaranteed with an August or September call-up, of course, but as Trey Yesavage, Cam Schlittler and others proved last season, a talented prospect can provide an invaluable spark down the stretch — and even in the playoffs. These top prospects could change the shape of the MLB postseason race:

LHP Hagen Smith, Chicago White Sox

Despite four straight losses, the White Sox sit comfortably atop the NL Central and currently command the No. 2 seed in the American League playoff picture. Cleveland, Detroit and others could get in their way still, but it’s easy to believe in the Southsiders’ potent blend of offensive talent and youthful exuberance.

If there’s one pitfall with this Chicago roster, it’s the pitching staff. Davis Martin is mid-regression and beyond Sean Burke, the options aren’t all that appealing. Luis Castillo, their splashy deadline addition, is well past his prime. He gave up five earned runs in four innings in his White Sox debut. Noah Schultz, Chicago’s preseason No. 1 prospect, has struggled to a 6.06 ERA, and was pulled after a third of an inning in his most recent start.

Enter Hagen Smith and Tanner McDougal, Chicago’s two best pitching prospects, who were called up in unison on Saturday afternoon. McDougal has an explosive fastball but struggles with command. Smith is the better prospect and probably Chicago’s best bet at a true late-season upgrade with postseason equity.

Smith, a 22-year-old southpaw, comes with his own command issues, with a middling 4.32 ERA in 58.1 Triple-A innings. He also has 87 strikeouts, however, with a monster fastball-slider combo, which he can mix and match to perfection. The lack of a consistent third offering could be problematic once MLB hitters adjust, but Smith’s fastball explodes through the zone and his slider falls off the table. If he can locate those pitches with any success, he certainly has the capacity for a two- or three-month Linsanity run.

Given the meager status of Chicago’s rotation, there’s a world in which Smith is the White Sox’ most effective starter in October and a real needle-mover for a team that can put runs on the board in a hurry.

OF Theo Gillen, Tampa Bay Rays

Theo Gillen has dominated High-A and Double-A ball for the Rays this season, with eight homers, 11 stolen bases and a .959 OPS in 32 games since his latest promotion. It would require an aggressive approach from the Rays to get him to the majors this season, potentially skipping Triple-A altogether. But Gillen — FanSided’s No. 28 overall prospect — seems plenty capable of pulling it off.

Tampa made a couple splashy additions at the deadline, most notably acquiring Liam Hicks from the Marlins, but there’s still a noticeable power void in the back half of their lineup. The Rays are well-stocked on lefty bats, but Gillen is an immediate offensive upgrade over Cedric Mullins in center field. He has the speed and defensive chops to check the other boxes that Tampa values, too.

Gillen exhibits power to the pull side, with the speed to leg out extra-base knocks and put pressure on an opposing pitcher. At 20 years old, he’s ahead of the curve when it comes to working counts and drawing walks. This is perhaps the most ambitious (and maybe unrealistic) name on the list, but if Tampa can unearth a legitimate fifth bat in the lineup behind Hicks, Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero, it massively improves their outlook in comparison to New York, Boston and other American League heavyweights.

SS Franklin Arias, Boston Red Sox

Franklin Arias is the top-ranked Red Sox prospect, with three home runs and a .963 OPS in his first 11 games at the Triple-A level. The 20-year-old has scaled the ladder quickly and seems destined for a late-season promotion. Coming into the season, there were questions about what exactly the path was for Arias. Now, with Trevor Story hurt and his production in free fall, the shortstop position is wide open. Especially after Marcelo Mayer was dealt to San Francisco, which felt like a not-so-subtle indication of where Boston’s developmental priorities lie.

It’s also notable that Boston went all-in on Adley Rutschman at the deadline, rather than trading for another infielder like Zach Neto or Otto Lopez. That sort of decision feels rooted in the belief that Arias, with a super refined hit tool and elite defensive chops up the middle, can contribute sooner than later.

Arias, who’s hitting .319 across Double-A and Triple-A this season, has always displayed great feel at the plate, with the ability to spray contact to all fields with a quick, compact swing. If he can keep bumping up his slug, however, Arias has a chance to become a truly special all-around talent. The Red Sox believe in him, and there’s no reason to leave any stone unturned with the American League is so weak — and when Boston just put the Dodgers through the wringer is domineering fashion a week ago.

RHP Bryce Mayer, Houston Astros

The Astros‘ pitching situation is rather dire. Ronel Blanco, Cristian Javier and Hayden Wesneski all recently came back from Tommy John surgery, and none have looked particularly sharp. Tatsuya Imai, Houston’s high-profile offseason addition, has certainly popped in flashes, but he has largely struggled with his transition stateside. It’s hard to imagine the Astros trusting Imai with more than bulk work in the postseason. Mike Burrows is hurt — and he hasn’t really lived up to expectations this season.

Beyond Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert, essentially, it’s hard to find a starting pitcher the Astros can take into October without reservations. That opens the door wide for 24-year-old right-hander Bryce Mayer, who’s expected to make his Triple-A debut today. Mayer put up a 2.61 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 69.0 Double-A innings, emerging as Houston’s top pitching prospect — and certainly their most advanced as we enter the stretch run.

Equipped with three plus pitches in his fastball, curveball and slider, Mayer doesn’t throw very hard, but he has a deceptive three-quarters release that puts a lot of spin and carry on each delivery. Mayer has improved his command in each season to date and there’s no reason for the Astros not to be aggressive. This roster is too old and much too expensive to pass up the opportunity to sneak through a winnable American League.

1B/OF Ralphy Velazquez, Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland put together a solid deadline, but the results haven’t manifested yet, with six straight losses prior to Friday’s victory in Chicago. The Guardians have been unafraid to promote from within this season. Top outfielder Chase DeLauter was on the Opening Day roster, while second baseman Travis Bazzana followed close behind (and earned an All-Star berth). Shortstop Angel Genao recently earned his call-up and went 4-for-5 in his debut (now 5-for-13 at the plate in his first three MLB games).

Next on the docket is Ralphy Velazquez, FanSided’s No. 26 overall prospect. A former catcher turned first baseman, his path is blocked on the surface by the Nathaniel Lowe trade. Then again, Velazquez has trace experience in left field, where he could theoretically find a home if the Guardians bump Steven Kwan back to center. Or, Cleveland can simply install Velazquez (or Lowe) as the everyday DH, moving DeLauter to the outfield full-time and demoting a struggling Petey Halpin (another rookie) back to Triple-A.

No matter how you slice the positional pie, Velazquez’s bat is probably worth getting in the lineup. Cleveland has fallen short year after year due to an inability to slug in the playoffs. Velazquez has 10 homers with a .782 OPS in 57 Triple-A games this season. In classic Guardians fashion, he’s a very disciplined hitter, with a ceiling far beyond those numbers. Velazquez draws walks, only swings in the zone and displays considerable power to the pull side.

He’s probably the most explosive and refined bat in the Guardians pipeline, and there’s a chance he’s batting cleanup (or close to it) once October rolls around. Cleveland is in serious need of a shot in the arm. Velazquez is so clearly their best bet.

OF Walker Jenkins, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota recently called up 23-year-old shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, their No. 2 prospect. He homered in his MLB debut. Next up is No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins — FanSided’s No. 4 overall prospect — who’s enjoying a productive Triple-A season, up to an .829 OPS. The Culpepper call-up (and a buy-not-sell deadline) is proof that the Twins are going for it, so there’s no reason to get cute with Jenkins’ service time.

Outfield has generally been a position of strength for the Twins, but Byron Buxton’s recent IL stint left the Twins exposed. Second-year outfielder Alan Roden has not found his swing in the majors yet, while Luke Keaschall is both positionally malleable and not very intimidating at the plate. There’s a clear path for Jenkins, whose speed, defensive instincts and advanced plate approach are complemented by latent power.

Jenkins is more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter right now, but he generates high exit velocities and there’s reason to believe he can become a 20-20 guy before long. In the meantime, the Twins will take the extra-base knocks. Jenkins makes contact consistently and shows both speed and smarts on the base paths. He’s a solid glove out in center field, but his arm is really well-tailored to right field, where Minnesota will probably find more use for him once Buxton returns.

He’s only 21, with a lengthy injury history and a somewhat stop-start pro career to date, but Jenkins is the biggest talent on this list. He can change the Twins’ fortunes in an ultra-tight Wild Card race.

C Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres

Much has been made of San Diego’s paper-thin farm system, but A.J. Preller has managed to retain Ethan Salas through multiple aggressive buying sprees. That could pay off down the stretch, with the Padres picking up steam and gaining ground in a competitive NL Wild Card race. Salas, only 20 years old, has torn through the minors, now up to Triple-A with a 1.071 OPS and eight RBI in his first seven games at that level.

Luis Campusano’s sudden resurrection means catcher is no longer a position of dire need for the Padres, but it’s probably still worth seeing how Salas’ bat plays down the stretch. Campusano is a fine defensive backstop, but the Padres can move him to DH without losing sleep. Salas is one of the most impressive catching prospects in recent memory — with elite framing and glovework, plus the arm to hold opposing runners in check. He can call a game tomorrow in the majors, no problem.

Salas’ bat has long been the biggest question mark around his MLB future. He is going to shine behind home plate, but if he’s just another gifted defensive catcher who can’t really hit, the Padres will consider his development a missed opportunity. Thankfully, Salas’ offensive production has really perked up this season. He will probably never qualify as a slugger, but Salas is showing more power from the left side to complement excellent bat-to-ball skills.

Letting Salas work with a revamped Padres rotation and MLB’s best bullpen, while hoping he can keep his head above water as a hitter, is a worthwhile experiment for red-hot San Diego.