Was Thunder-Celtics an NBA Finals preview?

The Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Boston Celtics 118-112 in a blockbuster matchup between two NBA Finals favorites Wednesday.

Behind Chet Holmgren‘s double-double (23 factors, 15 rebounds) and MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s 34 factors, the Western Convention-leading Thunder have defeated Boston twice this season and improved their report in opposition to Japanese Convention groups to 22-1.

Boston’s Jayson Tatum had 33 factors, however finally the Celtics faltered late regardless of the group tying the NBA report for 3-point makes an attempt (63) in a non-overtime recreation. The Thunder used a 20-14 run to complete the sport because the Celtics cooled from past the arc, taking pictures 1-9 on 3-pointers within the closing eight minutes.

Wednesday’s recreation at TD Backyard showcased what makes each these groups elite: powerful protection by the Thunder, a barrage of 3-point taking pictures by the Celtics and each groups’ stars making massive performs. NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Zach Kram and Brian Windhorst break down OKC’s win, what it means for either side and what to anticipate from these two juggernauts in the course of the playoffs and past.

Largest takeaway from tonight’s recreation?

Tim Bontemps: That Oklahoma Metropolis must be considered as the most important menace to take down Boston and turn into NBA champions.

There’s been loads of makes an attempt from all corners of the league to attempt to pour chilly water on the Thunder’s probabilities. However OKC has now swept the season sequence with the Celtics, pulling away within the second half of each video games, regardless of Holmgren lacking the primary assembly in Oklahoma Metropolis in January and Jalen Williams sitting out Wednesday night time in Boston.

The Thunder are a deep, versatile bunch that may win in a wide range of methods. Gilgeous-Alexander confirmed why he’s an MVP candidate together with his efficiency. Holmgren had 23 factors and 15 rebounds, and his play with Isaiah Hartenstein paid dividends all through the competition, particularly within the minutes when Gilgeous-Alexander sat out at first of the second and fourth quarters — minutes the Thunder gained on this recreation.

These are the 2 most versatile groups within the league. Each of the video games have been fabulously entertaining. However there is no one else who has confronted the Celtics this season and made them look extra susceptible than this Thunder group has.

Sure, this OKC squad underneath coach Mark Daigneault is the youngest group within the league. Sure, questions stay about how Williams, specifically, will deal with a secondary creation position within the postseason, after struggling in that place final season.

However the concept anybody else must be favored to win the West is silly. The Thunder confirmed that once more Wednesday night time.

Brian Windhorst: OK, so the Thunder can take away so many issues from this recreation. Holmgren’s capability to deal with an enormous position underneath strain. The success of each their small and large lineups. The may of their bench depth. Even racking up a ton of free throws, one thing they hardly ever do as they’re twenty seventh within the league in makes an attempt.

Having mentioned that, the Celtics have been 5-of-27 on 3-pointers within the second half. This isn’t to say all of it comes right down to 3-point taking pictures, however when the Celtics do not make their 3s they turn into susceptible. This Celtics group is improbable and susceptible. This season has taught us this and this recreation bolstered it.

Zach Kram: The Thunder aren’t afraid of the Celtics’ 3-point assault. Boston tried a record-tying 63 3-pointers, making 20 of them; on the finish of the primary quarter, a whopping 22 of Boston’s 24 shot makes an attempt had come from past the arc.

The Celtics began scorching however cooled with a 5-for-27 mark on 3s within the second half — harking back to their 9-for-46 displaying of their loss in Oklahoma Metropolis in January. On most nights, the Celtics will make extra of their jumpers. However regardless of Boston’s eagerness to shoot 3s, the Thunder did not compromise their defensive rules. They supplied aggressive assistance on Boston’s drives, compelled kickout passes to the perimeter and invited the Celtics to fireside away from deep. That technique labored in each conferences this season.

The Celtics is perhaps equally comfortable to have taken so many 3s, given coach Joe Mazzulla’s offensive imaginative and prescient. However they have been missing a backup plan Wednesday — which is perhaps solved in a future matchup if Kristaps Porzingis is wholesome and capable of weaponize his potent post-up recreation.

Boston additionally missed Porzingis’s presence on protection. The Thunder tried 22 pictures on the rim and produced factors on 19 of them (14 made pictures and 5 taking pictures fouls drawn). Al Horford is an ageless surprise who tallied 18 factors, 10 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal in Wednesday’s bout, however he isn’t an elite rim protector. Opponents have transformed 65% of their makes an attempt on the rim in opposition to Horford this season, versus simply 52% in opposition to Porzingis.

What is going to decide the size of every group’s playoff run?

Bontemps: For Boston, principally well being — and to a lesser extent focus. When Boston is totally wholesome, it is exhausting to see a group beating it 4 instances out of seven. The Celtics are battle-tested, terribly versatile and might dial it up on offense and protection to a degree that hardly any group can match.

We have seen Boston repeatedly open large leads over the previous two weeks in opposition to elite groups throughout this seven-game homestand — even whereas lacking at the least one, and sometimes a number of, key gamers.

However the Celtics have repeatedly let these leads slip away — a constant downside. Boston’s 3-point heavy offensive assault, specifically, is prone to variance good and bad. But when the Celtics are wholesome, I will not be choosing in opposition to them in a seven-game sequence.

Windhorst: OKC is a defensive juggernaut with the whole lot you want within the trendy recreation: depth, size, peak, wing stoppers, a switchable massive, on-ball menaces and rim protectors. Offensively, it’s not as full. Gilgeous-Alexander carries a heavy load — he has greater than 100 extra isolation baskets than any participant within the league. That highlights the Thunder’s paradox: They’ve a top-five offense, however a bottom-five help fee. OKC additionally does not have a rotation participant who shoots over 40% on 3s. Its offensive resilience is its weak point, and if a group sells out on slowing SGA, there is perhaps some strain on the remainder of that offense. How the Thunder deal with that’s the place the rubber meets the highway.

Kram: As a result of the Japanese Convention is so top-heavy, the Celtics ought to coast to the convention finals. They’re assured to face an overmatched opponent within the first spherical, as each East squad in a play-in spot has a dropping report, and Boston has crushed the third-seeded New York Knicks in each assembly this season. However the Cleveland Cavaliers are one of many three finest groups within the league, together with the Celtics and Thunder, which implies Boston must overcome a excessive hurdle to succeed in the Finals.

Conversely, in a deeper Western Convention discipline, the Thunder may face three difficult opponents on their potential Finals path — although not any particular person group is as harmful as Cleveland. In accordance with ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI), after the highest trio of the Thunder, Cavaliers and Celtics, seven of the subsequent eight finest groups are within the West. And a few of them have performed Oklahoma Metropolis nicely this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets each cut up 4 conferences with the Thunder, and the Warriors beat them in two out of three even earlier than they added Jimmy Butler III. A Los Angeles Lakers group with LeBron James and Luka Doncic would not be a simple out, both.

Which group has the higher five-year outlook?

Bontemps: There isn’t any group with a greater five-year outlook than Oklahoma Metropolis, between its assortment of younger gamers and draft picks. The far more fascinating query is which group has the higher two- or three-year outlook?

A very powerful factor for Boston is that Tatum is underneath contract all through his prime, giving the Celtics the most effective gamers within the league at its most desired positional archetype — an elite two-way wing — to construct round. However with a $500 million payroll and luxurious tax invoice looming subsequent season, plus the group at the moment being up on the market, there are lots of questions on the place this franchise is headed.

What degree of successful will it take for the Celtics to run it again? The expectation has been that changing into the primary group to defend a title because the 2018 Golden State Warriors — and having an opportunity to turn into the primary to go for 3 in a row since Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant’s Lakers of the early 2000s — can be an excessive amount of of a chance to cross. However all of that can be decided by the group’s new house owners, who could possibly be in place as quickly as this spring. For the Thunder, no such questions can be stopping them anytime quickly.

Windhorst: This week, Sportico revealed the Celtics financials as a spherical of bids came in for the sale of the franchise. Final season, together with the large inflow their run to the title meant for his or her backside line, the Celtics income was projected at lower than $500 million. They’re a really wholesome and worthwhile group, however they can not survive spending more cash on payroll than they soak up. This can be a main cause why the group is on the market, no matter what is perhaps offered publicly. Is there a solution to minimize payroll and hold the group as a championship contender? Completely, and the Celtics are in all probability engaged on a plan. However to say Boston has a greater five-year outlook at this level can be disingenuous.

Kram: Over the subsequent 5 years, I’d take Oklahoma Metropolis forward of each group within the NBA. The Thunder have already got the league’s finest younger core, they usually can hold replenishing with gifted kids because of their hoard of draft picks — or commerce these picks for win-now upgrades. Barring harm, the one impediment that may get in Oklahoma Metropolis’s manner of repeated 60-win campaigns is that if the group’s possession group does not need to pay to maintain Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren collectively on massive extensions.

However that monetary complication is already affecting the Celtics, who’re above the second apron this season and set to be nicely above that threshold subsequent 12 months. As soon as the Celtics’ sale is resolved, will the franchise’s new house owners be comfy paying tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} in luxurious tax funds?

A Celtics-Thunder Finals matchup would be____?

Bontemps: A dream matchup for any basketball fan and one we may doubtlessly see over and over within the years to come back. We defined above how Oklahoma Metropolis is poised to be within the combine transferring ahead. And even with the monetary unknowns hanging over the Celtics, they nonetheless have a lot firepower for at the least the subsequent couple of seasons. Barring harm and so long as the core group stays intact, Boston goes to be preventing for Japanese Convention supremacy.

However each groups are deep and have coaches in Mazzulla and Daigneault who’re keen to experiment in several methods. All of that portends what can be a captivating matchup that any fan ought to get pleasure from watching.

Windhorst: Large brother-little brother. The Celtics have been a group of promise for years, their younger core constructed by means of the draft and savvy trades opening a window they struggled to lastly break by means of. It would not be correct to say the Thunder have been inbuilt Boston’s picture, however their processes are associated. The Celtics are a group of the second, the Thunder are a group of the longer term. Boston needs that to stay the truth; OKC needs to progress. It is a pure matchup.

Kram: A conflict of unstoppable forces and immovable objects. On one finish of the ground, the Celtics lead the league in made 3s, whereas the Thunder permit the bottom opponent 3-point share. On the opposite finish, the Thunder are led by the NBA’s finest scoring guard in Gilgeous-Alexander, whereas the Celtics have maybe the most effective defensive guard tandem. Each groups rank within the high 5 in offensive and defensive scores.

Trendy playoff basketball is all about matchup looking, however neither the Celtics or Thunder have any weak hyperlinks or matchups to hunt. The gamers of their rotations can all shoot, create and maintain their very own on protection.

We have not had an NBA Finals attain a Sport 7 since 2016, when the Cavaliers accomplished their 3-1 comeback in opposition to the Warriors. However Celtics-Thunder can be so completely matched that it is perhaps destined to go the space.