Was Thunder-Celtics an NBA Finals preview?

The Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Boston Celtics 118-112 in a blockbuster matchup between two NBA Finals favorites Wednesday.

Behind Chet Holmgren‘s double-double (23 factors, 15 rebounds) and MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s 34 factors, the Western Convention-leading Thunder have defeated Boston twice this season and improved their report towards Japanese Convention groups to 22-1.

Boston’s Jayson Tatum had 33 factors, however finally the Celtics faltered late regardless of the crew tying the NBA report for 3-point makes an attempt (63) in a non-overtime sport. The Thunder used a 20-14 run to complete the sport because the Celtics cooled from past the arc, capturing 1-9 on 3-pointers within the last eight minutes.

Wednesday’s sport at TD Backyard showcased what makes each these groups elite: powerful protection by the Thunder, a barrage of 3-point capturing by the Celtics and each groups’ stars making large performs. NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Zach Kram and Brian Windhorst break down OKC’s win, what it means for either side and what to anticipate from these two juggernauts throughout the playoffs and past.

Greatest takeaway from tonight’s sport?

Tim Bontemps: That Oklahoma Metropolis needs to be considered as the most important risk to take down Boston and turn into NBA champions.

There’s been loads of makes an attempt from all corners of the league to attempt to pour chilly water on the Thunder’s possibilities. However OKC has now swept the season sequence with the Celtics, pulling away within the second half of each video games, regardless of Holmgren lacking the primary assembly in Oklahoma Metropolis in January and Jalen Williams sitting out Wednesday night time in Boston.

The Thunder are a deep, versatile bunch that may win in quite a lot of methods. Gilgeous-Alexander confirmed why he’s an MVP candidate along with his efficiency. Holmgren had 23 factors and 15 rebounds, and his play with Isaiah Hartenstein paid dividends all through the competition, particularly within the minutes when Gilgeous-Alexander sat out in the beginning of the second and fourth quarters — minutes the Thunder received on this sport.

These are the 2 most versatile groups within the league. Each of the video games have been fabulously entertaining. However there is no one else who has confronted the Celtics this season and made them look extra weak than this Thunder crew has.

Sure, this OKC squad below coach Mark Daigneault is the youngest crew within the league. Sure, questions stay about how Williams, particularly, will deal with a secondary creation function within the postseason, after struggling in that place final season.

However the thought anybody else needs to be favored to win the West is silly. The Thunder confirmed that once more Wednesday night time.

Brian Windhorst: OK, so the Thunder can take away so many issues from this sport. Holmgren’s potential to deal with an enormous function below strain. The success of each their small and large lineups. The would possibly of their bench depth. Even racking up a ton of free throws, one thing they hardly ever do as they’re twenty seventh within the league in makes an attempt.

Having stated that, the Celtics have been 5-of-27 on 3-pointers within the second half. This isn’t to say all of it comes all the way down to 3-point capturing, however when the Celtics do not make their 3s they turn into weak. This Celtics crew is unbelievable and weak. This season has taught us this and this sport bolstered it.

Zach Kram: The Thunder aren’t afraid of the Celtics’ 3-point assault. Boston tried a record-tying 63 3-pointers, making 20 of them; on the finish of the primary quarter, a whopping 22 of Boston’s 24 shot makes an attempt had come from past the arc.

The Celtics began scorching however cooled with a 5-for-27 mark on 3s within the second half — paying homage to their 9-for-46 displaying of their loss in Oklahoma Metropolis in January. On most nights, the Celtics will make extra of their jumpers. However regardless of Boston’s eagerness to shoot 3s, the Thunder did not compromise their defensive rules. They provided aggressive assistance on Boston’s drives, pressured kickout passes to the perimeter and invited the Celtics to fireplace away from deep. That technique labored in each conferences this season.

The Celtics could be equally joyful to have taken so many 3s, given coach Joe Mazzulla’s offensive imaginative and prescient. However they have been missing a backup plan Wednesday — which could be solved in a future matchup if Kristaps Porzingis is wholesome and capable of weaponize his potent post-up sport.

Boston additionally missed Porzingis’s presence on protection. The Thunder tried 22 pictures on the rim and produced factors on 19 of them (14 made pictures and 5 capturing fouls drawn). Al Horford is an ageless surprise who tallied 18 factors, 10 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal in Wednesday’s bout, however he is not an elite rim protector. Opponents have transformed 65% of their makes an attempt on the rim towards Horford this season, versus simply 52% towards Porzingis.

What is going to decide the size of every crew’s playoff run?

Bontemps: For Boston, largely well being — and to a lesser extent focus. When Boston is totally wholesome, it is onerous to see a crew beating it 4 instances out of seven. The Celtics are battle-tested, terribly versatile and may dial it up on offense and protection to a stage that hardly any crew can match.

We have seen Boston repeatedly open huge leads over the previous two weeks towards elite groups throughout this seven-game homestand — even whereas lacking no less than one, and sometimes a number of, key gamers.

However the Celtics have repeatedly let these leads slip away — a constant downside. Boston’s 3-point heavy offensive assault, particularly, is prone to variance good and bad. But when the Celtics are wholesome, I will not be choosing towards them in a seven-game sequence.

Windhorst: OKC is a defensive juggernaut with every part you want within the trendy sport: depth, size, top, wing stoppers, a switchable large, on-ball menaces and rim protectors. Offensively, it isn’t as full. Gilgeous-Alexander carries a heavy load — he has greater than 100 extra isolation baskets than any participant within the league. That highlights the Thunder’s paradox: They’ve a top-five offense, however a bottom-five help price. OKC additionally does not have a rotation participant who shoots over 40% on 3s. Its offensive resilience is its weak point, and if a crew sells out on slowing SGA, there could be some strain on the remainder of that offense. How the Thunder address that’s the place the rubber meets the highway.

Kram: As a result of the Japanese Convention is so top-heavy, the Celtics ought to coast to the convention finals. They’re assured to face an overmatched opponent within the first spherical, as each East squad in a play-in spot has a dropping report, and Boston has crushed the third-seeded New York Knicks in each assembly this season. However the Cleveland Cavaliers are one of many three finest groups within the league, together with the Celtics and Thunder, which suggests Boston must overcome a excessive hurdle to succeed in the Finals.

Conversely, in a deeper Western Convention subject, the Thunder would possibly face three difficult opponents on their potential Finals path — although not any particular person crew is as harmful as Cleveland. In line with ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI), after the highest trio of the Thunder, Cavaliers and Celtics, seven of the following eight finest groups are within the West. And a few of them have performed Oklahoma Metropolis properly this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets each cut up 4 conferences with the Thunder, and the Warriors beat them in two out of three even earlier than they added Jimmy Butler III. A Los Angeles Lakers crew with LeBron James and Luka Doncic would not be a straightforward out, both.

Which crew has the higher five-year outlook?

Bontemps: There is no such thing as a crew with a greater five-year outlook than Oklahoma Metropolis, between its assortment of younger gamers and draft picks. The rather more attention-grabbing query is which crew has the higher two- or three-year outlook?

A very powerful factor for Boston is that Tatum is below contract all through his prime, giving the Celtics among the best gamers within the league at its most desired positional archetype — an elite two-way wing — to construct round. However with a $500 million payroll and luxurious tax invoice looming subsequent season, plus the crew at the moment being up on the market, there are loads of questions on the place this franchise is headed.

What stage of profitable will it take for the Celtics to run it again? The expectation has been that turning into the primary crew to defend a title for the reason that 2018 Golden State Warriors — and having an opportunity to turn into the primary to go for 3 in a row since Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant’s Lakers of the early 2000s — shall be an excessive amount of of a possibility to go. However all of that shall be decided by the crew’s new homeowners, who may very well be in place as quickly as this spring. For the Thunder, no such questions shall be stopping them anytime quickly.

Windhorst: This week, Sportico printed the Celtics financials as a spherical of bids came in for the sale of the franchise. Final season, together with the large inflow their run to the title meant for his or her backside line, the Celtics income was projected at lower than $500 million. They’re a really wholesome and worthwhile crew, however they can not survive spending extra money on payroll than they absorb. It is a main cause why the crew is on the market, no matter what could be offered publicly. Is there a technique to lower payroll and preserve the crew as a championship contender? Completely, and the Celtics are in all probability engaged on a plan. However to say Boston has a greater five-year outlook at this level can be disingenuous.

Kram: Over the following 5 years, I might take Oklahoma Metropolis forward of each crew within the NBA. The Thunder have already got the league’s finest younger core, and so they can preserve replenishing with proficient children resulting from their hoard of draft picks — or commerce these picks for win-now upgrades. Barring damage, the one impediment which may get in Oklahoma Metropolis’s means of repeated 60-win campaigns is that if the crew’s possession group does not need to pay to maintain Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren collectively on massive extensions.

However that monetary complication is already affecting the Celtics, who’re above the second apron this season and set to be properly above that threshold subsequent yr. As soon as the Celtics’ sale is resolved, will the franchise’s new homeowners be comfy paying a whole bunch of tens of millions of {dollars} in luxurious tax funds?

A Celtics-Thunder Finals matchup would be____?

Bontemps: A dream matchup for any basketball fan and one we might doubtlessly see time and again within the years to return. We defined above how Oklahoma Metropolis is poised to be within the combine transferring ahead. And even with the monetary unknowns hanging over the Celtics, they nonetheless have a lot firepower for no less than the following couple of seasons. Barring damage and so long as the core crew stays intact, Boston goes to be preventing for Japanese Convention supremacy.

However each groups are deep and have coaches in Mazzulla and Daigneault who’re prepared to experiment in numerous methods. All of that portends what can be a captivating matchup that any fan ought to get pleasure from watching.

Windhorst: Large brother-little brother. The Celtics have been a crew of promise for years, their younger core constructed by the draft and savvy trades opening a window they struggled to lastly break by. It would not be correct to say the Thunder have been in-built Boston’s picture, however their processes are associated. The Celtics are a crew of the second, the Thunder are a crew of the longer term. Boston needs that to stay the truth; OKC needs to progress. It is a pure matchup.

Kram: A conflict of unstoppable forces and immovable objects. On one finish of the ground, the Celtics lead the league in made 3s, whereas the Thunder enable the bottom opponent 3-point proportion. On the opposite finish, the Thunder are led by the NBA’s finest scoring guard in Gilgeous-Alexander, whereas the Celtics have maybe the perfect defensive guard tandem. Each groups rank within the high 5 in offensive and defensive scores.

Fashionable playoff basketball is all about matchup searching, however neither the Celtics or Thunder have any weak hyperlinks or matchups to hunt. The gamers of their rotations can all shoot, create and maintain their very own on protection.

We’ve not had an NBA Finals attain a Sport 7 since 2016, when the Cavaliers accomplished their 3-1 comeback towards the Warriors. However Celtics-Thunder can be so completely matched that it could be destined to go the space.