This page may contain affiliate links. If you click and sign up, make a deposit, or place a wager, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you.
The Padres and Diamondbacks open an important series in the desert Monday
•
4 min read
The MLB trade deadline was on July 31 for a long time, but Commissioner Rob Manfred has the authority to pick any date between July 28 and Aug. 3, and the idea is to affect as few games as possible on deadline day. The trading period closes at 6 p.m. ET on Monday, and there are only eight games scheduled, with all of them starting after the deadline passes.
You should always wait for lineups when you can if you plan on betting, but that is especially true Monday – at least on clubs that are selling. For example, when the Giants visit the Rangers at 8 p.m. ET, San Francisco could be without a couple of lineup regulars who are traded, led by Luiz Arraez, who was dealt to the Phillies earlier in the day. But I’m still not keen on fading the Giants there because ace Logan Webb is starting, and by all accounts he is going nowhere. If Webb is scratched, I’ll hammer Texas.
If you’re interested in MLB betting at the best sports betting apps, you can check out the SportsLine Projection Model and picks from the simulations and our experts.
Padres-Diamondbacks MLB same-game parlay
- Arizona +1.5
- First-inning alt Under 1.5
- Alt Under 10.5
FanDuel SGP price: +151
But let’s take a look at the late game on the slate, featuring Padres at Diamondbacks. These NL West clubs and wild card hopefuls should be adding today if they do anything, although really what’s the point of bothering in the National League now that the Dodgers got Tarik Skubal? It’s a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch from Chase Field.
I touched on the Padres early last week when they were at a fork in the road in terms of buying or selling. They had to have a good week to convince ownership and the aggressive front office not to sell, and that appears to have happened after they went 5-1 for the week. Could the Friars trade someone like setup man Adrian Morejon, simply as he’s set for free agency and would bring a nice haul of prospects back to a weak farm system?
Sure, and Morejon closed out Sunday’s win. But superstar closer Mason Miller, who is under team control until 2029 (and wasn’t available Sunday after throwing 30 pitches Saturday), isn’t going anywhere. Neither apparently is ace Michael King.
Bet on MLB and more at FanDuel, where bettors can get up to $1,000 in Bet Reset Tokens:
The problem is that the Padres don’t have the starting pitching to make any noise even if they sneak into the playoffs. Sitting 58-54 and one game out of the NL’s final wild card spot, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts them with a 38.5% chance to make the postseason, while DraftKings prices them +135 (42.5%).
King (6-7, 3.38 ERA but worth minus-$554) is a solid pitcher but not really a No. 1 on a World Series contender, and it’s largely a black hole behind him. The San Diego rotation has a 4.66 ERA that is 27th in baseball, and two of the three teams below the Padres – the Athletics and Rockies – are selling.
Originally, King was to start Sunday’s series finale at home vs. the awful Giants, but he has been pushed to tonight. Yes, some speculated that meant a trade might be pending, but the Padres also didn’t start superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. in a rarity, and he’s not being dealt. I think this was just a move to get both a breather ahead of a much bigger series here. And it ended up working out great, with the Padres beating the Giants.
King has made two starts this year against Arizona and is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 12.0 innings, and the Snakes are hitting a collective .167 off him. The model has King at 6.0 innings tonight, 5.4 strikeouts, 4.2 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs.
Bet on MLB at DraftKings, where new users get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5+ first wager:
Arizona (59-53) has surged into a tie for the NL’s second wild card spot and are given a 49.4% shot of the postseason via the model and priced -110 at DK (52.4%). I definitely like the Diamondbacks better than the Padres in that regard, even if they could use starting pitching help too with a rotation ERA of 4.25, thanks to Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly having down years.
The new ace, in fact, might be tonight’s starter, Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 4.00 ERA). He was not great early in the year and moved to the bullpen for a while but has not allowed more than one earned in six straight outings with a 1.85 ERA over 34.0 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned in 14 straight, but some of those were in relief.
The 27-year-old had his best outing of 2026 last time out with seven shutout innings in Pittsburgh. The Snakes have won his past six as well, and now Pfaadt is one of MLB’s most profitable starters at plus-$794. Pfaadt is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two appearances (one start) spanning eight innings this season against San Diego. The model has him at 5.4 innings, 4.2 strikeouts, 5.5 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. Tatis hasn’t had much success against Pfaadt at 6-for-29 with a homer and eight Ks.
Make your MLB picks at BetMGM Sportsbook and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
While Miller should be available if needed tonight for the Padres, Morejon and a few others won’t be due to workload. And we can’t go against Pfaadt right now – and don’t need an outright win. I don’t believe Arizona should be a dog. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
