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Odds of UK rate of interest minimize this week fall after inflation sticks at 2.2%; rents hold hovering – enterprise reside

Odds of an interest rate cut tomorrow fall The Bank of England is less likely to cut interest rates tomorrow, the City believes, after this morning’s inflation report showed a rise in core inflation in August. The money markets show that the odds of the BoE making no change to borrowing costs at noon on

Odds of UK rate of interest minimize this week fall after inflation sticks at 2.2%; rents hold hovering – enterprise reside

Odds of an rate of interest minimize tomorrow fall

The Financial institution of England is much less more likely to minimize rates of interest tomorrow, the Metropolis believes, after this morning’s inflation report confirmed a rise in core inflation in August.

The cash markets present that the percentages of the BoE making no change to borrowing prices at midday on Thursday have risen to 73% this morning.

That’s up from 65% earlier than we discovered that headline inflation caught above the Financial institution’s goal in August, at 2.2%.

Monica George Michail, affiliate economist at analysis institute NIESR, says the Financial institution can have famous that underlyinng inflation “stays elevated”, regardless that headline CPI inflation was unchanged:

“Annual CPI inflation in August stays unchanged from July at 2.2%. Core and Providers inflation charges have barely gone up, after an encouraging fall in July, recording 3.6% and 5.6%.

On condition that inflation is ready to softly rise in direction of the top of the yr, and that underlying inflation stays elevated, this reduces probabilities of a fee minimize tomorrow, and new developments will probably be carefully monitored by the MPC”

⚡️Our response to at the moment’s #inflation figures is out now ⚡️@MichailMonica @_maxmosley @RoyalEconSoc pic.twitter.com/VXFHFsYoJp

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— Nationwide Institute of Financial and Social Analysis (@NIESRorg) September 18, 2024“}}”>

The Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) has postponed plans to go to Moscow to assessment the Russian financial system, following a backlash from European capitals.

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The Tass information service has reported that the IMF has “indefinitely postponed” its first deliberate consultations with Russia.

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In response to Tass, Alexei Mozhin, Russia’s director on the IMF, blamed “technical unpreparedness”, saying:

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“The Fund’s administration notified the Russian facet and the board of administrators that the mission’s work could be postponed indefinitely.

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“Technical unpreparedness of the mission to conduct consultations was talked about as the explanation for suspending the mission.”

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Final week, the finance ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Poland expressed their “robust dissatisfaction” with the IMF’s plans to go to Russia.

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Post Office boss Nick Read is set to step down from the role next year, the company has said.

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Read says it has been a “great privilege” to have worked as Post Office chief executive in an “extraordinarily challenging time for the business and for postmasters”, adding:

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“It has been a great privilege to work with colleagues and postmasters during the past five years in what has been an extraordinarily challenging time for the business and for postmasters.

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“There remains much to be done for this great UK institution but the journey to reset the relationship with postmasters is well under way and our work to support justice and redress for postmasters will continue.”

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Today’s announcement comes after more than a year dominated by the fallout from the Horizon IT scandal, in which hundreds of post office operators were wrongfully inprisoned.

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In July, Read said he was temporarily stepping back from the CEO role so he could give his “entire attention” to the next stage of the inquiry into Horizon.

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Read became CEO of the Post Office in September 2019, succeeding Paula Vennells, who forfeited her CBE for “bringing the honours system into disrepute” over her handling of the Horizon IT crisis.

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In February, the business and trade committee of MPs expressed a lack of confidence in Read’s leadership, accusing him of giving misleading evidence.

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Read also denied a claim made by the former chair of the Post Office Henry Staunton that he had threatened to resign unless he was paid more. He was “exonerated of all misconduct allegations” following a report into his behaviour earlier this year.

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Google has won a legal challenge against a €1.49bn antitrust fine for hampering competition in the online search advertising business.

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The Luxembourg-based General Court has annulled the fine, despite also mostly agreed with the European Union competition enforcer’s assessments of the case five year ago.

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The judges said:

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“The court (…) upheld most of the commission’s assessments, but annulled the decision imposing a fine of almost 1.5 billion euros on Google, on the grounds in particular that it had failed to take into account all the relevant circumstances in its assessment of the duration of the contractual clauses that it had found to be unfair.”

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Back in 2019, the EC ruled that Google had abused its market dominance in online advertising, by forcing web publishers not to accept adverts from its rivals or making them reserve the most profitable space on their search results pages for Google’s adverts.

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UK tenants continue to be hit by inflation-busting rental increases.

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Average UK private rents increased by 8.4% in the 12 months to August, the ONS reports.

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That’s down from 8.6% in the 12 months to July, but still almost four times faster than the headline rate of inflation.

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The ONS adds:

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    Average rents increased to £1,327 (8.5%) in England, £752 (8.5%) in Wales, and £969 (7.6%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to August 2024.

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    In Northern Ireland, average rents increased by 9.9% in the 12 months to June 2024.

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    In England, rents inflation was highest in London (9.6%) and lowest in the South West (6.4%), in the 12 months to August 2024.

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chart displaying the newest common rents”,”credit score”:”{Photograph}: ONS”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1726648413000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.33 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1726648642000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.37 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1726648633000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.37 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.37″,”title”:”UK rents soar by 8.4%”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 18 Sep 2024 05.54 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Wed 18 Sep 2024 01.28 EDT”},{“id”:”66ea8fd48f086ad2b492a2ca”,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Advertisement. Scroll to continue reading.

Just in: UK house price inflation has slowed.

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The average UK house prices increased by 2.2% to £290,000 in the 12 months to July, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows.

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That’s down from 2.7% in the 12 months to June 2024, and is the fifth monthly rise in annual house price infation in a row.

“,”elementId”:”b1f50687-1ae5-47ab-afb5-f3d7a43d3cb0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The ONS reports that average house prices increased in England to £306,000 (a rise of 1.6%), in Wales to £218,000 (2.0%), and in Scotland to £199,000 (6.0%) in the last year.

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Average UK house prices increased by 2.2%, to £290,000 in the year to July 2024, up from £288,000 in June 2024.

Read the release ➡️ https://t.co/21oFb1o4O5 pic.twitter.com/ao26eVMHi1

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— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 18, 2024

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Newsflash: There’s a leadership shake-up at struggling retailer Asda.

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Asda has announced that veteran retailer Sir Stuart Rose, currently its chairman, is to lead the business, taking over from co-owner Mohsin Issa, as it tries to reverse a sales decline.

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Issa will now focus on running EG Group, the petrol station and convenience store chain which he and his brother Zuber built their fortunes.

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Lord Rose, the former CEO and chairman of Marks & Spencer, says:

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“,”elementId”:”45b98aa9-5940-4538-b290-8db652e57880″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

We respect Mohsin’s decision to move on from his role at Asda where his work is complete to be the sole CEO of EG Group.

n

We are very grateful to Mohsin for the role he has played in overseeing Asda, including launching into the growth market of convenience stores and introducing a loyalty app now used by more than six million customers. He has laid the foundations to deliver a world-class IT infrastructure, strengthening Asda for the long term. I look forward to continuing to benefit from his insight as a non-executive director on our Board.”

n

“,”elementId”:”ec78192e-06f6-462b-908e-f28f79d93b22″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The move comes after Asda lost market against rivals, with sales falling by over 6% in the three months to mid-August.

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Rose told the Telegraph last month that he was “embarrassed” by Asda’s performance, and that he would urge Mohsin Issa to permanently step back from the day-to-day running of the business. That urging seems to have come to fruition today.

Advertisement. Scroll to continue reading.

“,”elementId”:”fb278ff7-cfb6-483f-b00e-f237c884fe5c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Asda says Rose will assume Mohsin Issa’s executive responsibilities alongside Rob Hattrell, a partner at TDR Capital, the private equity firm who bought Asda alongside the Issa brothers in 2020.

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Following reports, which have been denied, of a rift between the brothers, Zuber sold his Asda stake to TDR this summer.

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Asda adds that it is still looking for a CEO to lead the business “in the next phase of its strategy”.

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chart displaying the newest UK inflation charges”,”caption”:”A chart displaying the newest UK inflation charges”,”credit score”:”{Photograph}: ONS”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1726643955000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.19 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1726643977000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.19 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1726643977000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.19 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.19″,”title”:”Chart: UK inflation”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 18 Sep 2024 05.54 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Wed 18 Sep 2024 01.28 EDT”},{“id”:”66ea7b118f086ad2b492a23f”,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It’s important to remember that although the rate of price rises has slowed this summer, the level of prices is sharply higher than before the cost of iving crisis began.

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Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, makes this point:

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n

“Years of sky-high inflation have taken their toll; and prices are still much higher than four years ago.

n

“So, while more manageable inflation is welcome, we know that millions of families across Britain are struggling, which is why we are determined to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better-off.”

n

“,”elementId”:”f6fdae94-b568-45f0-bc6f-a3d6975b0235″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1726642961000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.02 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1726643201000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.06 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1726643202000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.06 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.06″,”title”:”Darren Jones: hundreds of thousands of households are struggling”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 18 Sep 2024 05.54 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Wed 18 Sep 2024 01.28 EDT”},{“id”:”66ea75938f08e43e1272b845″,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Bank of England is less likely to cut interest rates tomorrow, the City believes, after this morning’s inflation report showed a rise in core inflation in August.

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The money markets show that the odds of the BoE making no change to borrowing costs at noon on Thursday have risen to 73% this morning.

“,”elementId”:”493ff253-7700-4ac6-a92a-bccb59bf7c61″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

That’s up from 65% before we learned that headline inflation stuck above the Bank’s target in August, at 2.2%.

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Monica George Michail, associate economist at research institute NIESR, says the Bank will have noted that underlyinng inflation “remains elevated”, even though headline CPI inflation was unchanged:

“,”elementId”:”1ecba001-ffc0-4574-9978-4f9a351fa977″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“Annual CPI inflation in August remains unchanged from July at 2.2%. Core and Services inflation rates have slightly gone up, after an encouraging fall in July, recording 3.6% and 5.6%.

n

Given that inflation is set to gently rise towards the end of the year, and that underlying inflation remains elevated, this reduces chances of a rate cut tomorrow, and new developments will be closely monitored by the MPC”

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n

“,”elementId”:”e30eafa1-eb68-448a-8f8b-ac815c4108b1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1836292656239968405″,”elementId”:”00ab41a5-d1ec-4c49-bd13-9eea4c8bd415″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://x.com/NIESRorg/status/1836292656239968405″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

⚡️Our reaction to today’s #inflation figures is out now ⚡️@MichailMonica @_maxmosley @RoyalEconSoc pic.twitter.com/VXFHFsYoJp

— National Institute of Economic and Social Research (@NIESRorg) September 18, 2024

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Inflation at the UK factory gate slowed last month, which may feed through to consumers in coming months.

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The output prices charged by UK producers rose by 0.2% in the year to August, the Office for National Statistics reports, down from 0.8% in July.

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Producers saw their own input prices fall, by 1.1% year-on-year, thanks to a drop in the oil price.

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Factory gate prices rose by 0.2% in the year to August, down from an increase of 0.8% in the year to July.

Meanwhile, the cost of raw materials fell 1.2% in the year to August, down from a revised increase of 0.2% in the year to July.

Read the release ➡️ https://t.co/RVyWiQG2T9 pic.twitter.com/wjC7d5c8PL

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 18, 2024

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Services inflation accelerated to 5.6% in August, from 5.2% in July, the inflation report shows.

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Conversely, goods prices continued to fall, and at a faster rate. The CPI goods annual rate fell from -0.6% to -0.9%.

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Worryingly, underlying inflation across the UK has risen.

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The Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2024, up from 3.3% in July.

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Economists had expected a smaller rise in core inflation, to 3.5%.

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Despite fears of a Taylor Swift effect, hotel and restaurant prices actually fell last month.

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Today’s inflation report shows that prices at restaurants and hotels fell by 0.7% in August, compared with July.

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This pulled the annual inflation rate for restaurants and hotels down to 4.4% in August 2024, down from 4.9% in the year to July, and the lowest rate since July 2021.

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The ONS reports that the prices of various alcohol products at pub and restaurants rose by less than a year ago.

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annual inflation fee for eating places and resorts in August was the bottom since July 2021″,”credit score”:”{Photograph}: ONS”}},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Some economists have urged that robust demand from Swifties attending concert events this summer season may have had an upward have an effect on on inflation, as resort house owners reacted to larger demand by whacking up costs.

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In August, Taylor Swift performed 5 dates at Wembley Stadium.

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The cost of petrol and diesel fell last month, countering the impact of higher air fares and keeping inflation at 2.2%.

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Today’s UK inflation report shows that motor fuel prices fell by 3.4% in the year to August, compared with a rise of 1.8% in the year to July.

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According to the ONS, the average price of petrol fell by 2.1p per litre between July and August to 142.3p per litre. That’s down from 148.5p per litre in August 2023.

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Diesel prices fell by 2.6p per litre in August to 147.8p per litre, down from 151.1p per litre in August 2023.

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ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner says:

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n

“Inflation held steady in August as various price fluctuations offset each other.

n

“The main movements came from air fares, in particular to European destinations, which showed a large monthly rise, following a fall this time last year.

n

“This was offset by lower prices at the pump as well as falling costs at restaurants and hotels. Also, the prices of shop bought alcohol fell slightly this month, but rose at the same time last year.

n

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Newsflash: UK inflation remained unchanged last month, above the UK’s official target.

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The Consumer Prices Index, which tracks cost changes across the economy, rose by 2.2% in the year to August, data just released by the Office for National Statistics shows.

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That means prices are rising a little faster than the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

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CPI rose by 2.2% in the 12 months to August 2024, unchanged from July 2024.

Read the release ➡️ https://t.co/3rW4NgMQNJ pic.twitter.com/AvTfVmsj53

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 18, 2024

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Shoppers may face a choccy horror show this Halloween after the price of chocolate shot up 11% in the past year – far outstripping increases for other foods across UK supermarkets.

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Britons opening their doors to trick-or-treaters could decide to cut back on spending for 31 October, as the cost of chocolate rose sharply in the year to the end of August, way above wider grocery inflation of 2.7% over the same period, according to research by the consumer group Which?

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The price has risen after cocoa prices more than doubled on world markets in the face of tree disease and adverse weather in growing countries aggravated by the climate crisis.

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stack of Tupperware containers.”,”credit score”:”{Photograph}: Anton Starikov/Alamy”}},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Whereas we look ahead to the UK inflation report… Tupperware, the producer of meals storage containers, has filed for chapter safety.

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Tupperware introduced this morning it has voluntarily begun Chapter 11 proceedings in the US Chapter Courtroom for the District of Delaware.

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Laurie Ann Goldman, president and chief government officer of Tupperware, blamed a “difficult macroeconomic surroundings” (prices of uncooked supplies have jumped, and the pandemic growth in residence cooking has pale, hurting gross sales).

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Goldman added:

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“Whether or not you’re a devoted member of our Tupperware staff, promote, cook dinner with, or just love our Tupperware merchandise, you’re part of our Tupperware household. We plan to proceed serving our valued prospects with the high-quality merchandise they love and belief all through this course of.”

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“,”elementId”:”c0d16b8c-1c43-49a0-a9a0-0ad383a91122″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1726638554000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”01.49 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1726640990000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.29 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1726638793000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”01.53 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”01.53″,”title”:”Tupperware Manufacturers information for chapter safety”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 18 Sep 2024 05.54 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Wed 18 Sep 2024 01.28 EDT”},{“id”:”66e9948b8f086ad2b4929a2d”,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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Inflation and interest rates are top of the agenda today.

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Firstly, we’re about to learn how fast prices rose across the UK last month, when the latest official inflation report is released at 7am.

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Economists predict the consumer prices index rose by 2.2% in the year to August, matching July’s figure.

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That would mean prices were rising slightly faster than the Bank of England’s 2% target, but at a much slower pace than during the height of the cost of living crisis in autumn 2022, when inflation hit 11.1%.

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A weak inflation reading might give the Bank of England confidence to cut interest rates on Thursday, while a higher rate would make policymakers lean towards maintaining borrowing costs.

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As things stand, the money markets indicate there’s a 65% chance that the BoE leaves rates on hold tomorrow, and just a 35% chance of a cut.

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Interest rates across the Atlantic will probably be cut later today – the question is by how much. Investors are split over whether the US Federal Reserve will start its easing programme modestly, with a cut of a quarter of one percent (25 basis points), or go big with a half-point reduction.

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Currently, the markets think a bumper 50 basis-point cut is more likely. But we’ll see at at 7pm.

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Kit Juckes, currency expert at French bank Société Générale, says:

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Is the Fed a hare or a tortoise? Whether we get a 25bp or a 50bp cut from the Fed tomorrow matters less than the destination of rates. Reaching the right destination is more important than how fast you start. Just ask the hare!

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The agenda

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    7am BST: UK inflation report for August

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    9.30am BST: UK house prices and rental costs data

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    10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for August (final reading)

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    7pm BST: Federal Reserve sets US interest rates

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    7.30pm BST: Federal Reserve press conference

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Key occasions

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IMF postpones Russia mission after EU backlash

The Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) has postponed plans to go to Moscow to assessment the Russian financial system, following a backlash from European capitals.

The Tass information service has reported that the IMF has “indefinitely postponed” its first deliberate consultations with Russia.

In response to Tass, Alexei Mozhin, Russia’s director on the IMF, blamed “technical unpreparedness”, saying:

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“The Fund’s administration notified the Russian facet and the board of administrators that the mission’s work could be postponed indefinitely.

“Technical unpreparedness of the mission to conduct consultations was talked about as the explanation for suspending the mission.”

Final week, the finance ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Poland expressed their “robust dissatisfaction” with the IMF’s plans to go to Russia.

On the 8.4% jump in UK rents within the yr to August, ONS head of housing market indices Aimee North says:

Rental costs proceed to climb at a near-record fee, though the tempo of the rise has slowed barely.

London once more noticed the quickest development in rents, with the slowest rise within the South West of England.

A chart showing average rents across England
{Photograph}: ONS

Submit Workplace chief government Nick Learn to step down

Submit Workplace boss Nick Learn is ready to step down from the position subsequent yr, the corporate has stated.

Learn says it has been a “nice privilege” to have labored as Submit Workplace chief government in an “terribly difficult time for the enterprise and for postmasters”, including:

“It has been a terrific privilege to work with colleagues and postmasters in the course of the previous 5 years in what has been an awfully difficult time for the enterprise and for postmasters.

“There stays a lot to be carried out for this nice UK establishment however the journey to reset the connection with postmasters is properly beneath manner and our work to help justice and redress for postmasters will proceed.”

As we speak’s announcement comes after greater than a yr dominated by the fallout from the Horizon IT scandal, by which a whole bunch of publish workplace operators had been wrongfully inprisoned.

In July, Learn stated he was briefly stepping again from the CEO position so he may give his “total consideration” to the subsequent stage of the inquiry into Horizon.

Learn grew to become CEO of the Submit Workplace in September 2019, succeeding Paula Vennells, who forfeited her CBE for “bringing the honours system into disrepute” over her dealing with of the Horizon IT disaster.

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In February, the enterprise and commerce committee of MPs expressed a insecurity in Learn’s management, accusing him of giving deceptive proof.

Learn additionally denied a claim made by the previous chair of the Submit Workplace Henry Staunton that he had threatened to resign except he was paid extra. He was “exonerated of all misconduct allegations” following a report into his behaviour earlier this yr.

Snap! Inflation throughout the euro space was 2.2% in August, matching the UK’s inflation fee.

Knowledge supplier Eurostat reviews that inflation throughout the euro space fell final month, from 2.6% in July.

Inflation throughout the European Union was larger, at 2.4%.

Eurostat provides:

The bottom annual charges had been registered in Lithuania (0.8%), Latvia (0.9%), Eire, Slovenia and Finland (all 1.1%). The best annual charges had been recorded in Romania (5.3%), Belgium (4.3%) and Poland (4.0%). In contrast with July 2024, annual inflation fell in twenty Member States, remained secure in a single and rose in six.

Euro space annual #inflation at 2.2% in August 2024 https://t.co/pfx1CxDhIt pic.twitter.com/WKyaY9aKbL

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) September 18, 2024nn”}}”>

Google wins problem in opposition to €1.49bn EU antitrust high quality

Google has received a authorized problem in opposition to a €1.49bn antitrust high quality for hampering competitors within the on-line search promoting enterprise.

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The Luxembourg-based Basic Courtroom has annulled the high quality, regardless of additionally principally agreed with the European Union competitors enforcer’s assessments of the case 5 yr in the past.

The judges stated:

“The court docket (…) upheld many of the fee’s assessments, however annulled the choice imposing a high quality of just about 1.5 billion euros on Google, on the grounds particularly that it had did not keep in mind all of the related circumstances in its evaluation of the length of the contractual clauses that it had discovered to be unfair.”

Back in 2019, the EC ruled that Google had abused its market dominance in internet marketing, by forcing net publishers to not settle for adverts from its rivals or making them reserve probably the most worthwhile area on their search outcomes pages for Google’s adverts.

UK rents soar by 8.4%

UK tenants proceed to be hit by inflation-busting rental will increase.

Common UK personal rents elevated by 8.4% within the 12 months to August, the ONS reviews.

That’s down from 8.6% within the 12 months to July, however nonetheless virtually 4 occasions quicker than the headline fee of inflation.

The ONS provides:

  • Common rents elevated to £1,327 (8.5%) in England, £752 (8.5%) in Wales, and £969 (7.6%) in Scotland, within the 12 months to August 2024.

  • In Northern Eire, common rents elevated by 9.9% within the 12 months to June 2024.

  • In England, rents inflation was highest in London (9.6%) and lowest within the South West (6.4%), within the 12 months to August 2024.

A chart showing the latest average rents
{Photograph}: ONS

UK home value inflation slowed in July

Simply in: UK home value inflation has slowed.

The typical UK home costs elevated by 2.2% to £290,000 within the 12 months to July, new knowledge from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics reveals.

That’s down from 2.7% within the 12 months to June 2024, and is the fifth month-to-month rise in annual home value infation in a row.

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The ONS reviews that common home costs elevated in England to £306,000 (an increase of 1.6%), in Wales to £218,000 (2.0%), and in Scotland to £199,000 (6.0%) within the final yr.

Common UK home costs elevated by 2.2%, to £290,000 within the yr to July 2024, up from £288,000 in June 2024.

Learn the discharge ➡️ https://t.co/21oFb1o4O5 pic.twitter.com/ao26eVMHi1

— Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 18, 2024“}}”>

A UK rate of interest minimize tomorrow is “fully off the desk”, reckons Sam North, Market Analyst at buying and selling platform eToro:

North explains:

“UK providers inflation barely exceeded expectations in August at 5.6% year-on-year, prompting a short hawkish elevate in GBP [the pound].

“Nonetheless, the discharge is unlikely to considerably affect the BoE’s upcoming coverage choice, with an unchanged Financial institution Price nonetheless anticipated.

“The consensus for tomorrow is for a 7-2 vote cut up, and whereas I don’t assume this may change that, the BoE will hope this isn’t the beginning of a brand new upwards inflation development.”

Stuart Rose takes management at struggling Asda

Newsflash: There’s a management shake-up at struggling retailer Asda.

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Asda has introduced that veteran retailer Sir Stuart Rose, at present its chairman, is to guide the enterprise, taking on from co-owner Mohsin Issa, because it tries to reverse a gross sales decline.

Issa will now give attention to operating EG Group, the petrol station and comfort retailer chain which he and his brother Zuber constructed their fortunes.

Lord Rose, the previous CEO and chairman of Marks & Spencer, says:

We respect Mohsin’s choice to maneuver on from his position at Asda the place his work is full to be the only CEO of EG Group.

We’re very grateful to Mohsin for the position he has performed in overseeing Asda, together with launching into the expansion market of comfort shops and introducing a loyalty app now utilized by greater than six million prospects. He has laid the foundations to ship a world-class IT infrastructure, strengthening Asda for the long run. I sit up for persevering with to learn from his perception as a non-executive director on our Board.”

The transfer comes after Asda misplaced market in opposition to rivals, with gross sales falling by over 6% within the three months to mid-August.

Rose advised the Telegraph final month that he was “embarrassed” by Asda’s efficiency, and that he would urge Mohsin Issa to completely step again from the day-to-day operating of the enterprise. That urging appears to have come to fruition at the moment.

Asda says Rose will assume Mohsin Issa’s government tasks alongside Rob Hattrell, a associate at TDR Capital, the personal fairness agency who purchased Asda alongside the Issa brothers in 2020.

Following reviews, which have been denied, of a rift between the brothers, Zuber bought his Asda stake to TDR this summer season.

Asda provides that it’s nonetheless on the lookout for a CEO to guide the enterprise “within the subsequent part of its technique”.

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The pound has risen this morning, as the percentages of a shock rate of interest minimize tomorrow fade.

Sterlging has gained virtually a 3rd of a cent in opposition to the US greenback to $1.319, in direction of the one-week excessive it touched yesterday.

As we speak’s UK CPI inflation determine inline with expectations however sticky providers inflation factors to charges on maintain at subsequent assembly slightly than a minimize. US fee cuts more likely to be extra aggressive than U.Ok. which makes for a strengthening GBP v Greenback.

— Jason Hollands (@jasonhollands) September 18, 2024nn”}}”>

As we speak’s UK CPI inflation determine inline with expectations however sticky providers inflation factors to charges on maintain at subsequent assembly slightly than a minimize. US fee cuts more likely to be extra aggressive than U.Ok. which makes for a strengthening GBP v Greenback.

— Jason Hollands (@jasonhollands) September 18, 2024

Daniel Casali, chief funding strategist at wealth supervisor Evelyn Companions, says:

The broader development of decrease UK inflation ought to encourage the BoE to chop rates of interest this yr, however at a comparatively slower tempo in comparison with the US. Probably, this could present upside for the sterling change fee in opposition to the US greenback.

There may be some excellent news for households and the Financial institution of England in at the moment’s inflation report, says Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Financial institution Analysis:

However, at the moment’s knowledge received’t be sufficient to set off a shock UK rate of interest minimize tomorrow, Raja predicts, explaining:

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Headline CPI got here in line at 2.2% y/y. However core CPI edged larger to three.59% y/y, and providers CPI ticked larger to five.56% y/y – each a tenth above our personal projections.

The energy in providers inflation got here all the way down to stronger than anticipated airfares, which shot up 22% m/m, offsetting the larger fall in lodging costs. The excellent news is that regardless of the stronger providers and core items prints, meals and vitality inflation stunned to the draw back.

As we speak’s UK inflation report “cements” the view that the Financial institution of England will pause tomorrow and depart rates of interest unchanged, says Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

She provides:

We proceed to imagine the subsequent 25 foundation level fee rate of interest minimize will happen in November and that charges will probably be minimize at different BoE conferences till June.

Chart: UK inflation

A chart showing the latest UK inflation rates
A chart displaying the newest UK inflation charges {Photograph}: ONS

On the face of it, at the moment’s inflation fee of two.2% provides the BoE confidence in direction of decreasing rates of interest additional this yr.

However, says professor Costas Milas of the College of Liverpool, it’s not that easy. He argues that latest public sector pay offers may push up inflation.

He tells us:

Providers inflation, a very good proxy for home pressures has gone as much as 5.6% in August.

I nonetheless consider that the newest public sector wage will increase of 5.5% (plus ) will push up providers inflation (and due to this fact CPI inflation) additional inside the subsequent 9 months as I pointed out in a recent London School of Economics Business blog. This implies the Financial institution’s MPC ought to, in the meanwhile, hold rates of interest unchanged.

There may be an additional motive for doing so, he provides:

The Fed is basically anticipated to decrease US rates of interest by 25 to 50 foundation factors this week. Academic research points out to significant positive spillover effects to international growth (together with the UK one) from such a minimize since it would look “co-ordinated” with the latest rate of interest minimize by the ECB.

Briefly, the BoE may permit for cuts in worldwide rates of interest to strengthen UK development with out taking motion itself!

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