The Washington Commanders are the most underrated team in football heading into 2026, and the case starts with throwing out almost everything that happened last fall. PFSN’s Jason Katz made that pick on the Football Debate Club, and the math backs him up.
Why the Commanders’ 5-12 Record Is Misleading
“There’s no debating Washington’s 2025 season,” Katz said. “It was a disaster.” The Commanders opened by alternating wins and losses through five games, lost eight straight after that, and saw their playoff hopes end with a Week 14 shutout in Minnesota. They stumbled to 5-12 and third in the NFC East. On the surface, that reads like a team that needs a full teardown.
Look closer, and the record is more injury report than talent evaluation. “But were they as bad as their 5-12 record might suggest?” Katz asked. “I say no.”
Jayden Daniels played only seven games, his season chopped up by a knee sprain, a hamstring strain and a dislocated left elbow. Austin Ekeler tore his Achilles in the Week 2 loss at Green Bay and was gone for the year. Terry McLaurin missed seven games with a quad injury and shared the field with a healthy Daniels for only three of them. One of the league’s worst defenses lost Marshon Lattimore, Dorance Armstrong and others to injured reserve. This was not a bad roster. It was a decimated one.
The flashes that survived are the tell. Katz points to a specific split: “The Commanders actually averaged 22.5 points per game in the four games in which Jayden Daniels played in their entirety.” He conceded the sample is tiny, adding that “would have ranked 15th over a full season.” A broken version of this offense still produced middle-of-the-pack scoring whenever its quarterback was upright.
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Rewind one more year for the ceiling. In 2024, Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Washington scored 485 points, or 28.5 per game, and the team reached the NFC Championship game for the first time since the 1991 season. That group did not disappear. It got hurt.
Jayden Daniels and a Wide-Open NFC East in 2026
The bet on Washington is really a bet on health plus reinforcements. Daniels and McLaurin are both expected back at full strength, which alone drags this offense back toward its 2024 shape.
Around them, the front office reloaded. Washington signed running back Rachaad White and tight end Chig Okonkwo in free agency to replace Ekeler and Zach Ertz, then spent a third-round pick on Clemson slot receiver Antonio Williams. New offensive coordinator David Blough is installing a system pulled from the Ben Johnson tree, with Daniels working more from under center. The defense, the unit that actually sank the season, gets its own overhaul.
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Then there is the neighborhood. The NFC East has no juggernaut waiting to run away with it, and this team has already proven it can win in January when Daniels is healthy. That is the entire argument. A top-five quarterback, a rebuilt supporting cast and a division there for the taking.
“This division has no runaway favorite,” Katz said. “Don’t be surprised if it’s the Washington Commanders atop the NFC East in 2026.” Bet against a healthy Jayden Daniels at your own risk.
