NFL’s most overrated quarterbacks revealed, plus ranking every first-round draft pick since 2020

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I hope you enjoy the next four days of your life, because starting Tuesday, football will be everywhere. That’s July 28, and it’s a magic date in the NFL this year because it’s when 26 of the 32 teams report to training camp. The other six teams have either already started training camp (Cardinals, Panthers) or will be starting this weekend (Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots). That means all 32 teams will be in camp by Tuesday. 

This is the weekend to tell your family you love them and that you’ll see them in February, but before you do, make sure you sign them up for this newsletter. Anyway, we’ve got a lot to get to today, so let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL

If you’re a Bears or Broncos fan who needs something to get mad about this weekend, Garrett Podell has you covered. Garrett put together a list of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL right now, and let’s just say, there’s a good chance that Garrett is going to be getting a lot of angry messages from fans in Denver and Chicago over the next few days. 

Let’s check out the top two names on Garrett’s list of overrated quarterbacks. 

OVERRATED

• Caleb Williams. He morphed into a turnover machine in the postseason, throwing two interceptions while completing just 24 of his 48 passes (50%) in the win against the Packers before throwing three more interceptions on 23 of 42 passing (54.8%) against Los Angeles. The third interception against the Rams came in overtime, dooming the Bears to defeat. That extreme level of inefficiency in the postseason wasn’t an outlier. He led the NFL in 2025 with 12 games possessing a completion percentage of 60% or lower, and no other quarterback registered a double-digit number of games in that category. Cam Ward was the closest with eight such games. The Bears’ signal caller finished the 2025 regular season with a 58.1% completion percentage, the second-worst in the league among 33 qualified quarterbacks. Williams’ potential is tantalizing because he clearly possesses a high ceiling thanks to phenomenal arm talent and mobility. However, the hope and buzz about Williams currently outpace the reality of his latest on-field performance last season. 
• Bo Nix. His lumps directly led to Denver struggling to consistently drive the football down the field. Three of the top four teams with the most punts in the 2025 regular season — the Browns (93), Titans (78) and Raiders (74) — missed the playoffs and fired their respective head coaches. The fourth team in that group is Nix’s Broncos, with 75 punts. He benefits from a strong offensive line and a strong defense. Add in the ankle injury, and it will be interesting to see what happens next in his career.

If you want to see Podell’s full list of overrated quarterbacks, you can do so here (in that same story, he also listed a few underrated quarterbacks, so be sure to check it out). 

2. Who have been the best first-round picks this decade? We ranked them all

There have been 191 first-round picks made so far this decade, and the only reason I know that is that Mike Renner decided to rank EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM this week.

This ranking starts with the 2020 NFL Draft and goes through the 2025 draft (Renner didn’t include the 2026 draft since we haven’t seen those players on the field yet). 

Let’s take a look at the top five first-rounders since 2020: 

1. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (No. 1 overall in 2020)
2. Patriots QB Drake Maye (Third overall in 2024)
3. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (22nd overall in 2020)
4. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20th overall in 2023)
5. Packers QB Jordan Love (26th overall in 2020)

Six of the top 10 players came from the 2020 draft, so it’s pretty clear that the first class of the decade was pretty strong. 

Now that you know the top first-rounders, let’s check out the bottom five. 

187. Colts QB Anthony Richardson (Fourth overall in 2023)
188. Titans OT Isaiah Wilson (29th overall in 2020)
189. Lions CB Jeff Okudah (Third overall in 2020)
190. Jets QB Zach Wilson (Second overall in 2021)
191. 49ers QB Trey Lance (Third overall in 2021)

Wilson and Lance are likely going to go down as two of the biggest busts of all time. If you have some time to burn today, then I highly suggest you read Renner’s full list of all 191 players here. 

3. Deebo Samuel landing spots: Teams that make sense for the former Pro Bowl receiver

With training camps kicking off around the NFL, Deebo Samuel still doesn’t have a team to play for. The former Pro Bowler spent last season with the Commanders, but he’s now a free agent. Samuel has hit the age (30) where most receivers start to slow down, but he doesn’t think that’s going to happen to him. 

As a matter of fact, Samuel seems to think he has a few years left in the tank. 

“I’m going on Year 8 … I still feel like I got a lot, at least like three, four good years left,” Samuel said. 

With that in mind, Jordan Dajani decided to come up with a few potential landing spots for Samuel and here are two of his more intriguing options: 

• Bengals. Some would claim the Cincinnati Bengals have one of the best wide receiving corps in the NFL with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but apart from those two pass-catchers, it’s questionable. Andrei Iosivas is the No. 3, followed by players like Mitchell Tinsley, Charlie Jones and the rookie Colbie Young. Imagine Joe Burrow operating out of 11 personnel with Chase, Higgins and then Samuel running around in the slot.
• Rams. Sean McVay has Puka Nacua and Davante Adams catching passes from reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford, but that didn’t stop the Rams from showing interest in A.J. Brown this offseason. Samuel wouldn’t serve as a major pillar for one of the best offenses in the NFL, but the perfect versatile playmaker to be sprinkled in on a well-timed reverse or third-and-short.

Dajani came up with five landing spots, and you can see his full list here.  

4. Rams are an unprecedented Super Bowl favorite

With the reigning NFL MVP (Matthew Stafford) and the reigning defensive player of the year (Myles Garrett) on their team, the Rams are currently the overwhelming favorite to win Super Bowl LXI. 

As a matter of fact, the Rams are an unprecedented favorite to win the Super Bowl this year. Let’s check out the top five favorites along with their odds: 

1. Rams (+550)
2. Bills (+1000)
3. Ravens (+1100)
4. Seahawks (+1200)
T-5. Chiefs (+1600)
T-5. Chargers (+1600)

As you’ll notice, the Rams are the only team this year with odds under +1000. Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, this marks just the fifth time that we’ve seen an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite like this.

Here are the previous four instances where there was only one team with odds under +1000: 

• 2003 Buccaneers (+800). Coming off their Super Bowl win in 2002, the Bucs were expected to make a run at another Lombardi Trophy, but their season fell apart quickly. In Week 5, they blew a historic lead against Peyton Manning‘s Colts: They led 35-14 with just 4 minutes left in a game they eventually lost 38-35. They dropped the Bucs to 2-2, and the Bucs eventually finished 7-9. 
• 2009 Patriots (+450). After watching Tom Brady tear his ACL in 2008, the oddsmakers figured he would return with a vengeance in 2009, but that’s not exactly what happened. The Patriots won 11 games in 2008 without Brady, but in his first year back, they went just 10-6. To make matters worse, they got absolutely dominated by the Ravens, 33-14, in the wild-card round. 
• 2010 Colts (+800). With the Colts coming off a Super Bowl appearance in 2009, they were viewed as a heavy favorite to get back to the big game, but that didn’t happen. In Peyton Manning’s final healthy season with the team, the Colts ended up finishing 10-6 and they didn’t come close to sniffing the Super Bowl after a shocking 17-16 loss to the Jets in the wild-card round. 
• 2018 Patriots (+600). The 2018 Patriots were the only team to handle the expectations that come with being an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite. The 11-5 Patriots didn’t earn homefield advantage in the playoffs, so they had to travel to Kansas City for the AFC title game in what ended up being an all-time classic with New England coming out on top, 37-31, in overtime. In the Super Bowl, the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 to give Tom Brady and Bill Belichick their final Lombardi Trophy together. 

As you can see, the Rams are the first NFC team in 23 years to be an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite. And it’s worth noting that in the four other instances where we had a heavily favored team, all four teams fell short of expectations during the regular season. (Three of the four teams finished under their projected win total while the 2018 Patriots pushed, so none of them hit the over). 

When you’re the Super Bowl favorite, you have high expectations, but when you’re an overwhelming favorite, the expectations that come with that can crush you, as history has shown. 

5. Ranking the NFL’s best farewell seasons

This could be the final NFL season for two major stars. Aaron Rodgers has already said that he’s likely going to call it quits after 2026, and then there’s Travis Kelce, who could also end up retiring after the season. With that in mind, Bryan DeArdo decided to dig deep through the annals of NFL history so he could rank the 10 best farewell seasons that have ever happened. 

Some guys get to ride off into the sunset, while others see their careers end on a low note. Let’s check out the top three farewell seasons on DeArdo’s list: 

1. Jerome Bettis (2005). The Steelers running back had the perfect storybook finish to his Hall of Fame career, winning a Super Bowl in his hometown of Detroit and retiring on the podium with the Lombardi Trophy in hand.

2. John Elway (1997). After winning his first Super Bowl in his 15th season, Elway contemplated his future for most of the offseason before deciding to return to help the Broncos win back-to-back Super Bowls. In Denver’s Super Bowl win over the Falcons, Elway let loose, throwing for 336 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown pass that gave the Broncos a double-digit lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Elway capped his MVP performance with a short touchdown run early in the fourth quarter.

3. Peyton Manning (2015). Manning’s final season was downright bizarre. Injuries limited him to 10 games during the regular season. And when he did play, it was clear that he was no longer capable of playing at a high level. It got so bad that Manning was in jeopardy of finishing the season and his career on the bench. But when the opportunity presented itself, Manning took full advantage. He replaced an ineffective Brock Osweiler in Week 17 and helped lead the Broncos to a come-from-behind win over the Chargers. Manning remained Denver’s starter through the playoffs and helped the Broncos win their third Super Bowl title.

Kelce and Rodgers will both be hoping to end their career with a Super Bowl title just like the top three guys on DeArdo’s list. If you want to see Bryan’s full top-10 ranking, we’ve got it here. 

6. Extra points: Tyreek Hill offers concerning update

It’s been a busy few days in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Tyreek Hill says he still has ‘no power’ in his left leg. It doesn’t look like Tyreek Hill is very close to returning to the field. The free agent receiver, who suffered a devastating knee injury back in September, said his left leg still hasn’t quite recovered. “My left leg is the one that I injured. I have no power in my left leg at all, so I’m trying to regain all the power back in my left leg,” Hill said on social media. “But it’s one day at a time.” Hill, who dislocated a knee while also tearing multiple ligaments, didn’t reveal a timeline for a possible return. 
• Door still wide open for Aaron Donald to return. With the Rams set to report to training camp on Saturday, Sean McVay was asked about the status of a possible Aaron Donald return, and he gave an interesting answer. “What he’s going to do is, he is thinking about this. He’s going to go through his process. And the one thing about Aaron Donald is, what he does, he does it full speed ahead,” McVay said during an interview with “The Daily Flock” podcast. My personal take here is that if Donald thinks he can still play, he’s going to return, so if I had to make a prediction now, I’d say he’s going to be back on the field soon. If he were planning to stay retired, then he would have already shut the door on a possible return and let everyone know that he’s definitely done. 
• The Rams are set to unveil two alternate uniforms tonight. It’s a big night for the Rams, who will unveil TWO alternate uniforms during an event for season-ticket holders. One of the uniforms has apparently already leaked out, and if the leak is correct, the Rams will be getting a gold jersey (You can see the leak here). Either way, you’ll want to keep an eye on social media to see what they reveal. 
• Jimmy Garoppolo might play this year. There was some speculation that Garoppolo might retire, but it now looks like that he actually wants to play this season. According to ESPN’s Mike Garafolo, the former Super Bowl QB is willing to play in 2026, but only in the right situation. Garoppolo spent the past two seasons as a backup QB with the Rams, but the most successful part of his career came in San Francisco, where he played for 6 seasons, including a Super Bowl appearance in 2019. Garoppolo could make a solid backup option for several teams, including the Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Buccaneers, Cowboys or Chargers.