NASCAR Chase Tracker: Who’s In, Who’s Out, Who’s On The Bubble?

NASCAR has a new playoff system in 2026. It’s back to the Chase.

Instead of win-and-in, it’s the top-16 drivers in the regular-season standings that will make the 10-race Chase, which will be a mini-season of its own with no eliminations. 

The 16 drivers will have their points reset for the start of the final 10-race stretch with the regular-season champion at 2,100 points, second place at 2,075, third place at 2,065, fourth place at 2,060 and so on by five-point increments with 16th reset to 2,000.

Three races remain in the regular season: Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona.

So who is in and who is out? 

Here’s a look:

Clinched

Four drivers have clinched spots in the field of 16:

— Denny Hamlin: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver clinched a spot after Atlanta with six races remaining. He has a 103-point edge on Ty Gibbs in the battle for the regular-season title.

— Tyler Reddick: The 23XI driver also clinched a spot after Atlanta with six races remaining. His five wins this year lead the series.

— Ryan Blaney: The Team Penske driver, who has two victories and a series-best 16 top 10s this year, clinched a spot after North Wilkesboro.

— Ty Gibbs: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has the most stage points of any driver this year with 195 and clinched a spot at Indianapolis.

In Good Shape

There are nine drivers who are 89 points or more above the cutline, and the last on that list (Joey Logano) would have to lose an average of 30 points a race to fall out. That’s not going to happen. Any driver who is 76 points (the most a driver can earn in one race) or more above the line would feel good at this point.

— Chase Briscoe (+166): The JGR driver gained 52 points on the cutline with his win at Chicagoland a month ago and that put him in the feeling safe category rather than on the bubble. He has continued to put distance between him and the bubble.

— Christopher Bell (+162): Bell has seven second-place finishes this year. That might not feel great, but if he keeps rattling off those types of finishes, he could very well challenge for the title.

— Chase Elliott (+160): The Hendrick driver has enjoyed his best start to a season with two victories but has not had a top-10 finish in his last nine races.

— Carson Hocevar (+147): The Spire driver has a win this year along with five top fives, nine top 10s and no DNFs. He, like the other drivers ahead of him, should clinch a spot with a couple of races to spare.

— Chris Buescher (+140): The RFK Racing driver has just one stage win this year but has had consistent finishes.

— Kyle Larson (+132): The Hendrick Motorsports driver and defending series champion was leading all drivers with stage points until Indianapolis, when he had a flat tire and crashed just as he took the lead near the end of Stage 1. He crashed again at Iowa and needs to find some momentum.

— William Byron (+103): The Hendrick driver has had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season and still seeks his first win. At least he can comfortably race without worrying about making the playoffs. But he would still want more.

— Daniel Suárez (+100): The Spire Motorsports driver might be the biggest surprise of the season. A ninth-place finish at North Wilkesboro put him in a position where he shouldn’t get caught by anyone outside the bubble. Just take a look at Indianapolis — he finished 17th but with some stage points, he gained seven points on the cutoff … and then he finished 23rd at Iowa and lost just three points.

— Joey Logano (+89): How much does a win mean? The Team Penske driver, a three-time Cup champion, went from eight points below the cutline to 49 points above with his victory at North Wilkesboro. Then with a third-place finish at Indy, he’s now up to 65 points and even a 14th at Iowa moved him up 24 points, thanks to 16 stage points.

On The Bubble

One or two good or bad races could change who is in and who is out, especially if any drivers below the bubble win a race or two. 

With 76 points being the most available in a race, I’d say right now any driver 76 points above or below is on the bubble. For those outside the cutoff, one win could potentially gain them 40 or more points. Joey Logano, for instance, has gained 97 points in the last three races with a win, a third and a 14th and a slew of stage points. But he’s a three-time champion who knows how to get it done when the pressure is the greatest.

— Bubba Wallace (+68): The 23XI driver had a wild last nine races with finishes of third, 21st, second, 22nd, sixth, 29th, sixth, 28th and 12th. He should be safe, but if someone went on a crazy run and he collapsed, he could be vulnerable.

— Shane van Gisbergen (+47): The Trackhouse Racing driver won at Sonoma last month to go from five points below the cut to 36 points ahead. But maybe a bigger surprise was a fifth-place finish at North Wilkesboro that added 23 points to his cushion and he should make The Chase with just average finishes the rest of the way. Just look at Indy. He gained three points with a 16th-place finish and then a wreck at Iowa lost him only 10 points.

— Austin Cindric (+29): The Team Penske driver likely expected to not be on the bubble. His fate probably isn’t determined as much by what he does versus those below him. If they win like Logano did at North Wilkesboro, Cindric could find himself out of luck.

 — Ryan Preece (-29): The RFK driver is a fighter and has a chip on his shoulder after a 25-point penalty earlier this year for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs. He has gained a total of 19 points the last couple of races on Cindric, so if he continues doing that, it will be close.

— Ross Chastain (-47): The Trackhouse driver had back-to-back top 10s entering Sonoma in June, but five finishes outside the top 10 have made this hill now too big to climb unless he can win. He did gain 35 points on Cindric, though, with a seventh-place finish and strong stage points at Iowa.

— Brad Keselowski (-48): The RFK driver and 2012 Cup champion was up 55 points on the cutline 10 races ago. Now it looks like he’ll need at least one win. Or at least some stage wins.

— Erik Jones (-50): The Legacy Motor Club driver thought he had a great opportunity to gain points at Iowa until Tyler Reddick spun and collected him. He finished 35th and still lost just six points to Cindric, which shows just how much he could have gained.

— Michael McDowell (-72): The Spire Motorsports driver didn’t take enough advantage of the road-course races. He has no chance without a win, but Indy showed he had some speed. Whether he will have it at the next couple of races before Daytona is debatable.

Little Or No Chance 

These eight drivers appear too far back to have even a remote chance to rally. A win might put them back into contention. Might.

— AJ Allmendinger (-88): The Kaulig Racing driver had been within striking range of the Chase but back-to-back 37th-place finishes ended his hopes before Indy.

— Todd Gilliland (-105): The FRM driver has been just a little too inconsistent this year, but he’s still won the $1 million prize by taking the in-season tournament. That will be the highlight of his year unless he wins a race.

— Zane Smith (-109): His season has gone a little south over the last month. The focus now is to get better to make a playoff run in 2027.

— Riley Herbst (-140): The 23XI driver has had an up-and-down season that has left him feeling good about an improvement over 2025 but still wanting more. 

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-143): His chances have slipped away last month and a wreck at Iowa was no fun.

— Austin Dillon (-144): The Richard Childress Racing driver will be a favorite at Richmond and could win at Daytona. But even those wins won’t be enough.

— John Hunter Nemechek (-153): The Legacy driver could ride the wave of improvement in the Legacy cars, but it is now too tall of a task to make the Chase.

— Alex Bowman (-213): The Hendrick driver missed four races because of vertigo earlier this year. He has three top-five finishes and just one additional top-10 finish.

Already Eliminated

— Cole Custer: The Haas Factory Team driver was eliminated after Iowa.

— Noah Gragson: The FRM driver was eliminated after Iowa.

— Ty Dillon: The Kaulig driver was eliminated after Iowa.

— Josh Berry: The Wood Brothers driver already knows he won’t be back next season, and was eliminated after Iowa.

— Connor Zilisch: The Trackhouse rookie has had a miserable season and was eliminated after Iowa.

— Cody Ware: The Rick Ware Racing driver was eliminated from contention after Indianapolis.

O’Reilly Series

One race remains in the regular season and 12 will advance. 

Clinched: Justin Allgaier, Jesse Love, Carson Kvapil, Sheldon Creed, Corey Day, Brandon Jones, Austin Hill and Sammy Smith.

Truck Series

Two races remain in the regular season and 10 advance. 

Clinched: Layne Riggs, Kaden Honeycutt, Chandler Smith and Gio Ruggiero.