The 2026 win totals tell you most of what you need to know about Florida football. Jacksonville opens at 9.5 wins and sits atop its division. Tampa Bay lands at 8.5. Miami brings up the rear of the entire league at 4.5. Three teams in one state, separated by a full five games before a snap has been played.
That spread is unusual, and it shows up in the way the lines have behaved through the offseason. A recent rundown of the sports betting apps in Florida noted that the Dolphins’ win total has drifted further than almost any team’s since the numbers first posted, a reflection of how much roster uncertainty the books are still pricing in. Stable rosters hold their lines through the summer. Teams in flux do not, and right now Florida has one of each. Here is where the three franchises stand heading into camp, and what the markets are saying about them.
Jacksonville Jaguars: From Worst to First, Now What?
The Jaguars made the biggest jump in the league last season, going from four wins in 2024 to a 13-win AFC South title in Liam Coen’s first year as head coach. That kind of turnaround is hard to repeat, and the market knows it. Jacksonville’s 9.5 win total ties them with Houston at the top of the division, and they sit around +3000 to win the Super Bowl.
The pullback is reasonable. The Jaguars lost running back Travis Etienne Jr. and Pro Bowl linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency, and they entered the draft without a first-round pick, choosing instead to extend defensive end Travon Walker and tackle Cole Van Lanen. If the defense holds its form and Trevor Lawrence plays the way he did down the stretch last year, ten wins is well within reach. Of the three Florida teams, the over here is the most defensible position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Same Question as Last Year
Tampa Bay is the team the books can’t quite settle on. The Buccaneers started 6-2 last season and looked like the class of the NFC South, then lost seven of their final nine to finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs. DraftKings set their 2026 total at 8.5 and still made them the projected division winner, which says as much about the state of the NFC South as it does about Tampa.
The roster turned over at the edges. Mike Evans is gone, along with veteran linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. Full seasons from Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka should cover most of the lost receiving production, and the front office spent its first-round pick on edge rusher Rueben Bain. The real swing factor is Baker Mayfield, whose 2025 split tells the story: 12 touchdowns and one interception across his first six games, then 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over the final eleven, based on CBS Sports’ breakdown of the division. Which version of Mayfield turns up will decide whether the Bucs push double digits or settle for another .500 finish.
Miami Dolphins: A Rebuild in Plain Sight
Miami is the outlier, and not in a good way. The Dolphins are tied with Arizona for the lowest win total in football at 4.5, with Super Bowl odds stretched out near +35000, the longest number on the board. There is no mystery about why: this is a roster being taken apart on purpose.
Out went head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The team traded Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick, released Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, and handed the keys to new head coach Jeff Hafley and quarterback Malik Willis. The Waddle trade in particular drew sharp reaction, with one breakdown of the Dolphins’ apparent tank job pointing to more than $100 million in dead cap as the engine behind the sell-off. Pair that with the league’s toughest projected schedule and the under at 4.5 reads less like a bet and more like a forecast.
Three Teams, Three Ways to Read the Board
The value in Florida this year is in the contrast. Jacksonville is the steady story, with a clear path to the over if the defense and Lawrence cooperate. Tampa Bay is the coin flip, tied directly to Mayfield’s week-to-week consistency. Miami is the long rebuild, where the only realistic angle is the under and, once the season starts, individual game lines as the new staff finds its footing. Same state, same division of attention from local fans, and three completely different conversations heading into September.
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