Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev prediction, decide: Will wrestling be the distinction at UFC 313?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. Right now, he takes a better take a look at the UFC 313 essential occasion title combat between gentle heavyweight champion Alex Pereria and challenger Magomed Ankalaev.

Alex Pereira UFC 313 preview

Staple information:

• Document: 12-2 MMA, 9-1 UFC
• Peak: 6’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs. Attain: 80″
• Final combat: TKO win over Khalil Rountree (Oct. 5, 2024)
• Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Storage (Danbury, Conn.)
• Stance/putting model: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Good

Supplemental information:
+ UFC gentle heavyweight champion
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ 5x Glory middleweight and light-weight heavyweight titles
+ Professional kickboxing report: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
+ Brazilian jiiu-jitsu black belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Knockout energy
^ Very good proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and proper cross
^ Instances splits and counters properly
+ Harmful knees and leg kicks
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
+ Serviceable grappling sport
+/-2-0 in opposition to devoted UFC-level southpaws

Magomed Ankalaev UFC 313 preview

Staple information:

• 19-1-1 MMA, 10-1-1 UFC
• Peak: 6’3″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs. Attain: 75″
• Final combat: Decision win over Aleksandar Rakic (Oct. 26, 2024)
• Camp: Battle Membership Akhmat (Russia)
• Stance/putting model: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Honest

Supplemental information:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Newbie MMA accolades
+ Grasp of sports activities in fight sambo
+ Grego-Roman wrestling champion of Dagestan
+ 11 KO victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Correct crosses and hooks
+ Arduous left kicks
^ Variates seems to be and ranges
+ Strikes properly off the breaks
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
^ Serviceable journeys and takedowns
+ Good positional grappler
^ Heavy ground-and-pound

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev focal point: Placing with a southpaw

Carrying a knack for countering, Ankalaev wields plenty of the offense that southpaws ought to by no means go away house with out. Whether or not Ankalaev lands counter crosses or misleading check-right hooks, the 32-year-old is nice at protecting his eyes open in exchanges.

Ankalaev additionally does properly at utilizing uppercuts and entrance kicks to test dips and stage modifications, which, in flip, rating to the physique.

Though Ankalaev appears to have a very good beat on spinning assaults (prone to do the robust Wushu Sanda presence in Makhachkala), he’s proven susceptibility to leg kicks and kick counters in his UFC profession. He has additionally proven cases of improved checks and kick protection all through this identical stretch, his legs will seemingly nonetheless be the goal for the sitting champion.

Many will instantly level to the counter left hook, however it’s in the end the proprioception of Pereira that makes him so correct and harmful in all that he does.

Whether or not he’s hitting his opposition with shocking spin kicks or splitting proper arms inside the hazard zone, Pereira demonstrates a preternatural intuition to search out and hit targets in movement. This may be why his defensive layers can appear lackadaisical at instances, however the Brazilian does a good job of taking part in off his lowered guard and purposefully gradual prods to be able to invite opponents into awkwardly angled counters.

When Pereira is the one pushing opponents on the again foot and in direction of a barrier, he wields one of many extra understated jabs in MMA.

Already submitted my #UFC287 breakdown for this week, however couldn’t assist throw this video collectively after listening to @TeddyAtlasReal discuss concerning the jabbing dynamic between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.

Tacked on George Foreman-Gullick to assist illustrate his Pereira comparisons: pic.twitter.com/Clws9Re94N

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 4, 2023

Pereira’s kicks, although improved (significantly when getting used for returns), additionally include a clumsy kicking gate in tow, nearly as if he’s attempting to remain planted for counter-hook attachments always.

When going through southpaws, Pereira will nonetheless goal his opposition’s lead leg, however isn’t past attacking the rear extremity a la Sittichai Sangkhachot. Pereira will nonetheless make the most of his lead hand successfully in opposition to lefties, exhibiting a knack for locating a southpaw’s blindspot with both left hooks or artful kicks.

Alex Pereira, who faces Jamahal Hill at #UFC300, has a restricted pattern in opposition to southpaws in each kickboxing & MMA.

Poatan will nonetheless jab the pinnacle & physique in addition to assault each legs within the open stance (focusing on the rear Sittichai model), however leans extra on countering traps in MMA: pic.twitter.com/XNfT5bUdLd

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 11, 2024

Nonetheless, Pereira just isn’t past consuming traditional southpaw kicks and counters, so he’ll must respect what’s coming again at him on the toes.

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev focal point: Potential grappling threats

Given the place the challenger holds an on-paper edge, nobody needs to be shocked if this occasion touches the ground on Saturday.

Though Ankalaev has proven that he can competently change ranges for an occasional takedown, the Stip Miocic doppelganger appears to want the clinch as his consolation zone.

A Greco-Roman champion wrestler of Dagestan, Ankalaev seems to use himself naturally in clinch area, which may come in useful this weekend. Whether or not Ankalaev is accompanying his underhooks with foot play for potential takedowns or is putting with onerous pictures off the break, he doesn’t appear to be quick on concepts in stated area.

That stated, Ankalaev can’t afford to get lackadaisical or underestimate Periera in closed quarters.

Regardless of the underhook being a bit vacant from Pereira’s repertoire up to now, the champion has proven to make use of it along with his different instruments in more moderen fights. Pereira already works properly off of collar ties and overhooks, so it’s good to see him including different techniques like underhooks and wrist controls as his MMA profession strikes on.

We haven’t needed to see a lot of Pereira’s jiu-jitsu within the octagon, however the Brazilian has clearly been specializing in all the pieces from his submission protection to his getups below the care of Glover Teixeira. When “Poatan” finally ends up on prime, his arms of stone translate seamlessly to the ground-striking side of MMA.

Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless onerous to not give an edge to Ankalaev in grappling exchanges.

Say what you’ll about Greco-Roman wrestling, however Ankalaev has some actual energy and a real skill to stymie clinch motion that may quietly put on on his counterparts. Ankalaev additionally appears to have some sambo and freestyle affect in his wrestling, subtly interplaying the legwork that’s not allowed within the Greco model.

Even when placed on his again, Ankalaev seems extremely calm and comfy whereas drawback fixing, neatly favoring re-wrestling into single-leg variations to be able to reverse fortunes. As soon as on prime, Ankalaev just isn’t afraid to go to pound city, as he clearly prefers place over submission.

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev odds

Regardless of the oddsmakers opening this line a bit wider within the champion’s favor, cash has come trickling in on the challenger, itemizing Pereira -120 and Ankalaev -106 through FanDuel.

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev prediction, decide

Contemplating that many, together with myself, have had excessive hopes and expectations for Ankalaev since he stepped onto the UFC scene, I can’t say that I’m stunned to see folks again him on the betting window.

Not solely does Ankalaev have the on-paper edge on the ground, however the Russian’s southpaw putting – that quietly holds robust as a trademark of his sport – may very well be a trickier puzzle to resolve than previous Poatan opponents have been.

Not solely is Ankalaev a southpaw who jabs and works the physique, however the looming risk of a possible takedown may assist stage the putting taking part in fields by freezing Pereira up (one thing we noticed in short stanzas through the present champ’s combat with Jan Blachowicz).

Nonetheless, Ankalaev will nonetheless must make some first rate hay no matter which route he takes if he goals to get forward of Pereira on the playing cards.

Pereira could have some robust countering instincts akin to Ankalaev, however the Brazilian bomber additionally is aware of when to get on his jab and begin getting on the fuel.

In Ankalaev’s protection, he’s proven strong consciousness on the subject of jabs and straight punches. That stated, his previous susceptibility to kicks will loom giant anytime he’s at vary with Pereira.

For that reason, it’s straightforward to imagine that we’ll see Ankalaev maintain his current pattern of improved putting stress, blended in with extra takedowns. However given among the perplexing performances that Ankalaev has put within the financial institution, I’ve a tough time trusting him to combat the appropriate combat, basically.

Whether or not we’re speaking about Ankalaev’s last-minute lapses in focus reverse Paul Craig or ready till Jan Blachowicz kicked out each of his legs earlier than urgent his takedown benefit, the Dagestani doppelganger of Stipe Miocic has delivered some irritating outcomes for his followers.

Even when Ankalaev can floor Pereira, I think that he’ll largely rating through stalemate positions, at finest (that means that the challenger will want no less than 3 robust rounds of wrestling to both win on the scorecards or critically put on down the champion).

The potential drawback with that, nonetheless, is that not solely has Pereira improved his takedown protection from the clinch – however the sitting champ has additionally proven glorious cardio and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in addition.

A Pereira knockout is at all times on the desk, however I think we get a drawn-out affair given each fighters’ propensity to counter and the stylistic grappling threats at play. It’s most likely not going to be fairly, however that is most likely going to be a contentious choice that’s determined between Anakalaev’s bodywork and management time vs. Pereira’s highly effective leg kicks and punches.

If Pereira doesn’t knock Ankalaev out with a excessive kick or splitting proper hand, then I imagine that the judges will nonetheless reward Poatan’s perceived influence over the constant bodywork of Anakalaev (one thing that MMA judges persistently underrate).

Prediction: Pereira by choice

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev begin time, the place to look at

As the primary occasion, Pereira and Ankalaev are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 12:10 a.m. ET. The combat airs through ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For extra on the cardboard, go to MMA Junkie’s occasion hub for UFC 313.