Last weekend was the start of the turnaround; I can feel it.
It was the most confident I’d been in making my picks in a long time, and the results followed with an 8-6 week against the spread and a 10-4 record straight up. With this much ground to make up to get back to .500 on the year, it’s all about just gaining ground each week. Let’s try to do it again. Before we get into the Week 9 NFL picks and officially cross the midway point in the NFL season, here is a look back at how I fared last weekend:
Season Record ATS: 47-74 Frey’s Pick: JAX -9.5
Lamar Jackson left last weekend’s game against the Buffalo Bills with an injury and seems to be heading to injured reserve. Tyler Huntley is no stranger to a starting role, having started multiple games in five of the past six seasons, but can he and the Ravens offense hold up against this stout Jaguars defense on a short week? I have my doubts. Derrick Henry has also slowed down significantly after his blistering start to the year with just one touchdown in the last four games. Jaguars win in blowout fashion.
Frey’s Pick: CIN -2.5
This game is taking place in Madrid. The Falcons are coming off a putrid performance last weekend, but this is a Bengals defense that has been prone to giving up points this season. On the other hand, the Bengals offense can also put points on the board, and I’ll take them to cover the spread here.
Frey’s Pick: NYG -3.5
Things have gone completely off the rails for the Philadelphia Eagles, which is why they are now home underdogs against a team they may have been favored by a touchdown against going into the season. Cam Skattebo seemed to take his Week 6 benching to heart with a great performance in Week 7 against the Texans. Now coming off a bye, I’ll take New York to keep things rolling. Frey’s Pick: NYJ +9.5
The Chiefs probably win this game, but the New York Jets have some talent on offense. If they can get the likes of Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Kenyon Sadiq rolling, they can certainly keep this game close. Don’t be surprised if this game goes well over 45.5 points.
Frey’s Pick: MIA +7.5
The Detroit Lions are starting to get on a roll after winning their fourth straight game last weekend against the Vikings, but could a letdown game be coming? I think it’s possible, especially heading out on the road. The Miami Dolphins aren’t winning a lot of games, but they find ways to stay competitive. Detroit wins, but Miami keeps this within a touchdown.
Frey’s Pick: DAL -5.5
Neither one of these teams have looked good over the last month. However, only one of them is in the midst of a fire sale. We don’t even know if Jonathan Taylor will be on Indianapolis’ roster by Sunday, and that by itself is enough for me to side with the Cowboys this week.
Frey’s Pick: LAR -5.5
The Rams are starting to show the version of this team that we thought they would be coming into the year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve won three of their last five games and have given up 21 or fewer points four times in that stretch. Myles Garrett could be back on the field this weekend too. I think LA picks up a road win in the nation’s capital.
Frey’s Pick: DEN -2.5
Could this be a letdown spot for the Denver Broncos after their heroics against the Chiefs last weekend? Perhaps, but this feels like a tough spot for Carolina. They’ve come back to earth offensively in their back-to-back losses, and a big reason for that has been injuries to the offensive line. Denver will bring pressure, Bo Nix will do just enough, and Denver covers the spread.
Frey’s Pick: NO -1.5
This is an interesting spread with a 2-5 team giving points to a 5-3 team. Both of these teams have had moments where they’ve looked very good, but they’ve also had moments where they’ve looked horrendous, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. New Orleans is coming off a bye week, and if they can keep this game close going into the fourth quarter, they should be able to pull off a win at home to start getting back on track. Frey’s Pick: SF -9.5
The 49ers have been as consistent as any team in the league this year, and they have had two weeks to get ready for this game. The Raiders went out east last weekend to play the Jets, and now they have to come back west to play the 49ers on the road. I’ll take San Francisco to win big here.
Frey’s Pick: HOU -4.5
It’s hard to imagine that these two teams were playoff contenders a year ago. The Texans seemed like they were getting back on track, and then they walked backwards all over themselves last weekend against the Giants. As bad as Houston has been, I think this is a game where they can win big. Justin Herbert has been a shell of himself, and despite bad numbers so far, Houston’s defense has enough talent to put together a win here.
Frey’s Pick: GB +3.5
This is a statement opportunity for both teams. The Green Bay Packers have played some good football this year, but they have gone overlooked because they are still last in their division. New England’s defense has been good enough to hang with anyone. I trust Green Bay a little bit more in this spot even with it being at Foxborough. Packers not only cover, but they get the win.
Frey’s Pick: SEA -12.5
Jeremiyah Love is heading to injured reserve for the Cardinals, and this is a tough spot for them to be in. They’ve been better than many thought they would be, but they’re facing a Seahawks squad that is undoubtedly furious after what happened on Monday night. The Seahawks get back on track in a big way here.
Frey’s Pick: CHI -6.5
It’s past time to start putting the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl conversations this year. This is a spot where a Super Bowl contender should put up huge numbers against a not-very-good Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. Jeffrey Simmons put on a show in his Bears debut, and I think he wreaks havoc again. Bears win at home.
Frey’s Pick: BUF -3.5
Last weekend confirmed a lot of the fears I had about the Minnesota Vikings going up against the best offenses in the NFL. Granted, Minnesota handled Chicago in Week 2, but they were absolutely torched on the ground last weekend against the Detroit Lions. I don’t see that changing much on Monday night against James Cook and the Buffalo Bills. Minnesota’s best hope is that Buffalo’s defense hasn’t exactly been great this year, but neither had Detroit’s. Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Season Record Straight Up: 69-51-1
Week 8 NFL Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
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