As the Vikings prepare to head to the heat in Tampa for Sunday’s matchup with the winless Buccaneers, Kevin O’Connell is surely sounding the alarm to his team about not overlooking the Bucs.
“Another road game, another very significant challenge,” O’Connell said. “It’s not lost on us the type of team Todd (Bowles) has, the leadership on that team, all the respect in the world for Baker (Mayfield). We know we’re going to get the best version of the Bucs.”
The Vikings have to beware of a letdown after two emotional wins in the division over the Packers and Bears. It will be a big transition from the rain in Chicago to practicing in mild Minnesota fall temps this week to a hot day (85 degrees and sunny is the forecast) that will test the early season conditioning level.
It may be a good time to play the Bucs who are turning the ball over on offense and struggling to adjust to new OC Zac Robinson’s scheme. Mayfield recently signed a $55 million per year extension after offseason tension about his contract but he has four turnovers (three lost fumbles against Cincinnati in the opening loss and he threw for only 182 yards with an interception in last week’s home upset to the lowly Browns where the Bucs pass defense was poor against usually lousy Deshaun Watson, who went 24 of 30, 238 yards, 2 TDs, no picks).
But it’s never a good time to face a team desperate for a win as the Bucs don’t want to fall to 0-3. They play in the NFL’s worst division—the NFC South—and they know a win will put them back on track in a division they won four straight years before falling just short at 8-9 last season when they lost seven of their last nine games.
The Vikings are happy to have Kyler Murray recovered from his concussion and set to start against the Bucs D that plays the run well but has struggled on pass defense. It should be a good opportunity for Murray to get on track after a shaky start against the Packers when he threw a pick on his first pass and lasted only 11 plays before leaving the game. 1. Murray play well and target Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison often against suspect Bucs corners and look for T.J. Hockenson vs. a secondary that has struggled against tight ends: despite saying all he wants to do is win and have Murray protect the ball as Wentz did (no turnovers in the first two games), O’Connell can’t be happy with the Vikings 31st-ranked passing offense (and last in the league in total offense). This is a good week to get the passing game going with Murray’s return and a struggling Tampa Bay pass defense that has gotten little help from the pass rush (three sacks in two games to rank 28th and first-round edge/OLB Rueben Bain has missed the past two days of practice with a groin injury).
Jefferson is off to just an okay start with 11 catches, only 147 yards, and two TDs. Addison has only two catches for 21 yards (Wentz has misfired to him several times) and must be a bigger contributor through more targets. Bucs corners Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish are beatable although Jefferson will surely draw a lot of double coverage which should open things up for Addison and Jauan Jennings, who returns after missing last week due to a death in his family.
Hockenson has seven catches for 65 yards (one TD) and I expect Murray to look for Hockenson and Josh Oliver often after the Bucs allowed Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki to have five receptions for 78 yards (one TD) in the opener and then gave up a combined six catches for 71 yards to Cleveland tight ends Harold Fannin and Blake Whiteheart (including the 17-yard game-winning TD from Watson to Whiteheart). Ex-Lion LB Alex Anzalone has allowed nine catches in coverage as he’s been targeted often in the first two games and Murray should do the same for the Vikings.
Bucs Coach Todd Bowles is blitzing third-most in the league so the Vikings have to pick up the blitz and Murray must get it out quick when necessary or run to escape pressure but slide or get out of bounds to avoid another big hit.
2. Run it enough: the Vikings certainly need Aaron Jones to recover from his minor knee injury sustained in the Bears game when he rushed 23 times for 105 yards. It was good news that he returned to practice on a limited basis Thursday. If he does play, he needs more relief from DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne.
I’d like to see the sixth-round rookie Claiborne get extended duty in this game and possibly break a long run with his speed but he has to hang onto the ball when the Bucs try to knock it loose. Claiborne also could be a factor in the passing game through screens and swing passes out of the backfield.
The Vikings have run it well the first two weeks (113 yards per game, 12th ranked) as the blocking has been generally good from the O-line, fullback Max Bredeson, and the tight ends. The Bucs, led by massive Pro Bowl nose tackle Vita Vea (347 pounds), will be a tough challenge up front. Leading tackler Josiah Trotter missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week with a shoulder injury and the Bucs will miss him if he’s out or limited.
3. Protect the ball and win the turnover battle: the Vikings are tied for the league lead with a plus 3 turnover ratio and their four takeaways rank second. The Bucs’ minus 4 is second worst as are their five giveaways. O’Connell said the lesson he wants Murray to have learned from watching Wentz is to not turn it over. There should be no more ill-advised throws such as the one Murray made against the Packers when he threw it up for grabs into double coverage when under pressure.
4. Defense stop the run including Mayfield’s scrambles: Bucky Irving has 134 rushing yards with a 5.4 yard average thus far. The Bucs have the same team rushing stats as the Vikings through two games (113 yards per game). Mayfield is a key part of that with 59 yards on the ground and he must be contained when he scrambles. The Bears rushed for 134 yards last week with Caleb Williams gaining 42 yards on the ground so the Vikings need to shore up the run D and force Mayfield to pass.
5. Pressure and sack Mayfield: there have been seven sacks of Mayfield and four turnovers by him in the two games. It’s a big challenge this week for leading sacker Dallas Turner (three sacks, 20 pressures to lead the league) as he’ll be rushing against five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs. Can Brian Flores scheme it up for Turner to sometimes rush one-on-one against a tight end as was the case at the end of the Bears game and he was occasionally unblocked?
Andrew Van Ginkel has a somewhat easier assignment vs. Luke Goedeke. And Jalen Redmond and his fellow defensive linemen (including first-rounder Caleb Banks who was up-and-down last week) must create interior pressure. It will help that Ty Ingram-Dawkins appears to have recovered from his oblique injury as he practiced fully on Thursday. The Vikings will need him.
Mayfield has been good against the blitz in the past but so was Caleb Williams going into last week. Flores is not going to back off against Mayfield but the Vikings need to get to him, not let him get loose running and cover downfield.
The Bucs want to get their leading wide receiver Emeka Egbuka going after he has only eight catches for 79 yards and one TD this season. WR Chris Godwin and tight end Cade Otton also are threats who must be covered well. Having Harrison Smith continue to ramp up with more snaps is a big help to the secondary’s communication and coverage (along with Smith’s threat as a blitzer making QBs nervous).
6. Secondary cover like the Bears game and not like the first half of the Packers game: it was much better in the secondary in Chicago (with the rain and wind making it more difficult). The Bucs clearly miss their top wide receiver from the past several years in Mike Evans who left for San Francisco in a move the Bucs likely regret. 7. Win on third down on both sides of the ball: after 8 of 15 in Week 1, the Vikings offense dropped to 3 of 13 in Week 2. The D has allowed only 8 of 27 (29.6%) to rank eighth. The Bucs defense is allowing a 48% conversion rate on third down to rank 25th while their offense is at 46%.
8. Solid special teams: punter Brett Thorson’s hamstring injury (that caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday) would be a bigger concern if the Vikings hadn’t re-signed Johnny Hekker who was them during the offseason and in training camp so he’s held for Will Reichard and punted well in preseason games. But having Thorson active would be better after his great game against the Bears (49.5 yard average and two kicks inside the 20 along with a great job holding for Reichard’s perfect day.
Neither Reichard or the Buccaneers’ Chase McLaughlin have missed a kick this season (McLaughlin was 4 of 4 including a 59 yarder against the Browns).
Kick coverage will be important. The Bucs’ Kameron Johnson is among the league leaders with a 30.6 yard average. But the Vikings’ Myles Price ranks even better (31.6 yards per kickoff return). And 12 yards per punt return.
9. Continue to limit penalties: the Vikings have had only three penalties in each game while the Packers had 12 and the Bears had eight. Their well-disciplined play has contributed to the two victories.
Prediction
Going back to the end of last season and the first two games this season, the Vikings have won seven straight games. The Bucs have lost nine of their last 11 games including the 0-2 start. Anything can happen in a given week but positive vs. negative momentum counts especially if the Vikings get off to an early double digit lead and the Bucs think “here we go again.” I think Murray will make enough big plays to Jefferson and Addison and the defense will force a couple turnovers. I’ve got the Vikings winning 27-19 to stay unbeaten and atop the NFC North with a home game up next against the Dolphins who are probably the NFL’s worst team in 2026.
Around the NFL in Week 3
1. In the NFC North, the Lions host the Jets who won their opener in Tennessee and blew a 10 point lead in last Sunday’s loss to the Packers. Detroit has the benefit of the mini-bye after their Thursday night loss in Buffalo. The Lions defense is struggling (35.5 points per game allowed the first two weeks) but the offense is good enough to overcome the defensive issues and beat the Jets.
On Monday night, the Eagles visit Soldier Field to take on the Bears who may be down to Case Keenum starting at quarterback due to Caleb Williams’ hamstring injury and his backup Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol. I pick the Eagles to win and drop the Bears to 1-2.
2. The Ravens and Cowboys head to Rio for the second annual Brazil game. I like Baltimore to rebound from their home loss to the Saints and handle the Cowboys.
3. On Sunday night, the Rams are at Denver in a game that should be close. It sounds like Puka Nacua (hip/groin) will miss a second straight game and with Myles Garrett also out, I’m picking the Broncos.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year … More about Jeff Diamond
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