That was ugly.
Week 2 did not go my way at all, particularly in the early slate on Sunday. It was a bloodbath. Nothing to do but get off the mat and try it again this week, though. After a 5-11 weekend, I’ll be hoping for a much better record.
Before we get into the Week 3 NFL picks, here is a look back at the absolute abomination that was Week 2:
Season Record ATS: 14-18 Frey’s Pick: GB -5.5
These are two teams that I really don’t trust right now, and this game being played on a Thursday makes it even tougher to pick. The Atlanta Falcons have looked completely inept outside of Bijan Robinson for two weeks and haven’t run a play inside the red zone all season. After their Week 1 collapse in Minnesota, Green Bay picked up an unconvincing win against the New York Jets last weekend. Still, this is the home opener for the Packers, and the crowd should bring some extra energy. I’ll take Green Bay.
Frey’s Pick: CAR -2.5
Deshaun Watson played fine football last weekend, but it needs to happen a lot more to give me any belief that he’s actually a starting caliber QB in the NFL. On the other side, Bryce Young looks like he’s playing to ensure he gets a new contract this offseason. I’ll take Carolina to keep rolling on that side of the ball and hope their defense can make a few stops. Frey’s Pick: NYG -2.5
The New York Giants may have been feeling themselves a little bit too much after their Week 1 win against the Cowboys, and they looked like hot garbage against the Rams on Monday night. Granted, a big reason for that was what looks like a season-ending injury for Jaxson Dart, but they got pushed around by LA on both sides of the ball. Luckily, they have a more favorable matchup this weekend against a Titans team that can’t seem to put anything together. If Jameis Winston can avoid throwing multiple interceptions, New York gets a win at home here.
Frey’s Pick: BUF -7.5
It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Los Angeles Chargers. It couldn’t have been a better start to the season for the Buffalo Bills, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. I’ll ride the hot hand in Buffalo here to put the Chargers massively behind the 8 ball in a competitive AFC West.
Frey’s Pick: NYJ +6.5
I wanted to overlook the thin Lions secondary, thinking their offense would be able to carry the way for them. The offense has been good, but the defense has given up 71 points in two games. Meanwhile, the Jets very easily could be 2-0 if a couple plays went their way on Sunday against Green Bay. Their offense isn’t elite, but it feels safe to count on Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall for a few big plays this weekend. I’ll take the Lions to win, but New York keeps it within a touchdown.
Frey’s Pick: SEA -7.5
Jayden Daniels’ dislocated elbow feels like a nail in the coffin for the Washington Commanders this season. Their offense already wasn’t an elite unit, and their defense doesn’t look any better than the bottom-of-the-barrel group they put forward last year. Sam Darnold could be back on the field for the Seahawks too, which basically ensures a double-digit win for the reigning Super Bowl champs.
Frey’s Pick: CIN -3.5
The Steelers have a close win over a Falcons team that just got blown out by Carolina and a blowout loss to the Patriots on their resume. The Bengals just put up a dominant road win against a Texans team that just couldn’t outlast the Bills in Week 1. I like that resume and Cincinnati’s offense a lot more than I like Pittsburgh’s, especially if Michael Pittman has to sit out again. I’ll take the Bengals to get a road win here.
Frey’s Pick: NE +2.5
The Patriots have scored 30 points through two weeks, which is more than just the Falcons, Chargers, Steelers, and Dolphins. AKA, a bunch of 0-2 teams and a 1-1 Steelers team that is only 1-1 because they played the Falcons in Week 1. It’s not great company, but New England’s defense has lived up to the hype so far. After Jacksonville’s Week 2 performance against Denver, it feels like this is going to be a pretty low-scoring game. I’ll ride with New England in that scenario. Frey’s Pick: HOU -2.5
This is a battle of two 0-2 teams in an AFC South division that has just one win through two weeks. Normally, this would be viewed as a must-win game for both teams. That’s just not the case in this division, and neither team has exactly had a cakewalk schedule so far. Still, the Texans were my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I need to ride with them to get things turned around.
Frey’s Pick: KC -11.5
The Dolphins aren’t good; it’s as simple as that. They can’t score, and they can’t stop their opponents from scoring. That’s a problem when you’re going up against a team led by Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City cruises to a win here.
Frey’s Pick: MIN -1.5
Here’s the dirty little secret about the Minnesota Vikings’ 2-0 start: they have the most net penalty yards in the league through two weeks. Given the history of this franchise, can we really count on the football gods to be on their side for much longer? On the other hand, something really seems off with Tampa Bay’s offense, and their defense hasn’t exactly been convincing, either. As long as Kyler Murray avoids silly turnovers, Minnesota’s defense is elite enough to carry them to a win here.
Frey’s Pick: SF -8.5
I picked the 49ers last week to win by 14 points against the Titans without hesitation, and credit to me, it was one of the few things I got right. I’m going to do the same thing here and pick them to win by at least nine points against a Cardinals team that just got torched by the Seahawks with Drew Lock at quarterback.
Frey’s Pick: LV +3.5
This is a fascinating matchup because I really don’t know what to think of either one of these teams. The Raiders are 2-0, but they won against teams that have looked like they’re going to live in the basement of the league this year. The Saints are a two-point conversion away from being 2-0, but they’ve had some concerning inconsistencies on the offensive side of the ball. I think what I’ve learned is every Saints game is going to come down to the final seconds, and I can’t pick them to win by more than a field goal, especially without left tackle Kelvin Banks. Saints win by three, but the Raiders cover the spread.
Frey’s Pick: BAL -3.5
This game is being played in Brazil because we needed it to be harder to pick between two teams that have had mixed results to start the year. This job can be tough sometimes, but someone’s gotta do it. I came away from Week 2 impressed with Baltimore’s passing attack despite the absence of Zay Flowers, but their late-game decisions against New Orleans raised some red flags. They need to spam Derrick Henry against a defense that has given up the third-most rushing yards in the league. As long as that happens, I think they pull off a win here. Frey’s Pick: LAR -2.5
Granted, they were playing against a Giants team without their starting quarterback for most of Monday night’s game, but it was a night-and-day performance for the Rams compared to Week 1, particularly on defense. Denver is back to their old ways of putting together comeback wins, too. This is shaping up to be a very good game between two Super Bowl contenders, but I’ll give the edge to LA.
Frey’s Pick: PHI -4.5
It looks like Tyson Bagent will be starting at QB for the Bears, but Saquon Barkley is also banged up heading into the weekend for the Eagles. I’m just not convinced Bagent can lead a primetime win. I’m taking Philadelphia here.
Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Season Record Straight Up: 18-16
Week 3 NFL Picks
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
