We are less than a month out from the MLB playoffs, and the field continues to set itself as the regular season winds down. With that, Kalshi’s MLB playoff qualifier market continues to heat up, with several teams still fighting for a wild card spot.
On Kalshi’s playoff qualifier market, eight teams sit with a 94% chance or better of making the playoffs, including three from the American League and five in the National League. Kalshi grades this market based on which teams qualify for postseason play.
MLB Playoff Qualifiers Market
- Milwaukee Brewers 99%
- Los Angeles Dodgers 99%
- New York Yankees 99%
- Tampa Bay Rays 99%
- Atlanta Braves 98%
- Philadelphia Phillies 97%
- Chicago Cubs 96%
- Boston Red Sox 94%
- Chicago White Sox 86%
- Houston Astros 74%
- San Diego Padres 48%
- Arizona Diamondbacks 47%
- Cleveland Guardians 44%
- Toronto Blue Jays 35%
- Texas Rangers 27%
- Seattle Mariners 20%
- Baltimore Orioles 16%
- Minnesota Twins 10%
- St. Louis Cardinals 7%
- Miami Marlins 4%
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3%
- Detroit Tigers 2%
- Kansas City Royals 1%
- Athletics 1%
- Los Angeles Angels 1%
- Cincinnati Reds 1%
- New York Mets 1%
- Washington Nationals 1%
- San Francisco Giants 1%
- Colorado Rockies 1%
The near locks
In the American League, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays sit at 99%. Boston holds the second AL wild card spot behind the Yankees.
Currently, the Red Sox magic number is 16, with the Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, and Baltimore Orioles all playing a role. Boston needs the four of them to have six total losses between now and the end of the regular season to officially clinch.
In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, and Philadelphia Phillies each sit over 96%. Both the Dodgers and Brewers are essentially in with 99%. The Braves are nearing the 99% mark with a 4-game lead on the Phillies in the NL East.
The Phillies have an easier path to a wild card spot with their 17 magic number. The Cubs’ magic number is 18, and they sit a massive 9 games back from the Brewers in the NL Central. Philly and Chicago clinch if they keep winning and those four bubble teams (Arizona, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis) take 7–10 combined losses.
AL playoff hunt notes
- Chicago White Sox are the only team in the 80% range and 3 games ahead in first place of the AL Central.
- The Houston Astros are 2 games ahead of the Texas Rangers in the AL West.
- Cleveland holds the final wild card spot over the Rangers by roughly one game.
NL playoff hunt notes
- Arizona holds a half-game lead over San Diego for the final wild card spot.
- Both Miami and St. Louis are within four games of Arizona.
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