Washington’s 2026 schedule is not a kind one on paper. Most preseason projections and the sports odds comparison sites have the Commanders pegged as underdogs in a big chunk of their 17 games this year. To be completely frank, it’s not hard to see why once you look at the slate: road trips to Philadelphia and Dallas to open the year, a brutal midseason stretch, and a division that still runs through the defending NFC East champions.
Nobody in Landover is circling this schedule expecting a run of blowout wins. But “underdog” and “hopeless” are not the same thing, and there are a handful of games where Washington has a real, specific case to spring an upset. Here are five of them.
Week 1 at Philadelphia Eagles
This is the one every Commanders fan already has circled. Washington closed out the 2025 season with a 24-17 road win over these same Eagles back in January, a game where the Commanders’ backups outplayed Philadelphia’s backups after Nick Sirianni chose to rest his starters ahead of the playoffs. That result will not mean much once real bullets start flying in Week 1, and Philadelphia will presumably have Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the rest of their household names on the field this time. But Washington has shown it can hang around at Lincoln Financial Field, and an early-season trip to Philadelphia always carries a bit of unpredictability before both rosters have found their rhythm.
Week 9 vs Los Angeles Rams
Washington has not beaten the Rams since a 27-20 win back in September of 2017, and the losing streak has carried through several different eras of both franchises. The Rams will roll into Landover in Week 9 fresh off three straight games in the west of the US (against the Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers). If there is a year for Washington to finally snap this particular drought, a well-rested home team catching a fatigued Rams squad looks like the best chance they will get in a while.
Week 11 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati missed the playoffs for a third straight year in 2025, and while Joe Burrow and that offense can beat anybody on a given Monday night, this Bengals defense has had real issues in recent seasons. This is a home game for Washington under the lights, the kind of primetime spot where a young Commanders roster with something to prove has occasionally punched above its weight. If Washington’s defensive front can create the kind of pressure it is built to generate, this is a very winnable game against a Cincinnati team that has looked beatable more often than not lately.
Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings
By Week 16, this Vikings game could carry serious playoff weight for both sides, which cuts in Washington’s favor. Road environments in December are never easy, but a Commanders team that still has something to play for in the final stretch of the season tends to be a different animal than one just going through the motions. If Washington needs a win here to keep its NFC playoff hopes alive, expect them to bring everything they have got at Minnesota, and depending on how the Vikings’ own season is shaping up, this preview of Washington’s playoff push into the NFC North race suggests the Commanders could be flying by the time they land in Minneapolis.
Week 18 vs Dallas Cowboys
Saving the most predictable one for last. Washington closes the season at home against Dallas in Week 18, and if the Commanders are fighting for playoff positioning while the Cowboys have nothing to play for, this stops looking much like an upset at all. Dallas resting starters or coasting through a meaningless finale against a motivated divisional rival with a home crowd behind them is about as favorable a script as Washington could ask for. Given the way these final-week Cowboys-Commanders games have gone in years past, beating Dallas here would barely register as a surprise.
Put it all together and Washington’s 2026 season does not need to be defined by its overall record so much as by which of these specific spots it manages to cash in on. String together three or four of these and a season that looks rough on paper suddenly looks a whole lot more interesting.
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