NASCAR Chase Tracker: Who’s In, Who’s Out, Who’s On The Bubble?

NASCAR has a new playoff system in 2026. It’s back to the Chase.

Instead of win-and-in, it’s the top-16 drivers in the regular-season standings that will make the 10-race Chase, which will be a mini-season of its own with no eliminations. 

The 16 drivers will have their points reset for the start of the final 10-race stretch with the regular-season champion at 2,100 points, second place at 2,075, third place at 2,065, fourth place at 2,060 and so on by five-point increments with 16th reset to 2,000.

Seven races remain in the regular season: Atlanta, North Wilkesboro, Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona.

So who is in and who is out? 

Here’s a look:

Clinched

No driver has clinched a spot.

In Good Shape

There are 10 drivers who are 105 points or more above the cutline, and they would have to lose an average of 15 points a race to fall out. And for example, Tyler Reddick, who finished 36th at Chicagoland, lost 16 points to the cutoff. There appears to be enough of a buffer that they should feel good even with a DNF or two.

— Denny Hamlin (+357 on the cutoff): The Joe Gibbs Racing driver should clinch in the next two weeks.

— Tyler Reddick (+313): The 23XI driver should also clinch in the next three weeks.

— Ryan Blaney (+244): The Team Penske driver has just one win but his 14 top 10s lead the series.

— Ty Gibbs (+220): The JGR driver earned his first career Cup victory this year and has seven top fives. Four DNFs are the only thing holding him back in the standings.

— Chase Elliott (+177): The Hendrick driver has enjoyed his best start to a season with two victories already.

— Kyle Larson (+176): The Hendrick Motorsports driver and defending series champion leads all drivers with 161 stage points this year.

— Chris Buescher (+134): The RFK Racing driver doesn’t have a race win or a stage win all year, but he has consistent finishes.

— Chase Briscoe (+131): The JGR driver gained 52 points on the cutline with his win at Chicagoland and that puts him in the feeling safe category rather than on the bubble.

— Carson Hocevar (+117): The Spire driver has a win this year with four top fives, seven top 10s and no DNFs. A pure example of why he should feel relatively safe in this spot — he finished 22nd at Chicagoland with no stage points and still only lost three points to the cutoff.

— Christopher Bell (+105): The JGR driver is feeling the pain of a broken left wrist. But he went from 60 points above the cutoff to 105 in the last two weeks, and that should make him feel safe.

One or two good or bad races could change who is in and who is out, especially if any drivers below the bubble win a race or two. With 76 points being the most available in a race, I’d say right now any driver 100 points above or below is on the bubble.

— Daniel Suárez (+100): The Spire Motorsports driver might be the biggest surprise of the season. Right at 100 points up, he (and frankly the two that follow him on this list) should feel relatively good but just can’t have poor speed and crashes over the next seven weeks.

— William Byron (+92): The Hendrick driver has had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season and still seeks his first win.

— Bubba Wallace (+77): The 23XI driver had a wild last five races with finishes of third, 21st, second, 22nd and sixth. A couple of more strong runs in the final seven weeks should keep him above the cut.

— Shane van Gisbergen (+30): The Trackhouse Racing driver won at Sonoma to go from five points below the cut to 36 points ahead. He then was 25th at Chicagoland and lost six spots to the cut. It likely will come down to the final race for SVG.

— Austin Cindric (+27): The Team Penske driver likely expected to not be on the bubble, but seeing teammate Joey Logano below the cutline is a sign that the organization has work to do.

— Erik Jones (+4): The Legacy Motor Club driver has surged as of late but a rough Sonoma dropped him back below the cutline before a 15th-place finish combined with a 32nd for Ryan Preece put him back above the cutline.

— Ryan Preece (-4): The RFK driver is a fighter and likely has a chip on his shoulder after a 25-point penalty earlier this year for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs. And the fact he got caught up in an incident early at Chicagoland, dropping him below the cutline, will only fuel that fight.

— Joey Logano (-16): The Team Penske driver, a three-time Cup champion, should never be counted out. His 12th-place finish at Chicagoland allowed him to gain 15 points on the cutline.

–AJ Allmendinger (-16): The Kaulig Racing driver is remaining within striking range of the Chase, and that’s a bit of an accomplishment for a team with no manufacturer support.

— Brad Keselowski (-19): The RFK driver, the 2012 Cup champion, was up 55 points on the cutline six races ago. He could rally quickly, but he’s going to have to get going. He dropped two spots in the standings with a 21st-place finish at Chicagoland.

— Michael McDowell (-34): The Spire Motorsports driver didn’t take enough advantage of the road-course races. He can’t have a bad finish the rest of the way and that still might not be enough.

— Ross Chastain (-36): The Trackhouse driver had back-to-back top 10s entering Sonoma, but two finishes outside the top 10 are making the hill much bigger to climb.

— Zane Smith (-62): The Front Row driver will need to rattle off some top-five finishes to get back in the mix. Getting into spats with Shane van Gisbergen won’t help all that much.

— Riley Herbst (-63): The 23XI driver lost 26 points to the cutline at Sonoma and then gained 21 points with a 10th at Chicagoland.

— Todd Gilliland (-76): The FRM driver has been just a little too inconsistent this year.

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-81): The Hyak Motorsports driver’s best hope might be to move up enough that, if he can win at Daytona, it could vault him into the Chase. But even that chance is slipping away.

— John Hunter Nemechek (-86): The Legacy driver could ride the wave of improvement in the Legacy cars, but it will be a tall task.

Little Or No Chance

No one has been eliminated from contention yet, but these eight drivers appear too far back to have even a remote chance to rally.

— Austin Dillon (-118): The Richard Childress Racing driver will be a favorite at Richmond and could win one of the drafting-style races at Atlanta or Daytona. But even a win or two doesn’t appear will be enough.

— Alex Bowman (-145): The Hendrick driver missed four races because of vertigo earlier this year. He has three top-five finishes and just one additional top-10 finish.

— Noah Gragson (-180): The FRM driver has shown speed at times, but the finishes aren’t there.

— Josh Berry (-190): The Wood Brothers driver already knows he won’t be back next season, and it could be a tough final half of 2026.

— Ty Dillon (-190): The Kaulig driver still seeks his first top 10 of the season.

— Cole Custer (-194): The Haas Factory Team driver still seeks his first top 10.

— Connor Zilisch (-212): The Trackhouse rookie has had a miserable season, having failed to finish seven of the 19 races.

— Cody Ware (-248): The Rick Ware Racing driver also seeks his first top 10 of the year.

O’Reilly Series: 

Four races remain in the regular season and 12 will advance. Clinched: Justin Allgaier.

Truck Series:

Five races remain in the regular season and 10 advance. Clinched: None.