Bullet point summary by AI
- Five MLB teams are poised to make aggressive trade deadline moves despite long-term risks to their franchises.
- Each club faces internal pressures ranging from expiring contracts to recent collapses that push them toward short-term fixes.
- The potential cost includes top prospects and future flexibility, with no clear path to October success for any of these teams.
Every year, there’s at least one team that ends up buying at the trade deadline only to collapse after the fact. For example: The 2025 New York Mets traded for a bunch of rentals, including Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers, only to miss the playoffs entirely. The 2023 Los Angeles Angels traded a slew of prospects hoping to compete in Shohei Ohtani’s final year under club control, only to fall apart almost immediately and finish the year under .500.
And this year, given how wide-open the standings are and how many teams with big preseason expectations have disappointed thus far, we’re on higher alert than ever before. These five teams fit the mold: They’ll likely be buyers at the deadline, but they really shouldn’t be.
San Diego Padres
AJ Preller has made a habit of this. He’s traded more prospects in exchange for star-level talent than just about anybody in recent years, and yet the San Diego Padres haven’t even been to, let alone won, a World Series during his tenure. And now the team is only trending downwards: The Padres might be a couple of games over .500 as of this writing, but they have MLB’s worst offense and an incredibly shaky starting rotation.
With prospects like Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield and Kruz Schoolcraft to dangle, Preller will likely go star-hunting again, hoping to squeak into the playoffs and watch his team go on a magical run. Unfortunately, the roster he’s built is more than just a trade or two away from getting into contention, which is something Preller will likely once again ignore.
Houston Astros
The pressure is on the Houston Astros to win, as both manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown are on expiring contracts. Unfortunately, the Astros, even with improved play lately, are just 31-37 on the year and still have one of MLB’s worst pitching staffs. In fact, Houston’s 4.89 staff ERA is the worst in the AL — and worse than any other team in the Majors except the Rockies.
With the lineup now as healthy as it’s been all year and the Astros only 2.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the AL, a desperate Brown might be willing to trade from an already beleaguered farm system to bolster the pitching staff. Unfortunately, that staff is more than a trade or two away from being good enough to do damage in October, and this team doesn’t have enough young, controllable talent to be giving some away.
New York Mets
The New York Mets are in a very similar spot to Houston: While David Stearns’ contract isn’t expiring, Carlos Mendoza’s is, and after such an embarrassing collapse in 2025, the Mets are clearly in win-now mode. After all, Steve Cohen said publicly earlier this season that simply getting to the playoffs would be a failure, and that he expects this team to go on a meaningful run in October.
New York might be bad, but they’ve been playing better recently, and they’re only 5.0 games back of a playoff spot. That’s close enough for Stearns to be a willing buyer, even with several teams to jump over in the standings. Even if the Mets can add a bat or two, though, does anyone really think this team can beat the Braves or Dodgers in the postseason? With no realistic path to the World Series in sight, the Mets are better off trading Freddy Peralta and others, although they’ll likely opt against doing that.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have already fired Alex Cora, so now all the pressure is on Craig Breslow to try and field a winner in Boston. While his job is reportedly safe for now, odds are that Breslow will be the next to go if can’t get the team back on track. Thus, he’s is only likely to sell if the Red Sox have virtually no shot of making the playoffs — and with how bad the AL is, I’m not sure we’ll reach that point.
With that in mind, the executive who has already traded for the likes of Danny Jansen, Dustin May and Luis Garcia is likely going to get another chance to buy in an effort to get Boston into the playoffs. The Red Sox are very clearly desperate for any hitter they can find, preferably one who hits right-handed. Let’s just hope he doesn’t trade away a prospect better than James Tibbs III this time.
Texas Rangers
With 38-year-old Jacob deGrom, 32-year-old Corey Seager and 36-year-old Nathan Eovaldi as their best players, there was no secret as to what the goal was for the Texas Rangers this season. Unfortunately, Texas is under .500 entering play on Tuesday, with an underperforming starting rotation and a lineup that ranks in the bottom five of runs scored.
Texas does hold the third Wild Card spot, to be fair, but that says more about how bad the AL is than how good the Rangers are. Even if they can add a big bat, I don’t see this team even overtaking the Mariners in the AL West, let alone seriously competing for a World Series berth. So the idea of trading prospects for maybe making the playoffs as a Wild Card team just doesn’t sound that enticing, even if their odds are higher than anyone else’s on this list.
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