Bullet point summary by AI
- Four MLB teams currently sitting in playoff positions show significant gaps between their actual and expected records.
- All four teams rely on unsustainable performance in close games and face depth issues that could derail their postseason hopes.
- The underlying metrics suggest these teams may struggle to maintain their standings as the season approaches the trade deadline decisions.
June has arrived, and before you know it, MLB teams will have to decide whether they’re going to buy or sell at this summer’s trade deadline. But that calculation isn’t as simple as just taking a look at the standings — all due respect to Bill Parcells, sometimes you’re more (or less) than your record says you are.
There’s been no shortage of surprises so far this season, from preseason favorites disappointing to afterthoughts occupying playoff spots. How many of them are built to last, though? And how many will prove to be a flash in the pan? Below are four teams currently smack in the middle of the postseason picture who the underlying numbers suggest will fall by the wayside by October.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Actual record: 37-25
- Expected record: 32-30
This isn’t to suggest that Tampa is fully a fluke, but it’s hard to square the best winning percentage in the AL with how this roster has performed to date. Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Nick Martinez have been dynamite atop the rotation, but Martinez is drastically outperforming his expected metrics and the Rays have been holding the rest of their starting staff together with duct tape. As for the lineup, well, exactly three regulars have an OPS above league average: Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero.
And yet, thanks to some timely offense and a spectacular 9-3 record in one-run games, Tampa remains tied for first place in the AL East despite a +7 run differential that ranks fifth in the American League. With just three wins in their last 13 games, though, the cracks in the foundation may be starting to show.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Actual record: 35-30
- Expected record: 30-35
Speaking of success in one-run games! The Phillies are a whopping 14-5 in such contests, maybe the single biggest reason — you know, beyond the arm of Cristopher Sanchez and the bats of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — that they’ve been able to get off the mat and back into sole possession of the second Wild Card spot in the NL.
Their -19 run differential, however, points to a team that still has some very clear flaws, even if that number is deflated a bit by Philly’s slow start to the season. The lineup behind Schwarber, Harper and Brandon Marsh remains a huge question mark, as does the rotation behind Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and the improving Jesus Luzardo. It’s hard to talk yourself into this Phillies squad having the requisite depth to really hang with the giants of the National League.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Actual record: 35-28
- Expected record: 31-32
Credit to the Cardinals, who have kept their heads above water for far longer than I or just about anybody outside of St. Louis expected. And there are some genuinely positive indicators here moving forward, particularly on offense, where a really fun core is emerging around Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson.
All that said … I mean, this still doesn’t really feel like a playoff team, if we’re being honest. Michael McGreevy is the only Cardinals starting pitcher with an ERA currently above league average — although Dustin May has looked good lately — and in general it’s just hard to win big with such an anonymous pitching staff. St. Louis deserves major credit for being so competitive so early in the Chaim Bloom era, but their status as legit NL Central contenders is built on the back of unsustainable late-game luck that will likely catch up with them sooner or later.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Actual record: 34-31
- Expected record: 31-34
We would’ve put the San Diego Padres in this spot a few weeks ago, but the regression gods have already struck to the tune of just two wins in their last 13 games. So instead we’ll go with the team that has used that skid to jump into second place in the NL West: the Diamondbacks, who currently occupy the third and final Wild Card spot but still have an ugly -10 run differential for the year.
And really, that feels about right for this team. The bullpen has been and remains a bit of a mess, while Arizona ranks just 24th in the league in wRC+ — and dead last against right-handed pitching thanks to a righty-heavy lineup. Does anyone really believe that Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka are going to pitch a team to the playoffs in 2026? This is an exceedingly average team (although hey, who knows, average might be good enough in this topsy-turvy season).
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