The most unexpected surprises in the MLB standings right now

Memorial Day has come and gone, meaning that in the eyes of many fans, MLB teams have played enough games for the standings to actually mean something. No, the current standings are unlikely to remain unchanged come late September. But odds are that most of the teams playing well and poorly now will still be doing well and poorly record-wise by the end of the season.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the biggest surprises when looking at the standings two months into the regular season.

NL Central

Heading into the season, MLB fans overlooked the NL Central when discussing the best divisions in the sport. The NL West had the back-to-back defending champion Dodgers. The NL East had the Phillies, Mets and Braves, three teams expected to be in the thick of postseason contention. The AL East figured to have four or even five competitive teams along with a history of being the toughest division in the sport for quite some time.

Well, the NL Central shouldn’t have been overlooked, because it’s been the best division in the league by far thus far. Each of the five teams in the division sits above the .500 mark, and that’s been the case virtually all season long. There was reason to expect the Brewers, Cubs and even Reds to be in contention, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are playing as well as they have in a decade, and the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that expected to take a step back this season after trading a slew of veterans for prospects over the winter, are in second place and would be postseason-bound if the season ended today.

While I don’t expect all five of those teams to end the year with winning records, two months of this suggests that each of them can be at least competitive. It’ll be interesting to see how the division shakes out.

Small-market phenoms

Many MLB fans believe that the Dodgers are “breaking baseball” by spending tons of money and acquiring stars every winter, but it’s clear when looking at the standings now that big payrolls guarantee absolutely nothing. Sure, L.A. remains really good, but other big-market teams (Mets, Red Sox, Giants, etc.) have struggled, while small-market teams have been playing extremely well.

At 34-19, the Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in the American League. The 33-25 Cleveland Guardians have the largest division lead in the AL at 3.5 games. The aforementioned Brewers are 33-20, even after trading Freddy Peralta away in the offseason.

Outside of the Colorado Rockies, there isn’t really an uncompetitive team here among the league’s smallest spenders. Only four of the 11 smallest payrolls in the sport have sub-.500 records, while three of the top six highest spenders have losing records. For those still insisting there isn’t parity in the Majors, payroll disparity is not the reason why, at least not thus far this season.

Washington Nationals

Expectations were as low for the Washington Nationals as they were for any team entering the year, especially after trading MacKenzie Gore away for prospects in the offseason. Well, they’re 29-28 right now, sitting above .500 and just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies — a team many expected to be in World Series contention entering the year.

The pitching without Gore has been a major issue, as Washington has allowed the third-most runs in the league. But when you score more runs than any other team, you can overcome putrid pitching to an extent. Yes, the Nationals have scored more runs than the Dodgers, Yankees and everyone else to date.

I expect their offense to slow down a bit, and their record to sag as a result. But Washington having a winning record this deep into the season, especially with the pitching performing about as poorly as expected, is shocking — and really cool to see.

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox were another expected bottom-feeder entering the year, yet if the season ended today, they’d grab a playoff spot. At 28-27, the White Sox are in sole possession of the second Wild Card spot in the AL, and they’re only 3.5 games back of the first-place Guardians.

And unlike Washington, I’m not sure the White Sox will slow down anytime soon. Their young position player core, led by Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas, continues to thrive. Davis Martin continues his breakout season on the mound while Grant Taylor has been dominant in relief, and the White Sox have other prospects, including the recently promoted David Sandlin, on the verge of contributing in the Majors.

Their young core, combined with a lackluster division, should allow them to defy the preseason odds and remain in the AL Central hunt.

New York Mets

While it’s been cool seeing the White Sox and Nationals exceed expectations, it’s worth noting some teams that have struggled. The New York Mets, armed with the league’s second-highest payroll, have been as disappointing as anyone thus far: At 23-33, the Mets are in last place in the NL East and have the third-worst record in the NL.

Injuries have played a clear role in their struggles. Not only is Clay Holmes, the team’s most consistent starter, on the sidelines for a while, but the trio of Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette has played a total of nine games together. Both Soto and particularly Lindor have missed significant time on the IL, and while Bichette has been healthy, he’s been one of the worst qualified hitters in the National League.

The Mets improved their run prevention this winter, as David Stearns hoped they would, but that has come at the expense of their run production, which has been nonexistent. It’s possible that when Lindor, Jorge Polanco and others return, this lineup can find ways to string wins together — but by that point, it might be too late.

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