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Kevin PeltonJan 8, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
- Co-author, Professional Basketball Prospectus sequence
- Previously a advisor with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP score and SCHOENE system
In some methods, WNBA free company in 2025 is a costume rehearsal for the insanity to return subsequent yr.
With the league and its gamers affiliation starting the method of negotiating a brand new collective bargaining settlement (CBA) and the expectation that the wage cap will soar dramatically because of escalating nationwide TV offers that start in 2026, just about each veteran WNBA participant will probably be a free agent in 12 months.
Moreover, the flexibility for WNBA groups to designate core gamers — one thing that might change within the subsequent CBA — will form this yr’s free company. Three of the highest 5 gamers in my wins above alternative (WARP) participant projections are eligible to obtain the core designation, and 5 of the highest 10.
Nonetheless, loads of motion may be on the horizon because the negotiating and commerce interval opens Jan. 21. And, just like the groups that met in October’s WNBA Finals, franchises can have the flexibility to alter their fortunes in free company. The WNBA champion New York Liberty constructed an excellent group in 2023 by signing former MVP Breanna Stewart and All-Star Courtney Vandersloot, whereas the 2024 runner-up Minnesota Lynx bolstered their core final offseason by including Alanna Smith and Courtney Williams as free brokers.
Who’re the highest gamers who may very well be difference-makers on this yr’s free company? Let’s break down my prime 10 as projected for the upcoming season primarily based on their efficiency over the previous three seasons and their age. And we have a look at eight different key gamers obtainable.
1. Breanna Stewart
New York Liberty, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 30
Projected WARP: 7.8
Stewart’s transfer to New York in free company two years in the past stays the most important in league historical past, translating into the Liberty’s first WNBA championship final season. As a result of final yr’s core designation was Stewart’s first, New York can apply the core once more. Both manner, she appears sure to stick with the Liberty on one other one-year deal that enables Stewart to get a deserved elevate in 2026 and will create cap flexibility for New York so as to add expertise round her.
2. Nneka Ogwumike
Seattle Storm, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 34
Projected WARP: 4.3
Final season’s most notable free agent to alter groups, Ogwumike’s departure from the Los Angeles Sparks for the Storm did not translate into the type of playoff success the group had hoped for, however she was extremely productive individually. Ogwumike was Seattle’s greatest participant, capturing a career-high 40.5% on 3s and incomes All-WNBA second-team honors for the third consecutive yr.
Having already been cored the utmost two occasions throughout her time with the Sparks, Ogwumike will probably be fully unrestricted as she was in 2024. However Ogwumike’s offseason media appearances — together with speaking about her shut relationship with Storm coach Noelle Quinn on the “A Touch More” podcast with Seattle co-owner Sue Chook and Megan Rapinoe — have sounded as if she plans to return.
3. Alyssa Thomas
Connecticut Sun, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 32
Projected WARP: 3.9
A top-five finisher in MVP voting every of the previous three seasons, Thomas has by no means rated fairly as nicely by WARP as anticipated primarily based on her low-efficiency scoring. After all, Thomas contributes in quite a few different methods, together with rating second within the WNBA in assists per recreation with 7.9 in each 2023 and 2024 and defending quite a lot of totally different positions. Thomas has been the fixed as Connecticut has reached the WNBA semifinals six consecutive years.
Remarkably, Thomas has by no means been cored, that means she’s eligible to obtain that designation after finishing a four-year deal signed in 2021. The query then turns into whether or not Thomas would possibly push for a commerce after telling The Subsequent web site in the course of the playoffs that having to share the group’s apply courtroom with a celebration was “the ultimate disrespect.”
4. Emma Meesseman
Ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 31
Projected WARP: 3.7
Meesseman final performed within the WNBA in 2022, when she was an All-Star after averaging 12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG and three.8 APG for a Chicago Sky group that tied for the league’s greatest file in the course of the common season. The previous two years, Meesseman has prioritized representing her nationwide group, leading to a gold for Belgium at 2023 EuroBasket and a visit to the semifinals within the Paris Olympics.
That might change this season, with Meesseman’s coach on the nationwide group (Rachid Meziane) becoming a member of Connecticut as head coach. Meesseman stays a dominant worldwide participant, having led all scorers final yr throughout Olympic play at 23.3 PPG to make the event’s All-Star 5.
5. Kelsey Plum
Las Vegas Aces, guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 30
Projected WARP: 3.7
It is uncommon for the Aces to have a key participant hit free company. Their stars have usually signed extensions beforehand, together with Plum in July 2022. Though Las Vegas might use the core designation on Plum, that may point out an curiosity in testing the market.
An All-Star every of the previous three years and an All-WNBA first-team decide in 2022, Plum has seen her scoring decline since. Final yr’s slight dip was largely tied to Plum capturing 37% on 3s, which seems just like the outlier. Plum hit at the least 38.6% of her 3-pointers in every of the earlier three seasons and shot 39% over the season’s closing 27 video games.
6. Brionna Jones
Connecticut Solar, middle
Age as of Feb. 1: 29
Projected WARP: 3.7
Regardless of sustaining an Achilles rupture in June 2023, remarkably Jones was again on the courtroom for opening night time and performed in all 40 video games final season for the Solar. An All-Star for the third time up to now 4 seasons — a stretch interrupted solely by the harm — Jones noticed her per-minute scoring (18.2 per 36 minutes) stay according to the 13 video games she performed in 2023.
Having been Connecticut’s core participant every of the previous two years, Jones will probably be totally unrestricted, and figures to attract max affords from different groups.
7. DeWanna Bonner
Connecticut Solar, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 37
Projected WARP: 3.6
The third key Solar free agent, Bonner turned 37 in the course of the 2023 season however stays one of many league’s most sturdy gamers. Bonner performed all 40 video games for the second consecutive yr and averaged 15.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG whereas extending a streak of her group reaching the playoffs each season since 2013. (Bonner missed the 2017 season as a result of she gave delivery to twins, however her Phoenix Mercury group superior to the playoffs.)
Bonner’s future may be tied to her fiancée, Alyssa Thomas, however sources instructed ESPN’s Alexa Philippou final yr that Bonner thought-about becoming a member of different groups as an unrestricted free agent — together with the Mercury and Storm — earlier than re-signing in Connecticut.
8. Brittney Griner
Phoenix Mercury, middle
Age as of Feb. 1: 34
Projected WARP: 3.4
Since being free of wrongful detainment in Russia, Griner has remained one of many WNBA’s prime put up gamers, averaging 17.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 1.5 BPG final season. Her 58% capturing was narrowly a profession excessive. Solely Griner sitting out a mixed 19 video games over the previous two seasons retains her from rating greater on this listing.
Having performed her total profession in Phoenix, Griner has re-signed with the Mercury as an unrestricted free agent the previous two offseasons, and there isn’t any cause to anticipate that to alter.
9. Satou Sabally
Dallas Wings, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 26
Projected WARP: 2.7
Take into account Sabally a free agent to look at regardless of Dallas’ means to designate her as a core participant. The Wings should handle the potential of getting each Sabally and guard Arike Ogunbowale as unrestricted free brokers in 2026 if Sabally performs out a one-year deal, which might imply having to decide on between the 2 for a single core spot at most.
The time Sabally has sat out as a result of harm over the previous three seasons, together with all 25 video games earlier than the 2024 Olympic break due to shoulder surgical procedure, pushes her projection down. When on the courtroom, Sabally has been one of many league’s greatest gamers, incomes All-WNBA first-team honors and profitable Most Improved Participant in 2023. Add that Sabally is well the youngest participant within the prime 10 free brokers and Dallas might get tantalizing commerce affords if she prefers to play elsewhere.
10. Kelsey Mitchell
Indiana Fever, guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 29
Projected WARP: 2.7
As soon as Mitchell clicked with Rookie of the Yr Caitlin Clark, they fashioned one of many WNBA’s most dynamic backcourt duos. Mitchell performed the perfect basketball of her profession after the Olympic break, averaging 24.8 PPG on 45% 3-point capturing earlier than taking part in solely 5 minutes within the Fever’s season finale with the group locked into its playoff spot.
Utilizing the core designation on Mitchell will probably be a straightforward selection for Indiana, assuring one other yr for Mitchell to develop alongside Clark and Aliyah Boston.
Different free brokers of observe
DiJonai Carrington
Connecticut Solar, guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 27
Projected WARP: 1.8
Restricted free agent
As the highest restricted free agent obtainable, Carrington is in an fascinating spot. We have not seen a restricted free agent signal a suggestion sheet since 2020, and any cope with one other group have to be for no less than two years — which might stop Carrington from getting a giant elevate in 2026 when the cap jumps. Nonetheless, such a deal may very well be value signing if the Solar aren’t prepared to enhance the $82,754 qualifying provide they need to tender to make her a restricted free agent. That might present leverage for Carrington to get extra on a one-year cope with Connecticut or negotiate a sign-and-trade elsewhere.
Chennedy Carter
Chicago Sky, guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 26
Projected WARP: 1.5
Restricted free agent
Like Carrington, Carter should cope with the issues of restricted free company. Having spent 2023 out of the WNBA and performed for the league minimal final season, Carter may not have as broad a market regardless of a breakout season that noticed her common 17.5 PPG on 49% capturing.
Tina Charles
Atlanta Dream, middle
Age as of Feb. 1: 36
Projected WARP: 1.5
Additionally out of the WNBA in 2023, Charles began all 39 video games final season for the Dream, averaging 14.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG. There was a reputable argument for Charles to be an All-Star. She turned the WNBA’s all-time main rebounder final season and handed Tina Thompson for second on the league’s scoring listing, although catching Diana Taurasi — almost 3,000 factors forward — is not sensible.
Tiffany Hayes
Las Vegas Aces, guard/ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 35
Projected WARP: 1.4
After asserting her retirement from the WNBA in December 2023, Hayes reconsidered and joined the Aces six video games into final season. Hayes overcame the missed time to win the Sixth Participant of the Yr award, averaging 9.5 PPG off the bench on 50% capturing from the sector and 40% from 3-point vary. Assuming Hayes desires to proceed taking part in within the WNBA — she’s at present lively within the Unmatched 3-on-3 league — she has lots left to contribute.
Natasha Howard
Dallas Wings, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 33
Projected WARP: 1.2
At season’s finish, Howard posted on social media, “I sit up for this subsequent chapter with a brand new group and new metropolis,” suggesting she would not plan to stay with the Wings. Lengthy one of many WNBA’s most versatile put up gamers, Howard figures to be a powerful different for groups that may’t land the likes of Ogwumike and Meesseman at energy ahead. A return to Indiana, the place Howard started her WNBA profession, would make a whole lot of sense.
Diana Taurasi
Phoenix Mercury, guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 42
Projected WARP: 0.8
Taurasi has but to point whether or not she plans to retire or return for an unprecedented twenty first WNBA season after being honored with a possible “If it is the final time …” celebration when the Mercury closed out the 2024 season. Fans chanted, “One more year,” and there isn’t any query if it occurs that may occur with Phoenix, Taurasi’s solely WNBA group.
Courtney Vandersloot
New York Liberty, guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 35
Projected WARP: 1.5
With Vandersloot away from the group for bereavement depart after the loss of life of her mom, Jan, she noticed her function change with Sabrina Ionescu‘s growth as an on-ball creator. Vandersloot averaged a career-low 22.3 MPG and moved out of New York’s beginning lineup in the course of the playoffs. On a group with much less shot creation, Vandersloot’s playmaking — nonetheless elite — might show extra helpful, alongside along with her veteran mentorship of one other promising level guard like Ionescu.
Gabby Williams
Seattle Storm, ahead
Age as of Feb. 1: 28
Projected WARP: 1.3
Williams’ projection is artificially low as a result of she performed solely 22 video games over the previous two WNBA seasons, becoming a member of the Storm late due to a concussion sustained taking part in in France throughout 2023 and her dedication to the French nationwide group final yr. Additionally voted to the Olympic All-Star 5 after main the host nation to the gold-medal recreation, Williams averaged a career-high 10.3 PPG in 12 video games for Seattle.
Now that Williams is taking part in in Turkey for EuroLeague energy Fenerbahce, the WNBA’s prioritization rule will not have an effect on her availability. (Williams most likely will miss time to characterize France within the June EuroBasket competitors.) In consequence, anticipate Williams to attract max-level affords.
