The XFL playoffs begin Saturday because the Arlington Renegades (4-6) journey to Houston within the South Division title recreation. The Houston Roughnecks (7-3) swept the season sequence with a 9-point win in Week 2, adopted by a 16-point victory in final week’s regular-season finale. Sadly, a San Antonio loss earlier than kickoff robbed the sport of any playoff implications, so we noticed each groups sit some key starters. Nevertheless, it was clear each groups had been taking part in to win, and there are many takeaways we will carry over into this recreation. So, can the third time be a allure for Arlington? Or will the Renegades proceed to come back up brief? Let’s dive into the matchup between two of the XFL’s most recognizable coaches in Wade Phillips and Bob Stoops.
Arlington Renegades +6 at Houston Roughnecks (O/U 41.5)
Is there another spot left within the XFL season the place we will fade Stoops and Arlington? You wager there’s. The Renegades had been by far essentially the most overrated group within the XFL. They did not cowl the primary 4 weeks of the season and completed with the league’s worst file ATS (3-7). Yearly in the course of the NFL playoffs, you’ll hear it repeated that it is arduous to beat a group thrice in the identical season. Bettors know that is merely not true, particularly when one group is flat-out higher on either side of the ball. That is what we now have right here with the Roughnecks and Renegades. Final week’s recreation might not have featured all of the starters, however two issues caught out that may play an enormous position on this recreation.
The Roughnecks moved the ball at will with backup QB Cole McDonald, whereas Arlington’s offense was a catastrophe with beginning QB Luis Perez. I had excessive hopes for Arlington after the acquisition of Perez, however the Roughnecks stored Stoops’ offense out of the top zone in a 25-9 win. The Renegades had first-and-goal on the 1-yard line earlier than the half and needed to accept one in all their three subject objectives after failing to punch it in.
Arlington had no solutions on protection for Roughnecks working again Jeremy Cox, who ran for 120 yards and a landing. Cox, who not too long ago signed with the group, supplied Houston’s working recreation with the burst it lacked in the course of the season. Houston averaged 6.8 yards per play final week and had eight speeding first downs. It is arduous to think about Houston not having much more offensive success with beginning QB Brandon Silvers again within the lineup.
I wager Houston to cowl the large quantity. They’re 4-1 ATS as a house favourite this 12 months and have lined two out of thrice when favored by 5.5 factors or extra. It’s the higher group on either side of the ball and has a playmaking protection that leads the XFL in sacks (35) and defensive touchdowns (5). My cash is on Phillips having the protection dialed in, and the Roughnecks protecting this quantity. The wager: Houston -6
