NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic pose onstage throughout the UFC 309 press … [+] convention at The Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
Tonight’s UFC 309 battle card encompasses a heavyweight title battle as the primary occasion. In that matchup, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones seems to defend his title for the primary time. His opponent on Saturday evening in Madison Sq. Backyard is former two-time UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic. We take a look at the betting odds, line motion, prediction, picks and prop bets for the IFC 309 PPV card.
The UFC 309 PPV battle card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.
Within the night’s co-main occasion, former UFC light-weight champion Charles Oliveira faces Michael Chandler in a rematch of their 2021 assembly. Oliveira received that contest by way of TKO within the second spherical to say the vacant UFC 155-pound title.
Additionally on the UFC 309 PPV battle card is a middleweight matchup between the rising Bo Nickal and UFC veteran Paul Craig.
Under, we take a look at the betting odds, line motion, potential prop bets, battle picks, predictions, and extra for tomorrow evening’s UFC 309 battle card.
UFC 309 Essential Occasion: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic face off throughout the UFC 309 press … [+] convention at The Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
When the UFC 309 betting traces have been first introduced by BetMGM, Jon Jones was a -650 favourite over Stipe Miocic, who got here in at +475. Jones has held regular at -650, whereas the previous champion is the +450 betting favourite as battle evening nears.
With the chances being so one-sided, Miocic is an efficient worth wager. As such 83 % of the UFC 309 important occasion bets have are available on the previous champ, whereas 58 % of the deal with is on Miocic as properly.
The betting pick for this battle is for Jones to win by way of resolution, however don’t draw back from going the place there may be a variety of worth, and that’s Miocic by way of knockout.
UFC 309 Co-Essential Occasion: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler face off throughout the UFC 309 … [+] press convention at The Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
The opening odds for the light-weight co-main occasion noticed Oliveira at -250 and Chandler at +200. There was slight motion in that betting line. As we speak, the ex-UFC champion is -275, whereas Chandler is listed at +210.
Oliveira has picked up 79 % of the bets and 58 % of the cash forward of Saturday evening.
The UFC 309 co-main event betting pick is for Oliveira to win by way of submission.
UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Bo Nickal and Paul Craig face off throughout the UFC 309 press … [+] convention at The Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
As has been the case in all of his UFC fights, Bo Nickal opened as a large betting favourite, coming in at -1000 over the +650 Paul Craig. Nickal has solely turn out to be a extra substantial favourite. As we speak, the previous Penn State wrestler is listed at -1400 over Craig, who’s the +800 betting underdog.
Craig has garnered 84 % of the bets forward of this matchup, whereas Nickal has picked up 58 % of the deal with.
The betting pick is for Nickal to win by way of knockout.
UFC 309: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 15: Karine Silva of Brazil poses on the size throughout the UFC 309 … [+] official weigh-in on the New York Hilton Midtown on November 15, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
The bout between Viviane Araujo and Karine Silva is a vital matchup for the UFC ladies’s flyweight division. When betting traces have been first revealed for this contest, Araujo was the +225 underdog to the -275 Silva. As we speak, Silva is listed at -300 and Araujo at +240.
Araujo, who has been with the UFC longer, has 65 % of the bets and 66 % of the cash driving on her.
The betting pick is for Silva to win by way of resolution.
UFC 309: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 15: Mauricio Ruffy of Brazil poses on the size throughout the UFC 309 … [+] official weigh-in on the New York Hilton Midtown on November 15, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
This catchweight battle was a late addition to the UFC 309 battle card. The bout got here collectively after Charlie Campbell withdrew from his scheduled matchup in opposition to Mauricio Ruffy. James Llontop agreed to the battle in late October.
Ruffy was the -750 betting favourite when the battle was first introduced. As we speak he’s listed at -900. Llontop opened at +525. He’s now at +600.
Llontop has 70 of the bets on him, nevertheless, Ruffy has picked up 96 % of the deal with.
The betting choose is Ruffy to win by way of knockout.
UFC 309 Most Guess Prop Bets
Based on BetMGM, the next are essentially the most wager prop bets for the UFC 309 battle card:
Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO or DQ +700
Jon Jones by KO/TKO or DQ +100
Jon Jones by Submission +200
Paul Craig by Submission +1000
Jon Jones in spherical 2 +400
UFC 309 Most Guess Fights
Based on BetMGM, the next are essentially the most wager fights on the UFC 309 card.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Oban Elliot vs. Bassil Hafez
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
UFC 309 Combat Card Preview
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones seems on throughout the UFC 309 press convention at The … [+] Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) captured the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane. The UFC heavyweight title was left vacant when Francis Ngannou departed the promotion as a free agent to signal with the PFL in early 2023.
The UFC initially booked Jones vs. Miocic for UFC 295. UFC CEO Dana White announced that fight in July 2023, saying on the time, “That is the battle that Jon Jones needed. It’s the battle that Stipe needed. It’s a legacy battle for each of those guys.”
The Jones vs. Miocic battle fell aside when Jones suffered a torn pectoral muscle in coaching. With Jones off the cardboard, the UFC opted to guide an interim title battle between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall won that bout, and the interim title, with a 69-second knockout.
Miocic (20-4) has not stepped into the Octagon since he misplaced the title to Ngannou by knockout in March 2021.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Charles Oliveira speaks throughout the UFC 309 press convention at … [+] The Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Charles Oliveira (34-10-0-1) has been combating with the UFC since 2010. He received the vacant light-weight title together with his win over Chandler and defended the title as soon as, beating Dustin Poirier. He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title protection, however Oliveira missed weight for that battle, which he received by submission, shedding the title on the size.
Oliveira had an opportunity to regain the belt in October 2022, however Islam Makhachev submitted him and claimed the vacant belt. Since that loss, Oliveira is 1-1, beating Beneil Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and shedding to Arman Tsarukyan by way of cut up resolution in April of this 12 months.
Oliveira is the No. 2 fighter within the official UFC lightweight rankings.
Michael Chandler (23-8) had been ready for a matchup with Conor McGregor. After a prolonged delay, that battle was booked for UFC 303 in June. Nonetheless, a damaged toe throughout coaching camp prevented McGregor from competing.
Chandler final fought in November 2022 when he misplaced to former interim UFC light-weight champion Dustin Poirier. Chandler signed with the UFC as a free agent in 2020. He made his UC debut in January 2021 with a knockout win over Dan Hooker.
Oliveira and Chandler met in the primary occasion of UFC 262 in Could 2021. Oliveira received that contest by way of second-round TKO, claiming the vacant UFC 155-pound title within the course of.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 14: Bo Nickal seems on throughout the UFC 309 press convention at The … [+] Theater at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 14, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Bo Nickal (6-0) , who picked up a UFC contract after one battle on a Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Collection in 2022, is 3-0 within the UFC with three submission wins. Nickal has not gone previous the second spherical in any of his professional bouts, and earlier than his UFC 300 matchup in opposition to Cody Brundage, he had not fought previous the two:54 mark of the primary spherical.
Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. Issues haven’t gone properly for Craig over the previous two years. He’s 1-4 over that point, with a TKO victory over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen, and Caio Borralho. His most up-to-date outing was a knockout loss to Borralho in Could.
Nickal has been a monster betting favourite in all his UFC outings. In his promotional debut, Nickal was a -2500 favourite over Jamie Pickett. His subsequent battle, in opposition to late alternative Val Woodburn, Nickal got here in at -2200. In Nickal’s most up-to-date outing, he was a -1800 favourite over Brundage.
Nickal was a three-time NCAA Division I nationwide champion and a three-time Massive Ten Convention champion for head coach Cael Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal took second within the 2016 NCAA finals, shedding to Myles Martin of Ohio State. Nickal beat Martin within the 2018 finals. Nickal had a profession document of 131-5 with Penn State. He went 61-0 in his remaining two years.
UFC 309 takes place at Madison Sq. Backyard on November 16.
