UFC 285: Fast picks and prognostications

The principle card kicks off with a middleweight attraction between Bo Nickal and Jamie Pickett.

Regardless of Nickal solely having three professional fights to his identify, the hype behind the three-time Division 1 nationwide champion has earned him one more alternative to showcase his expertise.

Each males battle out of the southpaw stance, however Pickett is the one one with expertise reverse UFC-level lefties (at present standing at 0-4).

Despite the fact that I don’t wish to low cost the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt in Pickett, his defensive tendencies and propensity to turtle will doubtless get him rag-dolled and submitted by Nickal within the first spherical.

Filling out the primary card is a enjoyable light-weight affair between Mateusz Gamrot and Jailin Turner.

Regardless of stepping in on roughly two weeks’ discover, Gamrot’s constant wrestling assaults seem to have earned him the standing of the betting favourite reverse Turner.

Though I’ve been leaning towards Gamrot all week, I can’t shake the picture of Turner countering his jabs and kicking him from Soar Road.

Couple that with the truth that Gamrot has solely misplaced to southpaws or when taking fights on brief discover, and I’ll reluctantly take Turner to attain the upset through a second-round stoppage.

Serving as a stable addition to the cardboard is a possible welterweight struggle between Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Regardless of the betting line above being large for some, I can perceive the unfold given the talents of Rakhmonov.

Not solely does he garner hype as an undefeated fighter, however Rakhmonov seems to be an unflinching offensive machine with impeccable proprioception and accuracy in tow.

Add in the truth that Neal missed weight for this battle, and I’ll decide Rakhmonov to prompt a end from a spinning physique kick come the second spherical.

The co-main includes a flyweight title battle between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso.

As said in my co-main event breakdown, I believe that southpaw kickers may very well be a nasty stylistic match for Grasso (who’s formally 0-1 reverse UFC-level lefties).

Until Shevchenko will get over-aggressive when going for takedowns and offers her again, then I see the sitting champion retaining her title by forcing a stoppage within the second spherical from the crucifix place.

The principle occasion for UFC 285 options the return of Jon Jones, who’s shifting as much as heavyweight to problem Ciryl Gane for the group’s vacant title.

I usually reference Makhachev in relation to wrist controls, however Jon Jones has been popularizing hand preventing for a while.

Hand traps to elbows, overhooks that parlay into wrist-feeds (which setup elbows, knees and shoulder strikes), defensive wrist pins that open up takedowns: pic.twitter.com/bBgcDxP5Jm

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 1, 2023

There are such a lot of angles to cowl for this battle, as I did my finest to put out every thing from stylistic context to statistics in my in-depth breakdown.

Though it could be a lot simpler to select Jones to wrestle and name it a day, I don’t know the way a lot I can depend on him to persistently do this at this stage of his profession. I received’t be shocked to see Jones wrestle and presumably win early, however there are in the end too many unknowns to confidently decide him at this weight class in opposition to an athletic southpaw who can counter kicks.

🪡: #TheSouthpawReport for #UFC285 (will add to this thread because the week goes on)

• Ciryl Gane is listed as orthodox however he primarily fights southpaw with a dynamic rear kick that variates targets. Jon Jones is formally 5-0 reverse UFC SPs, however kicks from SP have had success: pic.twitter.com/TkKAeVmIbH

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 1, 2023

Whether or not it stems from a physique kick or a leg damage, I’ll take a flier on Gane to outlive the early grappling scares and discover a end by spherical 4.

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