The return of the SuperSonics, convention realignment and different massive NBA enlargement questions

In December 2020, with no followers in arenas and contours of credit score and loans to homeowners rising, NBA commissioner Adam Silver mentioned the league was taking a fresh look at the idea of expanding after almost twenty years.

Within the three-plus years since he floated the idea, a complete trade has developed as nice anticipation has constructed. Potential possession teams have been quietly elevating cash. Two corporations have introduced deliberate new arenas in Las Vegas. LeBron James has openly campaigned for Silver to award him a team. All ready for a “go” from the league.

On the Finals in June, Silver additional stoked the enlargement flames. He mentioned that after getting a brand new collective bargaining deal accomplished with the gamers, which occurred final 12 months, and securing a brand new nationwide TV rights deal, which was finalized in July, expansion would be on the agenda.

On the annual fall board of governors assembly final week in New York, Silver offered an replace and mentioned enlargement can be mentioned by the league “at some point this season,” although not simply but.

So when? The place? Who? Why? How?

NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst share all the newest intel from conversations with sources in and across the NBA on how this difficult, league-altering course of might play out.

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When might the NBA even have a brand new staff or groups?

It is a fluid and unsure course of. The NBA final introduced enlargement in 2002, and the Charlotte Bobcats began play in October 2004. However that turnaround is not a good comparability as a result of the league did not contemplate different cities and was changing a relocated staff (the Hornets moved to New Orleans that 12 months), which allowed for a fast turnaround.

With Silver not but absolutely committing to increasing and conserving the timeline for even starting the method undefined, each side — league sources and people who find themselves engaged on forming bidding teams — are concentrating on the 2027-28 season. Though beginning in 2026-27 is not unimaginable, it has grow to be extra unrealistic.

Which may seem to be a very long time, particularly for followers in cities ready for a staff. However the course of can have a number of phases: deciding whether or not to develop, selecting cities, deciding on possession teams in what might be an expansive bidding course of, and permitting for the brand new staff or groups to construct up infrastructure.

Why develop now?

This can be a query the league’s governors have been informally debating over the previous a number of years and are doubtless headed to formally debating within the close to future.

The query of enlargement is in the end an financial one. The central subject is whether or not bringing in new groups and diluting the shares of collective income, particularly the media rights, is definitely worth the short- and long-term rewards.

Presently all NBA groups personal 3.3% of the league and share the billions in income accordingly. Spreading that over 32 groups barely reduces the sharing, however calculated over many years, these proportion factors imply massive sums.

Alternatively, the enlargement price — the worth the brand new possession teams pay on to the present homeowners for the rights to their new groups — might web groups an enormous short-term windfall, and increasing additionally might improve the league’s footprint and total fan base, which has probably constructive long-term results.

So will it occur?

Two key issues have maybe tipped the scales towards enlargement. First, franchise valuations are in an explosion cycle. The Minnesota Timberwolves have been offered in 2021 for a $1.5 billion valuation (though that sale is still pending). Within the three years since, three groups have offered for greater than $3 billion, together with the 2023 sale of the Phoenix Suns for $4 billion.

Presently the Boston Celtics are on the market, and there are indications they may produce the best value ever for an NBA staff, a document at the moment held by Mat Ishbia’s buy of the Suns. That might even additional reset the market, and that may be a contributing issue within the NBA’s resolution to go slower on enlargement and look forward to that sale to occur, league sources mentioned.

At these costs, a pair of latest enlargement groups might web the league north of $10 billion mixed — that means each staff would obtain a verify for over $300 million as the brand new groups come into the league. That’s naturally an attractive proposition and means above what Silver would’ve anticipated when he modified his stance on enlargement again in 2020.

Relying on when a possible bidding course of takes place and variables like the worldwide financial system, it is attainable forecasting $10 billion for the 2 groups might even be conservative.

Additionally, with the NBA agreeing to a new TV deal over the summer season for $76 billion over the following 11 years, any worries over mildly diluting shared revenue streams has been decreased. Nevertheless, that does not imply it is a assured factor to occur. There are at the least some homeowners who’re skeptical of whether or not it makes monetary sense in the long run to develop.

Would enlargement charges have any impression on the wage cap?

No. The enlargement charges are paid on to the prevailing homeowners — a part of what makes the thought of enlargement probably interesting to them.

Do the gamers have any say?

The choice on whether or not to develop comes all the way down to the NBA’s board of governors, which must vote so as to add two members to its group. Whereas there are issues the Nationwide Basketball Gamers Affiliation has a say in — equivalent to, for instance, probably making the schedule shorter — including groups will not be considered one of them.

That mentioned, the thought of including one other 30 jobs (36 when embody two-way contracts) is one the union can be very a lot in favor of, sources mentioned.

Which cities would get groups?

Seattle and Las Vegas have been thought of front-runners for a while. Nevertheless it shouldn’t be assumed the NBA will certainly choose them.

Why Seattle?

Seattle has been the largest market with out an NBA staff because the SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma Metropolis in 2008 and has grow to be extra enticing from a professional sports activities standpoint within the interim due to a tech growth led by the league’s latest broadcast associate, Amazon.

For years, the difficulty with the NBA’s return to Seattle was the dearth of a substitute for KeyArena, deemed insufficient by the league as a part of the Sonics’ transfer. That modified in 2021 when the renovated Local weather Pledge Area opened as the house of the enlargement NHL Kraken and WNBA Storm.

Regardless of the 16 years and counting the Sonics have been gone, they continue to be immensely fashionable as followers who grew up on the groups led by Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp that reached the 1996 NBA Finals have had households of their very own. A brand new fan-led group, Seattle NBA Fans, is launching with an occasion subsequent week to showcase town’s potential to help Sonics 2.0.

Sin Metropolis has grow to be the NBA’s unofficial thirty first metropolis over the previous technology, with the annual Las Vegas summer season league rising over the previous decade into the NBA’s model of Comedian-Con, an enormous occasion that brings tons of of hundreds of followers every July. And, on prime of that, Vegas is now the annual host of the championship rounds of the league’s newly created Emirates NBA Cup (previously simply referred to as the in-season event).

It is also a metropolis that has seen an explosion in reputation from a sports activities standpoint in recent times, with the Raiders arriving from Oakland, the Aces coming from San Antonio, the Golden Knights getting into the NHL as an enlargement staff and, assuming John Fisher can pull it off, the Athletics (finally) coming from Oakland. Consequently, town is a pure match as a possible second entry alongside Seattle.

Are there different cities that might attempt to get a staff?

The widespread perception amongst league and staff sources that we’ve got talked to is that Seattle and Las Vegas are the logical touchdown factors for a pair of latest enlargement groups. However that does not imply there could not be some twists and turns within the course of.

If there may be one other metropolis to leap into the combination, the probably one to take action is Mexico Metropolis. Probably the most populous metropolis in North America, the capital of Mexico has been a constant host of NBA regular-season video games since 1992, and the 33 video games performed there since then are probably the most wherever exterior of the USA and Canada. Mexico Metropolis is dwelling to the G League’s Capitanes and would offer the league with a gap into the Latin and South American markets in addition to one other worldwide metropolis. Nevertheless, there are plenty of logistical hurdles to beat for an NBA staff to exist there full time.

Cities equivalent to Montreal and Vancouver, British Columbia, have been raised as potentialities up to now, together with Kansas Metropolis, Missouri, and Louisville, Kentucky, each of which have already got NBA-caliber arenas. Different cities that might probably be dwelling to groups, equivalent to San Jose, California, and Austin, Texas, run into the issue of bumping up in opposition to different groups — in San Jose’s case the Golden State Warriors, and in Austin’s the San Antonio Spurs, who already play regular-season video games there.

Who’re potential homeowners in Seattle?

The Kraken’s possession group, led by proprietor Samantha Holloway and her father (founding proprietor David Bonderman), has been making ready for a bid. That group options sturdy NBA ties. Bonderman has been a member of the Celtics’ possession group since their 2002 sale, whereas Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and the sons of former Sonics proprietor Barry Ackerley are additionally a part of Kraken possession.

In a Might letter to Kraken season-ticket holders, Holloway shared that the group was forming “a mother or father model that may umbrella the Kraken model and put together for different massive alternatives.” The Kraken are on monitor to formally make that announcement of a mother or father firm alongside the traces of Vulcan Sports activities (proprietor of the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks) within the close to future. Moreover, they’ve used longtime NBA govt and Seattle native Rick Welts as an adviser, per sources. Most not too long ago president of the Golden State Warriors, Welts started his Corridor of Fame profession with the Sonics, beginning as a ball boy.

Chris Hansen, chief of a bunch whose bid to buy the Sacramento Kings in 2013 and transfer them to Seattle was voted down by the league’s board of governors, will not be anticipated to move a bid for an enlargement staff, per sources. Hansen, who has highlighted the return of the Sonics as the first aim of his efforts, stays prepared to help any profitable Seattle bidder.

Might a Seattle staff be the SuperSonics? Would they preserve that franchise’s pre-2008 historical past?

Briefly: sure and sure.

The deal between Thunder possession and town of Seattle resolving a lawsuit over the staff’s enviornment lease and permitting the transfer to Oklahoma Metropolis stipulated that the title SuperSonics and all related logos, colours and trademark can be transferred to the proprietor of a brand new NBA staff authorized to play at a renovated KeyArena without charge.

That settlement laid out the phrases of shared possession of Sonics historical past, together with the staff’s 1979 championship trophy and retired jerseys. Formally, the NBA combines the historical past of the 2 groups. For instance, the league acknowledges Payton as Oklahoma Metropolis’s profession chief in video games performed.

The Thunder, nevertheless, don’t dangle any banners for the SuperSonics in Oklahoma Metropolis, they usually do not spotlight any Seattle stats of their media information — itemizing, for instance, Russell Westbrook because the staff’s profession assists chief slightly than Payton.

Sources mentioned that if a staff have been to return to Seattle, the Thunder would cede the Seattle historical past again to the SuperSonics — simply because the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets reclaimed the Charlotte-era historical past of the New Orleans Pelicans when Charlotte switched from being the Bobcats to the Hornets in 2014.

Who’re the potential homeowners in Las Vegas?

There’s one very apparent title right here: LeBron James.

For the higher a part of a decade, James has been clear about his need to hitch Michael Jordan as all-time nice turned staff governor and grow to be a real shareholder within the NBA. James’ off-court funding selections, together with taking an fairness place with Boston Celtics, Pittsburgh Penguins and Liverpool FC possession group Fenway Sports activities, have been made with this in thoughts.

James has continued to develop relationships with deep-pocketed sports activities traders equivalent to John Henry and Gerry Cardinale, who might be companions in making a bid for an enlargement staff. Final 12 months, he traveled to Saudi Arabia and met with Badr bin Abdullah Al Saud, a member of the royal household and the dominion’s minister of tradition. In recent times, the Saudis have been investing in Western sport. In 2022, the NBA cleared the best way for sovereign wealth funds to take a position as much as 20% in groups.

Whether or not taking part in in exhibition video games in Vegas, profitable MVP of the first-ever NBA Cup within the metropolis or taking part in there with Group USA, James has regularly spoken of his need to personal an enlargement staff there.

The NBA has a rule that energetic gamers can not have an possession stake in a staff. This got here up in 2001, when Jordan got here out of retirement and was pressured to surrender his share of the Washington Wizards. League sources mentioned that as a result of the enlargement course of hasn’t began but, there have not been concrete discussions over the foundations that may govern it, together with this one.

That mentioned, if the following enlargement franchises have been to begin play within the 2027-28 season, that does line up properly with the top of James’ present contract with the Lakers, which runs by means of the 2026-27 season.

Are there different potential homeowners within the combine in Las Vegas?

Former Milwaukee Bucks proprietor Marc Lasry is placing collectively a bunch to bid on a possible Las Vegas enlargement staff, sources mentioned — a bunch that features WNBA legend Candace Parker, amongst others. There are different teams additionally exploring the chance in each Las Vegas and Seattle, sources mentioned, though till the NBA really ideas off the method and provides readability on the worth of franchises, there aren’t more likely to be any formal bulletins of anybody’s potential curiosity.

If two groups are added within the West, what is going to occur to the conferences?

Presuming the 2 new groups are awarded to Seattle and Las Vegas, they’d each land within the Western Convention. That might imply there can be 15 groups within the East and 17 groups within the West, necessitating one shifting from West to East to steadiness issues out.

This may doubtless come all the way down to a choice amongst three groups: the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies. The Pelicans and Grizzlies are the easternmost groups within the Western Convention, however additionally they are brief flights from a number of Western Convention opponents (one another, all three Texas groups and the Thunder).

Minnesota, in the meantime, is slightly farther west however is much extra geographically remoted. The Timberwolves’ closest Western Convention opponent, by air miles, is the Denver Nuggets (680 miles). By comparability, Minnesota has 5 East cities (Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit and Cleveland) which are shorter journeys than that, plus a sixth (Toronto) that’s the very same distance.

It might doubtless be a protracted struggle to find out who would transfer east, however these details appear to make Minnesota probably the most logical selection.

What impression might enlargement have on the NBA playoff format? What in regards to the NBA Cup?

So far as the playoffs go, bumping as much as 32 groups should not change something. Every convention would doubtless add another staff, and the identical guidelines would make sense to hold over to a post-expansion world. Ten groups would qualify for the postseason, six instantly and 4 into the play-in event. Six groups, slightly than 5 now, would go on to the lottery.

Going as much as 32 groups, nevertheless, would probably lead to constructive adjustments for the Emirates NBA Cup. Presently, the league splits the event’s group stage into six teams of 5 — that means it may well’t have each staff play on the ultimate day of group play as a result of there are odd numbers of groups in every group.

A 32-team pool to tug from would enable the NBA to reflect the 32-team World Cup format: eight teams of 4 groups, every of which might play one another as soon as (or twice, relying on how lengthy the league wish to have the group stage play out). Then, the NBA might have 16 groups advance to the knockout portion of the event, taking the highest two groups from every group (because the World Cup does) or it might have every group winner advance and have the identical quarterfinal-semifinal-final format it does now.

Coming Wednesday: A proof of the enlargement draft course of, plus the Hoop Collective’s mock enlargement draft.