Mar 12, 2023
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Mike TannenbaumESPN
Whereas there are at all times big names within the NFL free agency pool who will earn the big-money deals, a few of the finest signings are the blokes who groups can sign at value. After I was an NFL govt with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, I at all times went into March with a number of gamers I completely wished to signal. And that was very true once I felt a free agent would outperform the contract to which we had been signing him. These savvy strikes can typically be extra impactful than the “splash” signings in a wage cap restricted league.
So for a second year in a row, I am placing on my GM hat and breaking down 5 present free brokers I might be concentrating on to signal this week if I had been working a workforce. These are gamers who I imagine can assist any roster — even when a few of them include dangers. Listed below are 5 names I might pursue, the offers I might supply them and why I feel every could be well worth the cash.
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Jamel Dean, CB
The deal I might supply: 4 years, $72 million ($40 million assured)
Dean remains to be 26 years outdated and has 57 video games of expertise over his four-year profession. At 6-foot-1 and 206 kilos, the 2019 third-round select of Auburn has nice dimension for a cornerback and has proved each sturdy and productive. Dean was stable but once more final season, hauling in two interceptions and breaking apart eight passes. He has averaged greater than 10 move breakups per season over his profession.
As for his potential contract, I might have a look at Xavien Howard‘s recent extension as a tough mannequin, with an $18 million per-year breakdown. Playmaking cornerbacks are beneficial, and there aren’t many available on the market who’re nonetheless younger, can keep wholesome and have a deep resume of on-ball manufacturing.
If I had been the Houston Texans, I might be taking a detailed have a look at Dean. They may use one other bodily nook — even after drafting Derek Stingley Jr. final yr — in DeMeco Ryans’ new scheme, and Dean could be a great match.
Mike Gesicki, TE
The deal I might supply: 5 years, $60 million ($28.5 million assured)
Free company and the upcoming draft are loaded with tight ends, however I feel Gesicki brings uncommon worth. In Miami’s new scheme below coach Mike McDaniel, Gesicki dipped from 73 receptions on 110 targets in 2021 to simply 32 catches on 53 targets final season. He averaged a goal on over 21% of his routes in each 2020 and 2021, however barely broke 15% in 2022. So he strikes me as somebody who wants a change of surroundings, particularly since he’s solely 27 years outdated. Gesicki nonetheless scored 5 instances final season, and he is a transparent mismatch for defenses at 6-6 and 247 kilos. That exhibits up within the pink zone.
If I had been working a workforce with a younger growing quarterback — take into account the Chicago Bears — it is a no-brainer. I count on he’d are available in round $12 million per season, which is according to Hunter Henry‘s deal in New England. That might find yourself nice worth, given his upside, traits and age.
I will rapidly toss out one other tight finish that I might kick the tires on: Dalton Schultz. He’ll get extra consideration and in the end earn extra money, although, seemingly checking in round $14 million per season.
Jessie Bates III, S
The deal I might supply: 5 years, $90 million ($40 million assured)
Bates, 26, has 477 tackles, 14 interceptions and 43 move breakups over 5 seasons — and 4 of these interceptions got here in 2022. In keeping with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, his minus-8.7% completion proportion above expectation on focused throws final season ranked sixth-best amongst safeties with no less than 400 protection snaps. Bates can cease the run, too. He has no less than 70 tackles in all 5 seasons, and he has three campaigns with 100-plus.
He’s coming off the franchise tag, and given his age and manufacturing, I might count on Bates to make $18 million per yr — much like the deal I steered for Dean. He ought to receives a commission in the identical vary of Derwin James Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Detroit Lions are a workforce that makes lots of sense. Think about what Bates might do there with defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn transferring him across the protection.
Charles Omenihu, DE
The deal I might supply: Two years, $20 million ($12 million assured)
The San Francisco 49ers acquired Omenihu from the Texans on the 2021 commerce deadline for a sixth-round choose, they usually acquired nice worth within the deal. Omenihu ranked simply outdoors the highest 25 in move rush win price final season (16.5%, twenty sixth), and he was third on the workforce in sacks with 4.5.
He doesn’t flip 26 till proper earlier than the 2023 season, so with veterans like Frank Clark, Robert Quinn and Marcus Davenport dominating the headlines, Omenihu might be a steal for a workforce this offseason. I am taking a look at Sam Hubbard as a comp for a contract, which might be actually good worth. A workforce just like the Atlanta Falcons could be a great touchdown spot for Omenihu, too. Any workforce contemplating him will in fact need to do its homework. He was arrested on suspicion of misdemeanor domestic violence in January through the Niners’ playoff run.
I discussed Davenport, and in the event you might signal him round $17 million per yr, he’d be well worth the look. However provided that Davenport has struggled to remain wholesome, Omenihu is the higher worth.
Carson Wentz, QB
The deal I might supply: One yr, $1.165 million (absolutely assured)
When you find yourself working a workforce, you have to search for economically environment friendly alternatives. Signing Wentz for the league minimal to function a No. 2 QB might be a type of.
Sure, I do know Wentz completed thirtieth out of 31 certified quarterbacks in Complete QBR final season (33.0), throwing 11 landing passes and 9 interceptions. And sure, I do know he was benched after which in the end cut after the season, ending his tenure along with his third workforce in three seasons. However whereas we do not know if Wentz might ever be a high-performance quarterback once more, signing him for the minimal presents completely no draw back. Give him a recent begin as a backup, and if he is capable of get his recreation even considerably near what it was in 2017-2019, then it is a steal. If not, the chance is inconsequential. You need to take a bunch of swings at QB on this league, however that is one that does not impression the underside line a lot if it misses.
Your best-case state of affairs is Wentz sitting for a yr and probably turning into the subsequent turnaround story, much like what Geno Smith did in Seattle. That’s big-time upside on a miniscule deal. I like the match of Wentz with a workforce just like the Kansas City Chiefs; they want a backup after Chad Henne retired, and he’d get to work below coach Andy Reid to attempt to resurrect his profession.
