The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Baltimore to face their division rivals, who’re on a tear and taking part in nice soccer. Pittsburgh has spiraled, dropping their final 4 video games towards high quality opponents together with the Ravens in Week 16 (34-17), clearly on the lookout for a greater end result of their third assembly.
Listed here are my stat outlooks for the prior two video games in hopes of righting the ship.
Let’s dive in.
QUARTERBACKS – QB Lamar Jackson is on the prime of the large challenges Baltimore presents. He set spectacular passing stat-lines this season, and right here’s that alongside together with his numbers within the Steelers matchups:
JACKSON
2024: 474 makes an attempt (sixteenth/40, min. 200 dropbacks), 4,172 cross yards (sixth), 41 TDs (T-second), 4 INTs (T-third).
Week 11: 33 makes an attempt (T-Eleventh), 207 yards (twenty first), 1 TD, 1 INT.
Week 16: 23 makes an attempt (Thirtieth), 207 yards (Twenty second), 3 TD, 1 INT.
Far fewer makes an attempt for a similar variety of yards and triple the touchdowns of their Week 16 victory, in comparison with the Steelers popping out on prime in Week 11. One other huge distinction was completion share, with a lowly 48.5-percent mark the primary matchup, 65.2-percent in Week 16, and 66.7-percent on the yr (twelfth).
Right here is the typical accomplished and meant air yards, which stand out from Week 16:
Jackson achieved nice ends in these phrases, with a whopping 9.6 CAY that was better of Week 16, and a 9.8 IAY that was third-most. His air yard differential additionally was tops of the week, which means he was attacking down the sphere with total success.
As compared, Steelers QB Russell Wilson had a 6.7 CAY (fifth), and seven.3 IAY (14th). Not dangerous both, and right here was his stat-line: 33 makes an attempt (nineteenth), 217 yards (nineteenth), 2 TD, 1 INT. Has been sufficient previously, however not when Jackson posts his greatest efficiency thus far on his division rival.
Wilson did even much less within the Week 11 win: 23 completions, 205 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. So, Wilson can clearly play higher, however the Steelers really want to step up and play complimentary soccer. That can probably be wanted towards Baltimore’s offense and a protection that’s taking part in higher, as my latest articles illustrate:
2024 regular season explosive plays
Additionally wished to incorporate my passing charts articles for the Ravens matchups:
Steelers passing charts Week 11
Steelers passing charts Week 16
An enormous a part of Baltimore’s id is the run sport, on each side of the ball. Jackson led QBs with 915 speeding yards, and twentieth league-wide, higher than a number of working backs. Right here’s his speeding towards Pittsburgh:
Week 11: 46 rush yards (fifth amongst QBs).
Week 16: 22 rush yards (twentieth).
Contemplating the Ravens had 220 group speeding yards of their Week 16 win, in comparison with 124 in Week 11, we see the latter wasn’t on the hand of Jackson.
RUNNING BACKS – The massive distinction was Derrick Henry:
Week 11: 13 makes an attempt, 65 rush yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble turnover.
Week 16: 24 makes an attempt, 162 yards, 0 TD, 0 FUM.
Way more makes an attempt and greater than doubling his yardage final assembly. Impactful regardless of no rush touchdowns, however the huge story of Week 11 was a uncommon fumble turnover that Pittsburgh acquired on him early. Baltimore discovered their lesson and can absolutely lean on him once more.
The Steelers protection performing nearer to their first matchup will clearly be key on top-of-the-line RBs within the league:
2024: Henry – 325 makes an attempt (second), 1,921 yards (second), 16 TDs (T-first).
Forcing missed tackles, and choosing up first downs was one other spotlight of Henry’s Week 16:
Henry led the week with most missed tackles pressured and tied for second in first downs. These had been huge causes that Baltimore gained, re-emphasizing my complementary soccer remark earlier and what Pittsburgh’s protection should do higher.
Steelers S DeShon Elliott is without doubt one of the greatest tacklers for Pittsburgh and didn’t play within the final matchup. That’s large, and it have to be a stronger group effort and one of many largest keys in hopeful victory.
Additionally they have a second-ranked speeding success charge, aiding their capability to increase drives, and performs effectively to their robust situational soccer on offense: third down (third) and NFL’s greatest purple zone landing charge. Huge the explanation why they’re profitable, and a declining Steelers run protection (twenty ninth post-bye) should step as much as earlier in 2024, after they had been a prime three unit.
Steelers RB Stats:
Harris – 2024: 263 makes an attempt (seventh), 1,043 yards (14th), 6 TDs (T-Twenty second). Week 11: 18 makes an attempt, 63 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 9 makes an attempt, 42 yards, 0 TDs.
Warren – 2024: 120 makes an attempt, 511 yards, 1 TD. Week 11: 9 makes an attempt, 41 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 12 makes an attempt, 48 yards, 0 TDs, 1 FUM.
We see that Harris was prime 10 in carries and led alternatives in Week 11, with that flipping within the final assembly. Will probably be fascinating to see the splits on this sport, as Warren has gotten extra alternative in latest weeks, however much less so final sport.
Baltimore restricted the run sport to 117 yards in Week 16 and 122 in Week 11. Final sport, Warren had six pressured missed tackles and 4 first downs regardless of the Ravens robust unit, however they rallied and corralled yardage total. He additionally had a fumble, fortunately retained. Wilson had one which was not, resulting in a Ravens TD drive.
Caring for the ball is paramount to Pittsburgh’s success. They’ve on the proper facet of the turnover margin for the yr, however being cleaner on offense would help a extra dominant unfold to hopefully capitalize on greater than Week 16.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Clearly key to any matchup.
Listed here are PFF blocking grades for Week 16:
General, gamers fared greatest in run blocking. Significantly Baltimore, with some good cross blocking as Steeler G Isaac Seumalo led these grades. G Mason McCormick had the bottom particular person grade, an abysmal 16.6 PBLK.
Allowed 5 pressures, three hurries, and two sacks. He’s questionable after struggling a damaged hand. Who performs RG, probably Spencer Anderson if McCormick can’t go, and a powerful collective day from the unit could be nice to see after trending negatively to finish 2024.
Ravens OL:
LT Ronnie Stanley: 43.6 RBLK (sixty fifth/69), 52.4 PBLK (forty ninth)
LG Patrick Mekari: 45.2 RBLK (fifty fifth/60), 74.0 PBLK (Twenty fourth)
C Tyler Linderbaum: 74.9 RBLK (seventh/32), 57.0 PBLK (twentieth)
RG Daniel Faalele: 66.3 RBLK (twenty sixth/60), 55.0 PBLK (forty fourth)
RT Roger Rosengarten: 75.5 RBLK (twelfth/69), 68.9 PBLK (thirty third)
The left facet of their line had been worse as run blockers, together with Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith giving Stanley suits with a team-high 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and their lone sack. Emphasizes his huge sport, and hopefully the d-line present out extra, significantly star T.J. Watt who has been restricted (to his requirements) in each common season matchups.
Rosengarten deserves credit score, together with the assistance he will get. Hoping Watt is saving one of the best for final, hungry to get his first playoff win. Linderbaum was stable run blocking on the inside, whereas the remainder of the grades had been common to beneath. Really want extra playmaking, hopefully through sacks and turnovers.
Steelers anticipated OL:
LT Dan Moore: 59.1 RBLK (fiftieth/69), 65.6 PBLK (thirty seventh)
LG Isaac Seumalo: 69.6 RBLK (twentieth/60), 81.9 PBLK (tenth)
C Zach Frazier: 68.1 RBLK (Eleventh/32), 63.7 PBLK (Seventeenth)
RG Mason McCormick (questionable-hand): 68.3 RBLK (Twenty second/60), 16.6 PBLK (57th)
RT Broderick Jones: 51.9 RBLK (sixtieth/69), 65.1 PBLK (thirty eighth)
Frazier tops the run block grades, as he’s performed many of the yr. The guards graded effectively, however we see the primary run block woes got here from the tackles. They did have higher cross block grades, however Jones allowed two sacks, and Moore has allowed two sacks in every of the final two video games. Good inside PBLK marks, with the clear exception being McCormick, and if he goes seeing if that corrects or if the harm impacts his play.
TIGHT ENDS – Baltimore has two scary skills in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Doubtless. That they had good seasons, and listed below are their stats:
Andrews – 2024: 69 targets (Seventeenth), 55 catches (14th), 673 yards (ninth), 11 TDs (1st). Week 11: 3 targets, 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 6 targets, 4 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD.
Doubtless – 2024: 56 targets (Twenty seventh), 42 catches (T-Twenty seventh), 477 yards (twenty third), 6 TDs (Eighth). Week 11: 5 targets, 4 catches, 75 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD.
Touchdowns actually stick out, with two TEs within the prime 10, and Andrews main the NFL this season. Pittsburgh discovered that painful lesson, coping with miscommunications and permitting a TD every to them. Extensive open at that,and easily can’t occur once more. How the protection adjusts/executes is essential.
Steeler Pat Freiermuth: 2024: 74 targets (14th), 65 catches (T-Eighth), 653 yards (twelfth), 7 TDs (T-fourth). Week 11: 2 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards, 0 TD.
Sadly, stale as compared within the earlier matchups. Actually hoping for high quality and amount from him, as groups have been zone-scheming the favourite moon ball away from Wilson.
This included the finale, when Freiermuth had 10 targets for 85 yards (season-highs), and a TD. He will certainly wish to shun his final goal, a fourth down drop that ended Pittsburgh’s final defeat. It was largely quick targets too, and hoping for a powerful scheme to make the passing assault extra different than we’ve seen. Defenses have figured you out in your four-game dropping streak.
Couple issues that stood out from Week 16 had been slot charges and common depth of goal (ADOT):
First off, we see that every one three major TEs (min. three targets) had above common slot snaps final matchup. What additionally jumps ADOT, with Ravens focused extra downfield than Freiermuth. He aligned within the slot for 73.3 of passing snaps, most of Week 16, however had a low 5.0 ADOT (T-Fifteenth/27 qualifiers), largely out routes.
Andrews had the longest 12.5 ADOT of the week, as Doubtless was sixth-most at 7.7, and ranked second and ninth in slot charge. Whereas Pittsburgh restricted their whole yards final time, we see some extra of the challenges they current the Steelers protection, and friendlier utilization for manufacturing than how Freiermuth has been used.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Zay Flowers, their main receiver in 2024, is out for the competition which is clearly large. He dominated the Week 16 with 8 targets and 5 catches. Only one different receiver was focused, Rashod Bateman, who had three and only one catch.
They may little doubt want him to step up, together with the remainder of the room in Flowers absence, in addition to lean on their TEs much more.
Baltimore 2024 Targets:
Flowers: 112 (twenty first). Bateman: 67 (T-59th). Nelson Agholor (28), Tylan Wallace (12).
Actually illustrates this, and right here’s Pittsburgh’s whereas I’m at it.
Pittsburgh 2024 Targets:
George Pickens: 100 (T-Thirtieth), Calvin Austin 56 (T-73rd), Van Jefferson 40, Mike Williams 34. The latter noticed extra targets within the loaded Jets room the primary 9 weeks, with simply 13 since changing into a Steeler. Effectively underutilized, and hoping he will get extra concerned Saturday night time.
Listed here are stats for the Steelers WRs in Ravens matchups:
Pickens – Week 11: 12 targets, 8 catches, 89 yards, 0 TD. Week 16: NONE (injured).
Austin – Week 11: 2 targets, 1 catch, -1 yard, 0 TD. Week 16: 5 targets, 4 catches, 65 yards, 0 TD.
Jefferson – Week 11: 1 goal, 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TD. Week 16: 3 targets, 2 catches, 27 yards, 0 TD.
Williams – NONE. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 24 yards, 0 TD.
Pickens being out final matchup was clearly an enormous loss for Pittsburgh. Wants to offer an analogous influence to his Week 11 outing, or higher hopefully, and should differ his focused areas greater than major deep photographs that defenses have squandered not too long ago, together with Baltimore.
After they do, Pickens presence will knock on wooden help a greater day, and the others utilization will probably be fascinating to watch. Pittsburgh additionally had 4 drops within the finale, specifically from Pickens, one other head-scratcher from that loss.
Listed here are WRs yards per catch and route run from Week 16:
Flowers utilization down the sphere will certainly be missed alongside together with his quantity, with 20.0 YPC (T-ninth) and 4.17 per route run (fifth) towards Pittsburgh final sport. As compared, Bateman’s 0.67 yards per route run was fully totally different, 68th/75 qualifying WRs. Whereas above the imply in YPC, he caught simply certainly one of his three targets at 14 yards.
With out Flowers, Pittsburgh ought to bey in a position to key in additional on the remainder of their roster, however don’t underestimate them both.
Austin had above the road marks in every, 16.3 YPR (T-Twenty fourth), and a pair of.24 YPRR (Twenty fourth) in Pickens absence. For context, Austin averaged 15.2 within the common season, in comparison with Pickens comparable 15.3 quantity. Hope they use him to stretch the again finish of the protection extra, and higher YAC than we’ve seen from him and the group.
Jefferson did have an above common 13.5 YPC, specifically on a 21-yard explosive catch which isn’t sometimes his sport. Jefferson and Williams common route run ranked fiftieth and 68th out of 85 WRs. Once more, extra variance in route working please.
DEFENSE –
Go/Rush (season ranks), weekly yardage:
Go Yards: Pittsburgh (twenty fifth), 207, 207. Baltimore (thirty first), 205, 217.
Rush Yards: Ravens (1st), 122, 117. Steelers (sixth), 124, 220.
We see each groups had been higher by way of rush yards allowed, although it has waned tremendously within the again half of the yr for Pittsburgh, together with the Week 16 Baltimore sport. It was key to their victory and must be higher on each side of the ball.
Situational (season ranks), weekly numbers:
Third down: PIT (2nd) – Week 11: 4-of-11 Week 16: 4-of-10. BAL (T-Seventeenth) – Week 11: 4-of-16, Week 16: 4-of-10.
Fourth down: BAL (third) – Week 11: 0-for-1, Week 16: 0-of-1. Steelers (twenty ninth) – Week 11: N/A, Week 16: N/A.
Crimson zone: BAL (twelfth) – Week 11: 0-for-4, Week 16: 2-of-2. PIT (14th) – Week 11: 2-for-2, Week 16: 3-of-5.
An encouraging ingredient to Pittsburgh’s protection nonetheless is limiting third down conversions, together with their Ravens matchups. A draw back is Baltimore’s total success on offense, usually instances avoiding the down altogether, which occurred significantly of their Week 16 win. The extra third and longs, the higher. Baltimore’s protection was common total in 2024, however enhancements from the unit contains third downs and limiting Pittsburgh’s speeding.
The Ravens have additionally been a stingy fourth down protection, third within the NFL, and stopped every try within the earlier matchups on Pittsburgh’s offense. The Steelers additionally had a fourth down fail finish the sport for them of their loss within the finale. In reality, they ranked thirty first in fourth down conversions in 2024, and the Steelers protection ranks twenty ninth. BARF.
One other consider why I’d wish to see a sooner begin, together with maintaining on the scoreboard. Crimson zone regarded higher for each offenses. Huge in how the 2 matchups transpired, specifically Pittsburgh’s struggling purple zone offense shut out, however overcame that with victory. Transformed each journeys in Week 16, however not sufficient alternative to maintain up.
The Steelers protection has allowed a number of purple zone TDs every matchup, excellent charge allowed in Week 11, together with a discouraging uptick to 3-of-5 final time the groups met. How the purple zone goes down is clearly large to the result. Many elements play into this, and one of the best complement of a number of matters right now will probably win.
To shut, right here’s a visible of defenses cross and run EPA (measures total scoring influence) in Week 16:
Go Protection EPA: 2024: BAL (ninth), PIT (thirteenth). Week 11: BAL (2nd). PIT (4th). Week 16: BAL (4th), PIT (Thirtieth)
Run Protection EPA: 2024: BAL (fifth), PIT (sixteenth). Week 11: BAL (twelfth). PIT (Twenty second). Week 16: BAL (Seventeenth), PIT (twentieth)
The Ravens protection ranked greatest in each single facet. Prime ten on the season in each cross and run EPA, together with Pittsburgh matchups, largely with prime ten ranks. Not what you wish to see with how a lot the Steelers are aiming to repair on offense. Much less so in run protection, however have been in a position to restrict Pittsburgh effectively total.
Additionally dangerous information is Pittsburgh’s Twenty second and twenty eighth run protection EPA towards Baltimore and the cross protection falling off a cliff final sport to Thirtieth within the embarrassing Week 16 beatdown (34-17). That wasn’t too way back, and Pittsburgh being unable to proper the ship in two video games since has most predicting an early Steelers exit.
The stats make that onerous to argue, however something can occur on a weekly foundation. Pittsburgh has a number of issues to enhance and should accomplish that for hopeful victory, or it may prolong the playoff win drought (since 2016). What an important feeling that may be, however Baltimore will definitely have one thing to say about that.
Right here’s to hoping for a Steelers squad that appears significantly better than the final month.
Opponent-Scouting-Studies: Offense Defense
Damage-Studies: Steelers Ravens
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