Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction, decide: Will the ‘Sugar Present’ Sphere of affect finish at UFC 306?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. At the moment, he takes a better have a look at the UFC 306 primary occasion between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili (ESPN+ pay-per-view).

Sean O’Malley UFC 306 preview

Staple data:

• File: (18-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC)
• Top: 5’11” Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs. Attain: 72″
• Final struggle: Decision win over Marlon Vera (March 9, 2024)
• MMA LAB (Arizona)
• Stance/hanging type: Change-stance/kickboxing
• Danger administration: Good

Supplemental data:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Newbie MMA titles
+ Newbie boxing and kickboxing expertise
+ 12 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Inventive hanging movement and feints
^ Variates appears to be like and ranges
+ Correct shot choice
^ Coming ahead and off the counter
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Reveals improved offensive wrestling
+ Serviceable scrambling and grappling
+ Energetic and attacking guard

Merab Dvalishvili UFC 306 preview

Staple data:

• File: (17-4 MMA, 10-2 UFC)
• Top: 5’6″ Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Attain: 68″
• Final struggle: Decision win over Henry Cejudo (Feb.17, 2024)
• Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas)
• Stance/hanging type: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Danger administration: Truthful

Supplemental data:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ A number of sambo championships
+ Judo black belt
+ Newbie MMA accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round end
+ Relentless tempo and stress
+ Steadily improved hanging method
^ Variates appears to be like and ranges
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
^ Works nicely from bodylock
+ Stable offensive wrestling
^ Chains assaults and scrambles nicely
+ Aggressive floor striker
^ Operates nicely in transition

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili focal point: Putting with “The Sugar Present”

The principle occasion for UFC 306 includes a bantamweight title struggle between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

Regardless of trying just like the second coming of Ziggy Sobotka from “The Wire,” there’s much more to O’Malley than meets the attention.

Though O’Malley initially struck me as a karate-boxing Conor McGregor clone when he first got here off Dana White’s Contender Collection, the native of Montana has appeared to make use of his chameleon-like talents to piece collectively a strong hanging sport.

One key side of O’Malley’s hanging to observe is how he ties collectively the handfight and jabbing collectively to learn distance, then implement each respective instruments’ utilities collectively to search out momentum and his larger moments. pic.twitter.com/mmqOphVrWJ

— Dan A. (@TypewritingDA) September 6, 2024

Competent from each stances, O’Malley flows and counters from the rear facet like second nature. Whether or not he’s slipping on the within to return excessive from orthodox or taking an angle to counter from southpaw, O’Malley’s means to place opposition on the finish of his punches is impeccable.

I’m additionally a giant fan of O’Malley’s underrated bodywork, which might serve him nicely on this contest.

Whether or not he’s throwing crosses or entrance teeps, O’Malley does a very good job of getting his opponent’s defenses to decrease with the intention to open the door for change-ups excessive. That stated, “The Sugar Present” will have to be additional cautious with regards to his hanging positions reverse a menace like Dvalishvili.

An aggressive fighter by nature, Dvalishvili has no points with regards to bringing the struggle to his opponents.

Though Dvalishvili’s background is in judo and sambo, the Georgian fighter has been steadily shoring up his hanging underneath the care of Ray Longo and firm. Not solely has Dvalishvili cleaned up on his normal method, however the 33-year-old has additionally been incorporating extra issues like feints to play off of.

Dvalishvili seems to have an impeccable sense of timing, seemingly using his personal awkward rhythms to throw off his opposition. Whether or not he’s connecting punches to takedowns or mixing within the occasional spinning assault, Dvalishvili is usually a tough character to get a beat on.

Dvalishvili could stage assaults somewhat bit an excessive amount of off the backfoot for my liking, however the Serra-Longo product has proven that he’s not afraid to get soiled when he must.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili breakdown: Profitable the wrestling

Provided that wrestling is a crux of Dvalishvili’s sport, nobody ought to be shocked to see him take a look at O’Malley early and sometimes in that division.

A versatile takedown artist, Dvalishvili has many instruments at his disposal.

Though Dvalishvili historically favors single-leg snatches (like numerous sambo-based practitioners we’ve seen within the octagon), the Serra-Longo standout has integrated much more double-legs since coaching stateside.

From hitting pictures within the open to finishing doubles towards the fence, Dvalishvili is usually a tough buyer to dissuade. And when Dvalishvili does get his man down, he’s not shy about instantly trying to land strikes in transition.

Dvalishvili additionally seems to be an issue contained in the clinch, making himself real nightmare materials each time allowed to determine the bodylock. That stated, his opponent isn’t any slouch within closed quarters.

Regardless of surrendering takedowns to lesser wrestlers in previous fights, O’Malley has made measurable enhancements within the grappling division.

Apart from seeming to have a greater understanding with regards to using underhooks and whizzers, O’Malley appears to be making use of his athleticism within the scrambling division. Whether or not O’Malley is trying switches that parlay into Granby rolls or simply merely trying to management a wrist and stand, the 29-year-old has been placing work into that a part of his sport.

I believe that O’Malley can even get off some severe floor and pound given his lengthy body and hanging prowess, however I doubt that he’ll wish to interact with somebody like Dvalishvili for lengthy.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds

Regardless of the oddsmakers opening the challenger as the favourite, public cash has flipped the betting traces, itemizing O’Malley -138 and Dvalishvili +110 through FanDuel.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction, decide

Regardless that I don’t disagree with the opener, I’m not stunned within the slightest to see cash pile in on O’Malley.

Apart from being the extra hyped fan-favorite and youthful fighter (one thing MMA gamblers swarm to religiously), O’Malley has reliable expertise which have impressed me and lots of for a while. Whether or not we’re speaking about O’Malley’s impeccable distance administration or his ever-improving scrambling means, nobody ought to be doubting the legitimacy of “The Sugar Present” at this level of the champion’s profession.

Furthermore, O’Malley, as I’ve said in a number of breakdowns earlier than, has a method that thrives within the bigger octagon – which was greater than obvious in his final outing.

Nonetheless, regardless of Dvalishvili being at an on-paper drawback with regards to each the footwork and the combating terrain, the Georgian challenger has proven a capability to climate some severe storms en path to discovering his stride. And as soon as Davlishvili can discover his means into this fight sambo-like spin cycle, the 10-year professional is relentless with regards to his sticky type of assault.

Though I used to be initially leaning towards O’Malley knocking Davlishvili out with a knee inside the first two frames, I discover it extremely tough to fade “The Machine” on account of his insane tempo and dedication.

I’ve a sense that my preliminary lean towards an O’Malley knockout is the proper name, however I additionally imagine that Davlishvili might be one of many hardest stylistic matchups for the champ outdoors of Umar Nurmagomedov. For that purpose, I’ll semi-reluctantly facet with the arguably extra sturdy fighter in Davlishvili to outlive the early storm and draw back down the stretch (presumably incomes a late end if O’Malley’s physique fails to carry collectively).

Prediction: Dvalishvili by determination

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili begin time, the place to observe

As the primary occasion, champ O’Malley and challenger Dvalishvili are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 12:30 a.m. ET. The principle card airs on pay-per-view through ESPN+.

For extra on the cardboard, go to MMA Junkie’s occasion hub for UFC 306.