Retro Theft Assessment: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 at Noche UFC

Few issues infuriate MMA followers greater than a struggle being scored incorrectly, although the time period “theft” tends to be thrown round carelessly and is commonly steeped in bias. With Theft Assessment, we’ll have a look again at controversial fights and decide whether or not the judges had been rightly criticized for his or her determination or if pundits want to look at their very own knee-jerk reactions.

Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet for a 3rd time on Saturday at UFC 306, in a struggle that’s supposed to find out as soon as and for all who’s the true queen of the 125-pound division.

Let’s hope we get a extra definitive reply than what we noticed of their rematch.

When Grasso shockingly submitted Shevchenko to assert the flyweight title of their first struggle at UFC 285, it was all however assured that Shevchenko can be granted a right away rematch given her spectacular run as champion. The runback occurred six months afterward Sept. 16, 2023 on the inaugural Noche UFC, and after an superior 25-minute struggle, the judges’ verdict was anyone’s guess.

Because it turned out, a cut up draw was introduced, leaving everybody barely confused, considerably shocked, after which downright befuddled when the official scorecards had been launched.

What was the official end result?

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko ends in a cut up draw.

How did the struggle go?

Although Shevchenko arguably had the sting within the first matchup with Grasso earlier than making a fateful mistake, it was apparent how evenly matched these ladies are and the early a part of the rematch was no completely different.

Shevchenko’s precision was on full show as she went to the physique with kicks to set the tone, whereas protecting her left hand loaded as much as catch Grasso coming in. The champion closed the space, prompting Shevchenko to go for a takedown that was stuffed. Nonetheless, she caught a pleasant elbow off of it. On Grasso’s aspect, she caught together with her jab, trusting it to maintain Shevchenko at bay. Nevertheless, the previous champion discovered a gap for a takedown and hunted for a back-take earlier than Grasso introduced the struggle again to the toes.

In Spherical 2, Grasso let her fingers go and it paid off as she scored with strikes earlier than blocking one other Shevchenko takedown. The complexion of the struggle dramatically modified when Grasso cracked Shevchenko with a counter proper that despatched her somersaulting backwards. A fast restoration led to Shevchenko tying Grasso up, which solely slowed the motion momentarily as Grasso used counter-wrestling to arrange just a few exhausting knees to the physique and punches to the face. Shevchenko anticipated Grasso resetting with the jab and put her on her again with a superbly timed takedown. For probably the most half, Grasso tied Shevchenko up and regardless of Shevchenko’s greatest makes an attempt to crack Grasso’s protection, probably the most damaging strike might need been a Grasso upkick. On to Spherical 3.

Shevchenko’s kicks had been so sharp, it was superb to see her adapt on the fly after 10 minutes of information. She did a a lot better job of transferring out and in of Grasso’s vary to open the third, although Grasso continued to come back ahead with elementary boxing. Such a terrific struggle. Shevchenko’s wrestling focus paid off huge time as she grounded Grasso for a lot of this spherical and threatened with a deep guillotine choke. Grasso was left to defend and wait out the clock.

Via three rounds, it was anybody’s struggle. Shevchenko’s jab was on show early in Spherical 4, one other wrinkle in her extremely numerous recreation. It appeared like she may out-strike Grasso for 5 minutes, however as a substitute she went for a expensive takedown. Grasso stuffed it and managed Shevchenko’s head, rifling in knees whereas forcing her backwards to stop Shevchenko from reaching right down to floor herself. A slam by Grasso put Shevchenko down, however not for lengthy as Shevchenko stood up hit a tough elbow on the separation. With 90 seconds to go, Shevchenko went again to the jab and added a late journey (that Grasso virtually countered with a kneebar), however was it sufficient to outweigh Grasso’s knees and slam?

Last spherical. The putting exchanges had been so shut, it appeared unimaginable for both warrior to create distance on the scorecards. At a look, Shevchenko gave the impression to be a shade higher together with her boxing. Then, déjà vu. Shevchenko went for a visit, solely to have Grasso instantly take her again. No fight-ending submission this time, however an emphatic sequence of ground-and-pound for Grasso, resulting in no less than one *ahem* fascinating scorecard.

What did the judges say?

Mike Bell scored it 47-47.

Sal D’Amato scored it 48-47 Shevchenko.

Junichiro Kamijo scored it 48-47 Grasso.

We should always in all probability break these down, proper?

Via the primary three rounds, all was properly in Judgelandia, with Bell, D’Amato, and Kamijo all having it 29-28 for Shevchenko, with “Bullet” taking Rounds 1 and three.

In Spherical 4, Kamijo gave a 10-9 to Grasso, whereas Bell and D’Amato had it 10-9 Shevchenko.

Based mostly on these scores, Grasso was down on two scorecards and wanted a end to retain her title. Or so we thought. As a substitute, she left the octagon with the belt because of Bell issuing a 10-8 rating in her favor (D’Amato and Kamijo scored it 10-9 Grasso) and leaving us with a cut up draw.

Let’s put a pin on this.

What did the numbers say?

(Statistics per UFC Stats)

Complete vital strikes: 84-80 in Grasso’s favor. She had an enormous benefit in Spherical 2 (28-15), which can be the place she scored the lone knockdown of the struggle, however aside from that, no spherical was separated by greater than 5 vital strikes.

Not useful, numbers!

Digging deeper, Shevchenko had the benefit in management time with over 8:30 over the 5 rounds, most notably in Spherical 3 when she nullified a lot of Grasso’s offense.

Shevchenko additionally had a slight edge in head (61-54) and floor strikes (7-2), whereas Grasso scored extra to the physique (12-6) and legs (18-13).

What did the media say?

Members of the media listed on MMA Decisions had been nearly cut up down the center, with 11 having it 48-47 Grasso and 11 having it 48-47 Shevchenko. I say “nearly” as a result of one intrepid soul (who shall remain nameless) truly had it 47-46 for Grasso.

What did the individuals say?

(Information derived from MMA Choices and Verdict MMA)

With practically 2000 scores submitted to MMA Choices, it’s protected to say that struggle followers had some ideas on this topic. They had been simply as torn on the end result because the judges and the media, with 46 % having it 48-47 Grasso and 41.3 % having it 48-47 Shevchenko. For what it’s value, two % had it the identical as Bell, 47-47.

So far as Spherical 4 goes, 52.8 % had it for Grasso, and 45.1 % for Shevchenko.

On Verdict, the ultimate rating was absurdly shut in keeping with followers, with Shevchenko successful by a measly 23 factors.

Actually, that needs to be even nearer as a result of anybody who didn’t rating Spherical 2 for Grasso needs to be embarrassed.

You wish to understand how shut this struggle was? Take a look at the Spherical 4 fan rating, which had a distinction of ZERO factors. That nearly by no means occurs on the Verdict app so far as I can recall.

How did I rating it?

I had it 48-47 Grasso once I first watched and I’m nonetheless comfy with that rating. However Spherical 4 was a toss-up and when you had it for Shevchenko, I don’t blame you. For the sake of transparency, let’s do a short round-by-round clarification:

• Spherical 1: 10-9 Shevchenko. She landed the heavier punches in my opinion and a well timed takedown prevented Grasso from mustering up any late-round heroics.
• Spherical 2: 10-9 Grasso. That is as clear because it will get. The spherical was determined when Grasso scored a knockdown and adopted with huge knees within the clinch.
• Spherical 3: 10-9 Shevchenko. One other spherical that shouldn’t be tough to attain. Shevchenko dominated on the bottom and all however nullified Grasso’s offense.
• Spherical 4: 10-9 Grasso. Not assured right here. Grasso had the most effective second of the spherical when she drove these knees into Shevchenko’s head, plus a slam, however Shevchenko was outboxing her the remainder of the time. A ten-9 Shevchenko rating is totally acceptable.
• Spherical 5: 10-9 Grasso. She put a stamp on the spherical with that late flurry. Was it a 10-8, although? Eeeeh… I can’t get there.

One may argue that Grasso did sufficient injury to threaten ending the struggle, however Shevchenko was all the time defending intelligently and at no level did I really feel referee Herb Dean was near stepping in. To not point out Shevchenko was having success within the standup early within the spherical, so I don’t see how Grasso’s surge mitigates that.

Was it a theft?

I can’t emphasize sufficient how a lot I disagree with giving Grasso that 10-8. I’m unsure I purchase the reasoning that Bell was making up for giving Spherical 4 to Shevchenko (a justifiable name!), as a result of if that’s the case, then that simply makes this a lot worse.

That mentioned, Grasso indisputably gained two rounds and it’s straightforward to lean in direction of her within the fourth as properly. Because it’s been some time since I’ve performed one among these, I’ll remind you that I solely contemplate a struggle a theft if it’s blindingly apparent that one competitor was superior and was not rewarded.

That’s not what occurred right here. What occurred right here was two of the most effective on the earth fought an extremely shut struggle that might have gone both method and the end result was muddled by a weird scoring determination. Based mostly on the playing cards after 4 rounds, Shevchenko was on her option to changing into champion once more, but it surely’s not a travesty of justice that Grasso retained primarily based on her precise efficiency.

The ultimate verdict

Not a theft. However Bell’s Spherical 5 rating is actual unhealthy and it seems like we’ve simply had method too many examples of a lone choose leaving a bad taste in people’s mouths these days.