Our information to each Week 11 NFL recreation: Matchup previews, predictions, picks and nuggets

The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we bought you lined with what that you must know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters carry us the most important keys to each recreation, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. The ESPN Analysis crew offers an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X elements, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us ultimate rating picks for each recreation. Every thing you wish to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the total Week 11 slate, together with an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs’ journey to Buffalo. All of it culminates with a “Monday Evening Soccer” matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Recreation instances are Sunday until in any other case famous.)

Bounce to a matchup:
BAL-PIT | GB-CHI | JAX-DET
MIN-TEN | LV-MIA | LAR-NE
CLE-NO | IND-NYJ | ATL-DEN
SEA-SF | KC-BUF | CIN-LAC
HOU-DAL

Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18
Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

Ravens (7-3) at Steelers (7-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to look at: In his previous eight video games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 landing passes and one interception. However the Steelers have contained Jackson greater than some other crew. He’s 1-3 in opposition to Pittsburgh and has totaled 4 landing passes and 7 interceptions whereas getting sacked 20 instances. — Jamison Hensley

Steelers storyline to look at: The Steelers are lastly opening AFC North play, and so they’ll do it with an offense that might give the Ravens suits. With Russell Wilson on the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per recreation and 30.3 factors per recreation up to now three weeks. The Ravens, in the meantime, are permitting a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per recreation along with 25.3 factors per recreation. To make issues worse, the Ravens may very well be with out security Kyle Hamilton (ankle). — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or extra yards downfield.

Daring prediction: Steelers defensive deal with Keeanu Benton will document at the very least two quarterback hits. He rattled off 5 straight video games with a quarterback hit to begin the season however hasn’t had one since Week 5. He is enjoying extra, and his go rush win price is a powerful 12% at defensive deal with — eleventh finest on the place. — Walder

Accidents: Ravens | Steelers

Fantasy X issue: Steelers large receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is simple. He has scored 20 or extra fantasy factors in two of his previous three video games. He faces a Ravens protection that enables probably the most fantasy factors per recreation to large receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens video games this season, which is the best price within the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Ravens 33, Steelers 30
Moody’s choose: Ravens 30, Steelers 27
Walder’s choose: Ravens 28, Steelers 22
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by a median of 4.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? … Steelers LB Queen says Ravens didn’t want him back

Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)

Packers storyline to look at: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have gained 10 straight in opposition to the Bears. A loss Sunday wouldn’t solely finish that streak but in addition one other one: The Packers haven’t began 0-3 in division play since 2005, however they have already got misplaced to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division begin is the second-longest energetic streak behind the Patriots, who have not began 0-3 in division play since 1994. — Rob Demovsky

Bears storyline to look at: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired on Tuesday, and can name performs for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives with out a landing. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to show extra “creativity” after the Bears stumbled throughout a three-game dropping streak throughout which they rank lifeless final in factors (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion price (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North video games below Eberflus, whose .167 win proportion in division play is the worst within the NFL since 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown an interception in seven straight video games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).

Daring prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams can have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I am betting altering to Brown because the offensive playcaller will assist spark the offense — which certainly has the expertise to be higher than it has been. — Walder

Accidents: Packers | Bears

Fantasy X issue: Packers tight finish Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or extra fantasy factors in 4 of his previous six video games. What stands out is his skill to realize yards after the catch, the place he leads the Packers. Kraft has a positive matchup dealing with a Bears protection that enables the ninth-most receiving yards per recreation to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at house this season. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Packers 24, Bears 15
Moody’s choose: Packers 24, Bears 16
Walder’s choose: Packers 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by a median of 4.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings ‘different dynamic’ to Packers’ backfield … QB Williams believes Bears have his back amid struggles … OC Waldron fired: What’s next for Bears, QB Williams

Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to look at: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second begin for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a recreation wherein he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over 3 times and led the Jaguars to only 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest whole in franchise historical past) in a loss to Minnesota. One factor that might assistance is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. concerned once more. He has had 4 catches for 34 yards the previous two weeks. — Mike DiRocco

Lions storyline to look at: New defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith is anticipated to make his Lions debut in opposition to Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland final week. Smith was not activated final Sunday to permit him to get acclimated to the group, however he is able to go this week. The Lions aren’t placing strain on him to fill the position of Professional Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgery to restore his fractured tibia and fibula, however to raise the protection in his personal manner. “I am not going to be wanting on the stats,” coach Dan Campbell mentioned. “I simply wish to know that he is doing his job and he is as productive as he might be in that.” — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score video games (determined by eight factors or fewer). That is probably the most such losses within the NFL.

Daring prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will document at the very least 11 whole tackles. Campbell ranks third amongst all gamers in run cease win price (48.6%) and is recording a deal with or help on 25% of opponent run performs, a really excessive price. — Walder

Accidents: Jaguars | Lions

Fantasy X issue: Lions working again David Montgomery. He is averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy factors per recreation, making him a dependable choice. Additionally, the Jaguars’ protection is permitting the third-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs, so count on Montgomery to see loads of motion. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the below on their win whole (8.5) with a loss. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Lions 31, Jaguars 14
Moody’s choose: Lions 34, Jaguars 17
Walder’s choose: Lions 31, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by a median of 16.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence, hope for post-bye return … Lions TE LaPorta day to day with shoulder injury … Lions’ last-second win interrupted by flight announcement

Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to look at: Sunday’s recreation would be the Vikings’ third consecutive AFC South matchup. They’ve gained the primary two, in opposition to the Colts and Jaguars, regardless of quarterback Sam Darnold committing three turnovers in every recreation. However their protection has pressured 5 turnovers throughout that stretch, and it is going to be primed to generate extra in opposition to a Titans offense that has dedicated 17 this season, tied for the third most within the league. — Kevin Seifert

Titans storyline to look at: The Titans are nicely conscious of the Vikings’ tenacious protection and the way it confuses quarterbacks. Contemplating the offensive line points and quarterback Will Levis‘ inexperience, it will seem to be Tennessee is at a significant drawback. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz mentioned they wish to make it simpler for Levis to see the solutions to the blitz early within the play and present Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they’ve counters to his in depth blitz package deal. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: Vikings large receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight video games with out a receiving landing, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight video games with out a landing reception.

Daring prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will document a sack. Although he has just one sack in his previous 5 video games, Landry has a 0.74-second go rush get off, the fifth quickest of any participant with at the very least 100 go rushes, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken 4 sacks in three of his previous 5 video games. — Walder

Accidents: Vikings | Titans

Fantasy X issue: Titans large receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy factors in Week 10 in opposition to a troublesome Chargers protection was a season excessive. After the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or extra targets in three straight video games and will proceed to shine in opposition to the Vikings. Minnesota’s protection provides up the third-most fantasy factors per recreation to large receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS within the first quarter this season, which is one of the best mark within the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Vikings 28, Titans 14
Moody’s choose: Viking 24, Titans 13
Walder’s choose: Vikings 22, Titans 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by a median of 6.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ conundrum: QB Darnold’s aggressiveness vs. INTs

Raiders (2-7) at Dolphins (3-6)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7 (43.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to look at: The Raiders will sport a new-look offense with the identical quarterback in Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas fired its offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach earlier than the bye week, and go recreation coordinator Scott Turner was elevated to interim OC … with an help from a well-recognized face. Former Raiders coach and longtime NFL coach Norv Turner, Scott’s dad, joined the employees as an adviser. “A wealth of data,” the youthful Turner mentioned of his father, who known as performs within the NFL from 1991 by means of 2019, with a one-year break. Minshew mentioned: “It is form of the identical bones, identical normal concept, simply … a little bit bit completely different taste.” — Paul Gutierrez

Dolphins storyline to look at: Dolphins rookie linebacker Chop Robinson has recorded at the very least 4 pressures in every of his previous three video games, and he recorded a sack in every of his previous two. Towards a Raiders crew that has allowed the fifth-most sacks within the NFL this season, Robinson and the Dolphins’ protection may replicate their efficiency in Week 10, after they pressured Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford 15 instances. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Raiders haven’t misplaced six straight video games in a single season since 2014. They began that season with 10 consecutive losses.

Daring prediction: Raiders working again Alexander Mattison, contemporary off a zero-reception recreation, will document a season-high in receiving yards (at present 43). Mattison ranks fifth amongst working backs in ESPN’s general receiving score (72), flashing sturdy open and YAC scores. — Walder

Accidents: Raiders | Dolphins

Fantasy X issue: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has averaged simply 13.4 fantasy factors per recreation since Week 8. However this week, Tagovailoa faces a Raiders protection that offers up the eighth-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS at house this season. They’re 1-4 ATS as favorites. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s choose: Dolphins 28, Raiders 14
Walder’s choose: Dolphins 26, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 62.4% (by a median of 5.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders sticking with Minshew over Ridder at QB … Dolphins RT Jackson out for season after surgery … McDaniel ignores ex-player calling Dolphins ‘soft’

Rams (4-5) at Patriots (3-7)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: LAR -5 (43.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to look at: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight video games, which is the second-longest energetic streak within the NFL, in accordance with ESPN Analysis. The Patriots’ protection has solely grabbed 4 interceptions all season, which is tied for twenty seventh within the league. — Sarah Barshop

Patriots storyline to look at: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is anticipated to make his Patriots debut along with his major contributions coming as a go rusher. The Patriots’ protection had its finest third-down efficiency of the season final week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success price and hopes to proceed that in opposition to a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in final week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game house dropping streak against the Jets in Week 8. They’re searching for consecutive house wins for the primary time since November 2022.

Daring prediction: Rams working again Kyren Williams will document 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ protection struggles to cease the run and the go, however I count on the Rams to construct a little bit of a lead right here after which let Williams carry them on lengthy drives the remainder of the way in which. They’ve the second-highest success price (48%) on designed carries. — Walder

Accidents: Rams | Patriots

Fantasy X issue: Patriots tight finish Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 however had scored 12-plus fantasy factors in three of his earlier 4 video games. Henry has constructed nice chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a positive matchup in opposition to a Rams protection permitting the ninth-most fantasy factors to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Since 2022, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as street favorites. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Rams 29, Patriots 27
Moody’s choose: Rams 22, Patriots 19
Walder’s choose: Rams 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by a median of 5.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Rams CB Ramsey trade first domino in team philosophy change … Does QB Maye crack the top 10 NFL rookies list?

Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: NO -1 (44.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to look at: The Browns are again from their bye week, and defensive communication is some extent of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep landing passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. Will probably be key in opposition to a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing recreation from earlier within the season. New Orleans accomplished a season-high 5 passes of 20 or extra yards in final week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi

Saints storyline to look at: The Saints had a late pressured fumble and interception to seal a win in opposition to the Falcons final week, and so they hope they’ll make a few of these performs in opposition to former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had 5 interceptions in his previous 4 begins (two in two begins as a Saint in 2023 and three final week). The Saints heaped reward on Winston as a teammate and chief this week, however Saints security Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception final week, additionally joked “I am anticipating a shot, first play of the sport, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: A loss for the Saints would be the franchise’s worst 11-game begin to a season since 2005, when in addition they went 3-8.

Daring prediction: Browns large receiver Elijah Moore can have 60-plus receiving yards. He had 9 targets per week in the past and managed solely 28 yards, however I count on that focus on quantity to nonetheless be there, particularly since he might typically draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed a 1.9 yards-per-coverage snap this season (third most amongst slot corners), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder

Accidents: Browns | Saints

Fantasy X issue: Browns large receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston again below heart and Tillman as his No. 1 goal. They’re going to be up in opposition to a Saints protection that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been constant, scoring 18-plus fantasy factors in every of his previous three video games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of these. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS of their previous six video games (they lined final week). Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Browns 22, Saints 20
Moody’s choose: Browns 27, Saints 24
Walder’s choose: Browns 30, Saints 23
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by a median of 0.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ salary cap math could impact Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Business decision’ to sit out game backfired

Colts (4-6) at Jets (3-7)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)

Colts storyline to look at: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that may very well be a lift for Indy’s run recreation. Within the 5 full video games he performed this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry, 142.4 dashing yards per recreation and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their 9 whole dashing touchdowns in these 5 video games. In the meantime, working again Jonathan Taylor has 4 100-yard performances in simply seven video games this season. — Stephen Holder

Jets storyline to look at: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in final week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a significant emphasis on tackling fundamentals in follow. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to your entire crew (sure, even offense). In addition they practiced in pads greater than common. Prior to now 5 video games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, rating thirty first over that span. — Wealthy Cimini

Stat to know: Jets large receiver Davante Adams‘ 51% catch proportion is the second worst within the NFL since Week 7 amongst go catchers with a minimal of 25 targets.

Daring prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson actually comes along with his justifiable share of variance, however that may work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you may often rely on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder

Accidents: Colts | Jets

Fantasy X issue: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers had been hoping for, with simply two video games with greater than 20 fantasy factors. Nevertheless, Rodgers has a positive matchup in opposition to a Colts protection that enables the seventh-most passing yards per recreation and the fifth-highest completion proportion. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS in opposition to groups with dropping information this season. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Colts 21, Jets 14
Moody’s choose: Jets 24, Colts 17
Walder’s choose: Colts 23, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by a median of three.7 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, turn back to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ complicated relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich compare to Saleh?

Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

Falcons storyline to look at: The Falcons enable the best completion proportion to opposing quarterbacks within the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback strain proportion (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared a lot better whereas not below strain — finishing 70.2% to 43.9% when below duress. — Marc Raimondi

Broncos storyline to look at: The Falcons would be the fourth offense at present ranked within the prime 10 that the Broncos have confronted this season. Two instances (in opposition to Tampa and Kansas Metropolis), Denver’s protection made life pretty depressing for these offenses and one offense (Baltimore) put collectively seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is searching for to keep away from consecutive video games with out a passing landing for the primary time in his profession as a starter.

Daring prediction: The Broncos’ protection will rating a landing. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s protection is a strength-on-strength battle, however the Broncos’ protection, which is fourth in EPA per play, is particularly good in opposition to the go. — Walder

Accidents: Falcons | Broncos

Fantasy X issue: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a dependable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or extra factors in 5 of his previous six video games, together with three with 20-plus factors. The Falcons hand over the seventh-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the street this season after going 2-7 ATS on the street final season. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Falcons 24, Broncos 22
Moody’s choose: Broncos 27, Falcons 21
Walder’s choose: Broncos 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by a median of two.7 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Falcons back kicker Koo despite 3 missed field goals in loss … Rookie RB Estime could be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons need better starts … Tough loss to Chiefs shows Broncos’ limited margin for error

Seahawks (4-5) at 49ers (5-4)

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to look at: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry that the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve misplaced six straight regular-season and playoff video games to the 49ers by a mixed rating of 184-96, together with a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as shut as the ultimate rating indicated. Seattle may have a number of key gamers out there Sunday who did not play within the first assembly, resembling Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and trade acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson

49ers storyline to look at: Christian McCaffrey‘s return final week helped him knock some rust off earlier than dealing with a crew in opposition to which he has had nice success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per recreation in six conferences with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he will get to 125 once more Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the one participant in NFL historical past to submit 125-plus scrimmage yards in opposition to one crew seven consecutive instances. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his profession in opposition to division opponents with a 76.7 QBR in these video games. That is the second-highest QBR by any quarterback for the reason that metric was launched in 2006 (minimal of 10 begins).

Daring prediction: Jones IV will document a sack. He is an excellent blitzer however wasn’t used to dashing the passer a lot in Tennessee. Final week he recorded a season-high 10 go rushes, and I count on coach Mike Macdonald will wish to preserve deploying him like that. — Walder

Accidents: Seahawks | 49ers

Fantasy X issue: Seahawks working again Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy manufacturing currently. Nevertheless, the 49ers allowed a mixed 36.7 fantasy factors to Buccaneers working backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, exhibiting vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in 5 conferences since 2022. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
Moody’s choose: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20
Walder’s choose: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by a median of 6.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive leading tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir gets 5-year, $92M extension

Chiefs (9-0) at Bills (8-2)

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to look at: In seven profession video games in opposition to the Chiefs, counting three within the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 landing passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs able to holding him from one other large recreation this time, even when Allen is throwing to a gaggle of receivers depleted by accidents? Prior to now two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance in opposition to Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher

Payments storyline to look at: Can the Payments’ protection proceed to restrict the Chiefs’ offense within the common season? The Payments have held the Chiefs to twenty.8 factors per recreation in 4 regular-season conferences since 2020. Taking the ball away is some extent of emphasis for this protection and may very well be the important thing to success. The Payments have 12 straight video games with at the very least one takeaway, the second-longest energetic streak within the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Payments have gained 5 straight video games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin throughout the win streak is the third highest by any crew within the NFL over that span, trailing solely the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)

Daring prediction: Payments cornerback Christian Benford will choose off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is enjoying nice this season. The truth is, no outdoors cornerback has allowed fewer yards per protection snap (0.6) than him, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. A part of that’s as a result of he is permitting fewer targets than common (13%) but in addition that he has a minus-9% completion proportion allowed over expectation. — Walder

Accidents: Chiefs | Bills

Fantasy X issue: Chiefs working again Kareem Hunt. Kansas Metropolis is first in time of possession (33:01), which suggests we should always see plenty of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in every of his previous 4 video games, scoring at the very least 17 fantasy factors in three of them. The Payments’ protection is permitting the second-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 convention video games. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Payments 29, Chiefs 27
Moody’s choose: Payments 25, Chiefs 23
Walder’s choose: Payments 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by a median of 1.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: All the strange — and lucky — ways the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Bills’ offensive stars called these plays for themselves — here’s how they worked out

Bengals (4-6) at Chargers (6-3)

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to look at: Can quarterback Joe Burrow preserve attacking split-safety appears to be like? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per try (8.4) in opposition to these security shells, in accordance with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip within the league. — Ben Child

Chargers storyline to look at: Sunday would be the first large take a look at for the Chargers’ protection, which ranks first within the NFL in factors allowed per recreation (13.1). The Bengals are one of many NFL’s finest offenses, averaging the sixth-most factors per recreation this yr (26.1). — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would improve their possibilities of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, in accordance with ESPN Analytics.

Daring prediction: Chargers large receiver Quentin Johnston will document 80-plus receiving yards and a landing. That is as a result of he’ll most frequently line up in entrance of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per protection snap this yr, second most amongst his place, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder

Accidents: Bengals | Chargers

Fantasy X issue: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned extra on Herbert and the passing recreation after the bye. He has had 30 or extra go makes an attempt in three of his previous 5 video games. It is vital to notice that Herbert has scored at the very least 19 fantasy factors in three consecutive video games. The Bengals enable the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the street, whereas the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at house this season. Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Bengals 25, Chargers 23
Moody’s choose: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
Walder’s choose: Bengals 27, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by a median of 0.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Childhood photo links Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh before Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s best defense? We’re about to find out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow

Texans (6-4) at Cowboys (3-6)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to look at: The Texans are averaging 119 dashing yards per recreation fueled by working again Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest common per recreation (98.3). The Cowboys are permitting 152.1 dashing yards per recreation, so this might result in an enormous evening from Mixon. Additionally wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after lacking the previous 5 video games, which ought to open up extra working lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime

Cowboys storyline to look at: Can the second week of Cooper Rush because the beginning quarterback be higher than the primary? He averaged 1.96 yards per try final week in opposition to the Eagles, so it must be. The Cowboys are on the lookout for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They’ve had three house losses by at the very least 25 factors, matching probably the most in crew historical past. The Cowboys haven’t misplaced 5 straight house video games since 2015, after they completed 4-12. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 lead the NFL. Houston solely produced three takeaways from Weeks 1-5.

Daring prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield within the first half even with the sun having already set. As a substitute, their greatest drawback will probably be themselves. And a part of the equation right here is that Houston will run throughout them and personal time of possession, barely giving Rush a lot time to work anyway. — Walder

Accidents: Texans | Cowboys

Fantasy X issue: Mixon. Houston’s passing recreation may get a lift with Collins again, however the Cowboys’ protection stays susceptible in opposition to the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs, and their defensive entrance ranks thirtieth in run cease win price (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 video games, their longest ATS dropping streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

Kahler’s choose: Texans 30, Cowboys 9
Moody’s choose: Texans 28, Cowboys 17
Walder’s choose: Texans 30, Cowboys 6
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by a median of 8.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career … What Prescott’s season-ending surgery would mean for Cowboys