NFL straight-up picks, Week 15: Virtually no religion within the Seahawks or Steelers in huge matchups

Week 14 was one other slate of quiet competence from our game-picking panel. Three of our seven members landed at 11-2 or higher within the closing bye week of the 2024 NFL season.

Now we enter the ultimate stretch. 4 weeks and 64 video games. Some shall be battles between groups jockeying for playoff place. Others shall be slogs between two rosters ready for the holiday prospects of January. Some shall be a mix of each.

That makes Week 15’s video games tough to determine. We’ve bought iron sharpening iron in battles between playoff hopefuls when the Pittsburgh Steelers meet the Philadelphia Eagles and Inexperienced Bay Packers travels to face the Seattle Seahawks. We’ve additionally bought slop piled on slop in a Jacksonville Jaguars-New York Jets showdown and no matter disgrace grows from the seeds of Dallas Cowboys-Carolina Panthers.

So who’ll win? Let’s speak it out. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a discipline of lots of. In reality, I’m now doing a little facet work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you wish to speak extra about these video games.

Becoming a member of me for 2024 is a six-person panel starting from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Corridor). Listed here are our Week 15 picks:

and:

Since our enhancing software program often struggles to make these picks tremendous clear, right here they’re in a neater to learn (however unattainable to chop and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down three video games primarily based on what I do and don’t like.

Why I like this choose:

Selecting the Baltimore Ravens over the New York Giants felt like dishonest. As an alternative, let’s have a look at the group I believed may bounce again after making Thomas Brown interim head coach and as a substitute gained 5 yards of complete offense within the first half towards the San Francisco 49ers. Now Caleb Williams has to face a considerably higher protection.

Why I don’t like this choose:

The Bears stay a gifted group that provides as much as manner lower than the sum of its components. They’ve a prime 10 passing protection that ought to have the ability to put up extra of a struggle than the Atlanta Falcons did in Minneapolis final week. Sam Darnold is flying excessive after final week’s 5 landing efficiency; a letdown efficiency might loom.

Final week: 1-0
2024 thus far: 11-3 (.786)

Why I like this choose:

The Packers have solely misplaced to the NFC’s greatest groups this season (Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings). The Seahawks are good, however not fairly at that stage. Seattle’s four-game win streak has come over three groups with a mixed 20 p.c probability to make the playoffs, per ESPN. The Seahawks greatest win, at present, is over a debuting Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in Week 1.

Plus, Toyotas are on sale, and we all know how a lot Jordan Love enjoys that.

Jordan Love, Weeks 1-10: 0.103 EPA/play, 18th in composite QB rank, 88.2 passer ranking, 15 TDs, 10 INTs, 7.6 yards/att

/Toyotathon begins, Nov. 15

Jordan Love, Weeks 11-14: 0.438 EPA/play, THIRD in composite QB rank, 118.2 ranking, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 10.3 yards/att pic.twitter.com/BjcdyVoL19

— Christian D’Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 10, 2024

Why I don’t like this choose:

The Packers haven’t gained in Seattle since 2008 and simply twice all time. Zach Charbonnet impressed final week and whereas the Inexperienced Bay run protection is best than it’s been lately it stays a barely scabbed over wound that may very well be crumbled aside by the suitable tailback. Revived retread quarterbacks make up 75 p.c of the Packers’ losses this season and now they get Geno Smith.

Final week: 1-0
2024 thus far: 8-6 (.571)

San Francisco completely thrashed Chicago final week, main for roughly 57 minutes of an hour-long recreation. The remainder of the Rams’ 2024 suggests final week’s explosion just isn’t sustainable. The Niners are a cornered animal because of their slim playoff hopes and a tricky ending schedule, which suggests Shanahan is gonna pull out some new wrinkles that might take Los Angeles without warning.

Final week: 1-0
2024 thus far: 4-10 (.286)