NFL center class contenders vs. pretenders, that includes Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, and extra

Halfway via the NFL season, we’re beginning to see the actually elite groups separate themselves on the prime of the league. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs fall on this class as main candidates to achieve the Super Bowl. We’re additionally seeing some actually horrid groups separate themselves on the backside of the league. The Patriots, Jaguars and Saints fall into this class, groups whose seasons are just about lifeless within the water at this level.

Nonetheless, what will we make of the groups in between them? The center class of the NFL has by no means felt bigger, with a lot of the league nonetheless hovering round .500. There are some extremely enjoyable and good groups, however all with some large flaws as effectively. So how will we separate these groups which might be true contenders from groups who’ve benefitted from some luck this season? That’s the objective immediately, to parse via the center class of the NFL and see who can actually make a deep run within the postseason, and who won’t have the horses this yr.

Utilizing FTN Fantasy’s Workforce DVOA rankings, we’ll separate the highest 5 in Workforce DVOA and the underside 12 in the identical metric, hopefully getting groups 6-19 to debate. Within the course of, we’re flipping the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers, as a result of I feel the Payments are among the many NFL’s elite. So let’s hop in and see which groups are contenders and that are pretenders, beginning with the Tremendous Bowl runner ups from final season.

San Francisco 49ers: Contenders (hesitantly)

Part of me needs to imagine that this 49ers’ season is completed. Already with losses to the Rams, Cardinals and Vikings, they’ve put themselves behind the eight-ball with regards to playoff rivalry, and nonetheless have video games towards Tampa Bay, Inexperienced Bay and Detroit arising with the opposite division video games. The 49er protection isn’t dangerous this yr, nevertheless it’s only a bit off the usual we affiliate with this group. They’re fifteenth in Defensive EPA per play and sixteenth in Success Price, making them nearly completely common, a drop down from their elite ranks. Mix that with losing WR Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL and also you get a group that’s been severely hit by the damage bug and the general mind drain of being one of the best group within the convention for 5 or so years.

But, I discover myself nonetheless believing on this group. RB Christian McCaffrey might be coming again after the bye week, as will WR Jauan Jennings. It stays to be seen how efficient McCaffrey might be after lacking a big portion of the season, however his means to maintain San Francisco out of man protection conditions and be probably the most explosive portion of the Niners’ offense is essential with Aiyuk out for the season. I need to say this group received’t make it, however so long as Kyle Shanahan is teaching I feel the Niners are contenders…possibly.

Houston Texans: Pretenders

The Texans are a bizarre group. A irritating group, if you’ll.

Regardless of having all of the makings of a group prepared to leap into the waters of the elite this season, they simply haven’t put collectively constant stretches of play. A big a part of this falls on the offense, who has an issue up entrance. They’re twentieth in Adjusted Line Yards, lifeless final within the NFL in share of runs the place the again is hit at or behind the road of scrimmage, and CJ Stroud has been sacked 21 instances. All of those got here to a head in a befuddling Thursday Evening loss to the New York Jets the place Stroud was sacked eight instances and solely accomplished 11 of his 30 passes. Defensively, I feel they’re fairly good, however are inclined to a whole lot of explosive performs downfield, having the third-highest DVOA allowed on deep passes in all the league.

WR Nico Collins coming again ought to assist the offense return to some type of good play, however I’m undecided if this group is prepared but to be a critical playoff contender.

Washington Commanders: Contenders

I nonetheless have my doubts concerning the sustainability of all of this, however make no mistake about it: the 7-2 Commanders are contenders within the NFC. Their offense, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and star wideout Terry McLaurin, is placing up extraordinarily environment friendly numbers, sitting fairly at first in offensive EPA per play and second in DVOA on that very same facet of the ball. They keep out of apparent passing conditions, and even once they do, they get some hero performs from Daniels and McLaurin, who’ve displayed a mind-meld in contrast to something I’ve seen from a rookie QB this early. As soon as they get RB Brian Robinson again, the run sport turns into much more potent.

I’ve a whole lot of questions concerning the viability of a protection that’s simply okay, but when the offense can play like they’ve, they’ll get a shot in a bizarre NFC.

Inexperienced Bay Packers: Contenders

I nonetheless place confidence in the Packers, regardless of a humbling 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Numerous that religion is reliant on a wholesome Jordan Love, nevertheless. It was clear on Sunday that Love wasn’t 100% as a result of a groin damage suffered towards Jacksonville, and his motion was compromised, resulting in some actually boneheaded performs.

Holding the Lions to solely 24 factors is a testomony to each the climate affecting the sport and the Packers’ protection, however the offense has to get extra from their youth in these kind of video games. Love had a nasty sport general, the receivers mixed for six drops and penalties harm their group. However once more, I feel I’ve seen extra sustainable offense from the Packers than not, so I’ll preserve them within the contender class.

Philadelphia Eagles: Contender (hesitantly)

Identical to the Texans above them, the Eagles are an extremely irritating group. Regardless of beating the Jaguars 28-23, the offense sputtered for a lot of the sport and had been actively hamstrung by their head coach and his rollercoaster choice making in important moments. That’s probably the most bewildering half about this group. Nick Sirianni feels incapable of constructing a sound choice, and it trickles down via the remainder of the employees. For instance: a rollout move on 4th and 1 regardless of having Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the group. Or possibly kicking a 58 yard area objective as an alternative of attempting to ice the sport by simply going for it. Or how about all of the failed 4th down conversions? These items all add up and it places the pinnacle coach straight in entrance of the expertise attempting to win the sport. If the Eagles make the playoffs and sputter out once more, it’ll be due to the pinnacle coach.

Nonetheless, Philly is a contender due to stated expertise. They’ve too many stars on offense and it feels just like the protection is coming collectively on the proper level within the season. Including CB Cooper DeJean to the beginning lineup has helped mix what Vic Fangio needs to do within the secondary, and so they’re getting high quality play from LBs Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. Their inconsistent move rush could be what will get them on the defensive facet of the ball, however they’ve performed effectively.

The Eagles are contenders, however till Nick Sirianni reveals he’s able to not slicing out his personal groups’ legs from below them, they’re nothing greater than that.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Contender (hesitantly)

One other hesitant contender enters the chat! The Steelers are 6-2 and within the midst of getting some actually good soccer from QB Russell Wilson, so why are they hesitant contenders? The primary hesitancy is how sustainable this degree of play from Wilson is. Since getting into the beginning lineup he’s proven the flexibility to generate explosives downfield along with his arm whereas retaining Pittsburgh’s offense on monitor, however I don’t understand how constant each he and the operating sport might be. In Wilson’s two video games, they’ve performed two of the worst run defenses within the NFL within the Jets and Giants, and have video games towards each the Ravens and Browns in addition to the Chiefs arising. If they’ll’t persistently generate something on the bottom, it places extra on the shoulders of Wilson, who won’t be capable to carry that load like he used to. The protection continues to be good, however the Steelers have all the time fielded an excellent protection. If Pittsburgh needs to go additional than the divisional spherical, it’ll have to preserve this degree of play from Wilson.

Los Angeles Chargers: Contender

The Chargers are a contender as a result of in a weaker AFC, they’ve two issues that separate groups come playoff time: a protection that is superb and a QB enjoying at a really excessive degree. Justin Herbert has actually performed some insane soccer over the past 4 video games. Whereas the stats won’t present it (throwing to Will Dissly and Simi Fehoko will do this), he’s proven a lot management over this offense and is even doing extra creation out of construction as effectively. So long as Herbert is enjoying effectively, they’ll have a shot in each sport. Then on the defensive facet, DC Jesse Minter has the Chargers protection firing on all cylinders. They’ve been tremendous spectacular on the again finish, enjoying on a string, whereas up entrance Khalil Mack and Poona Ford flip again the clock up entrance. The younger linebackers are enjoying effectively within the center, and it’s actually introduced the unit collectively as a complete. To not point out, they have already got wins over Denver and Cleveland this season.

I’m not saying we needs to be ready for the Chargers making the playoffs in 12 months 1 below Jim Harbaugh, however I’m saying that it wouldn’t shock me.

Atlanta Falcons: Contender

The Atlanta Falcons are contenders as a result of they boast probably the most versatile offenses in all the league. Because the opening season loss to Pittsburgh, Atlanta has a prime 5 offense in EPA per play and is sixth in offensive success charge as effectively. QB Kirk Cousins is enjoying at a excessive degree, doing extra true QB’ing from shotgun and in customary dropback conditions than he did in Minnesota, and he’s developed a rapport with receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Mix that with among the coolest gamers within the league in RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and also you get an offense that’s cooking up a storm. Plus, they’ve already overwhelmed the Bucs twice and the Saints as soon as, mainly locking up the NFC South at this level.

My solely level of concern is a protection that may’t rush the passer persistently, however as a result of they’ve an offense that may put up factors with anybody, I’m in on this group.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretender (hesitantly)

I had a lot religion within the Buccaneers, however I’m simply undecided this group can get to the playoffs of their present type. Thoughts you, this isn’t actually concerning the offense. Whereas they’ll nonetheless endure from the Baker Mayfield bozo drive right here and there, the Bucs offense nonetheless has discovered very nice pockets of play with out WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (Evans is anticipated again after Week 11). Their display screen sport with all three operating backs is basically good, and the offensive line is coming collectively effectively.

The Bucs drawback is a protection that’s displaying an increasing number of cracks by the day. Regardless of being fourth within the NFL in blitz charge, they’re solely sixteenth in stress charge per Professional Soccer Reference. They will’t actually get house with their pressures, and due to the construction of their protection, which means a defensive lineman is out in protection, leaving them open to getting carved up. Their again seven has been hit laborious by damage, which doesn’t add to the scenario any higher both. If they’ll’t beat the Chiefs on Monday night time, the season has an opportunity of getting worse earlier than it will get any higher.

Arizona Cardinals: Pretender (hesitantly)

The Cardinals are the one group within the NFC West above .500. For those who had that in your NFL bingo card this season I need to shake your hand and provide you with an award. The Cardinals are an enchanting group as a result of they’re constructed like they could be extra ready to contend in 2025, however as a result of they’re main the division proper now, why not try to make a run? The offense is a little more high-variance than I would really like them to be, however at their finest they trigger so many issues due to their means to play in heavier formations. TE Trey McBride is a budding famous person in addition to WR Marvin Harrison Jr, and RB James Conner is a deal with breaking machine. Whereas QB Kyler Murray has stretches of inconsistency, he’s an electrical playmaker who’s able to main this offense.

They’re pretenders for now as a result of I nonetheless have points with this protection, and it’s just because they’re too small up entrance. The Cardinals prefer to play with all three safeties on the sphere, however due to how little they’re up entrance, these safeties find yourself getting crushed by groups with a succesful run sport, like a whole lot of groups the Cardinals would face within the playoffs. For now, I’m going to say they’re pretenders. However they’re enjoying with home cash at this level, and with a lighter schedule they very effectively may win the division.

Denver Broncos: Pretender

I’m simply undecided if the Broncos can severely make a run to finish the season. Whereas I really like their protection and the way they play when everyone seems to be wholesome, the offense leaves loads to be desired. Clearly, the quarterback spot goes to get a whole lot of scrutiny, and I feel Nix has had a whole lot of stretches of poor play, however exterior of Nix I simply don’t actually have a whole lot of religion on this supporting solid as a playoff group. Exterior of WR Courtland Sutton, I feel the receiver group wants a bit extra maturation, and so they’re attempting to determine their RB rotation as effectively. Perhaps they’ll backdoor their manner into the playoffs, however they’ve two video games towards the Chiefs left, in addition to video games towards the Chargers and Bengals on the schedule. I’m hesitant to name them a contender, however subsequent yr might be an excellent one.

Cincinnati Bengals: Pretender

I’m not doing this with the Bengals once more. I simply can’t. Cincy is 4-5 after throttling the aimless Raiders on Sunday, however I simply don’t assume that is the yr for the Bengals. Whereas Joe Burrow has performed implausible soccer, the protection continues to be reliant on otherworldly Trey Hendrickson performances with the intention to win persistently on that facet of the ball. They’re one of many worst run defenses in all the league, which additionally they mix with some actual complicated stretches of play within the secondary. The younger DBs for Cincinnati nonetheless want extra time to develop, however their schedule doesn’t actually afford them a lot time to develop. Can the Bengals’ offense will them simply exterior of the playoff image? Positive, however I don’t assume they’ll have sufficient to do it this yr.

Seattle Seahawks: Pretender

No Seahawks sport is ever regular, which makes this season probably the most irregular for Seattle shortly. It was all the time going to take time for the protection to actually gel, however they permit far too many large performs to be critical on protection proper now. Nonetheless, my challenge is with an offense that’s all the time in its’ personal manner up entrance. Their lack of ability to do something up entrance is basically hampering what they’ll run on offense. They’re twenty eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, have given up 28 sacks and proper now can’t even snap a ball accurately. This lack of ability to run something up entrance places a whole lot of stress on QB Geno Smith to be excellent on each move, and never even he’s resistant to a a number of interception sport like he had on Sunday. Even regardless of that, the Seahawks will nonetheless discover themselves within the hunt due to Smith and the opposite expertise on the offensive facet of the ball, however I don’t know if the offensive line can do sufficient for them to make it.

Los Angeles Rams: Contender

The Rams did this final yr, and that’s largely the rationale why I feel they’ll do it once more. LA has a system for a way they win, which is a ferocious younger move rush and QB Matthew Stafford catching fireplace for a number of video games. That’s how they beat Seattle on Sunday, and it’s a really efficient technique. So long as Stafford, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams play, the Rams’ offense is such a particularly troublesome group to defend. Stafford could be placing collectively a few of his finest play in current weeks, and so long as they’ll get that from him the Rams are going to problem for the playoffs. If the move rush, led by sensational rookie EDGE Jared Verse, can proceed to be excellent, this Rams group could make the playoffs.