Phrase’s buzzing round city, and we’re about to make a slew of recent associates in the present day. Welcome aboard to this betting factor of ours. You’ve come to the proper place! What higher solution to put a shiny bow on this vacation season? The extra, the merrier.
Right now, we’re whipping out the previous crystal ball to examine the current NFL futures marketplace for a few +EV performs which are certain to stuff these stockings.
Strap up, strap in. Let’s go.
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🙌 Who’s enjoying for milestones and to hit contract incentives down the stretch?
🤔 Start Michael Penix within the semis of fantasy playoffs? Sure. PLUS a scorching tackle Toffee Almond Sandies.
🎁 Want a last-minute vacation reward? We have a gift guide from our writers! Philadelphia Eagles To Win NFC #1 Seed (+170) DraftKings
Nothing says the vacations like a bit of acapella over a flaming trash can. My favourite plus-money future on the board takes us again to South Philly—and is definitely one we started a place on a couple of month in the past. To my stunned delight, regardless of modeling its probability to extend, the worth remained stagnant. So I’m hitting it once more. Within the phrases of the good luminary and American songwriter/thinker Britney Spears, do it to me yet one more time.
Philadelphia has burned like liquid scorching magma all through its 10-game win streak, going again to mid-October. To me, nobody’s even shut throughout that span in balanced domination. Philly is well a top-tier offense, rating fifth or higher in scoring (28.3) and EPA/play (+0.10) for the reason that Week 5 bye. And we all know the protection will get after it.
PHI’s success ought to come as no shock with Saquon Barkley leading the NFL in rushing by a country mile behind the league’s premier offensive line. And, oh yeah, quarterback Jalen Hurts is fairly good, too. He’s scored extra dashing TDs in 2024 than anybody—and in addition occurs to be posting the perfect underpinning passing metrics of his profession when it comes to EPA/try (+0.26), completion charge (69.2%), passer score (104.5), and yards per try (8.1). That boy is on fireplace.
If stopping this uniquely versatile offense doesn’t current sufficient of an issue, Vic Fangio’s protection actually will. The Eagles persistently collapse inside strains, get to the quarterback, end tackles, and current a powerful secondary. No straightforward outs right here, of us.
Proper now, Philly’s D might preserve an ice dragon north of Westeros, sitting at or close to the highest of each crucial macro stat on the season:
Philadelphia’s tied in wins with the Lions, whose harm report might area a complete high quality unit proper now. The Eagles do path Detroit by a sport in convention file (second tiebreaker), however there’s an incredible disparity in rest-of-season strength-of-schedule from right here on out. Mix that with sheer roster well being and I believe the Eagles are the brand new favourite Monday in the event that they defeat the Commanders within the Nation’s Capital.
Mixed Opponents’ Document Relaxation Of Season:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Win NFC Convention (+1600) And To Win Tremendous Bowl (+4000) MGM
Bosses requested me to get bizarre with this final one. Say no extra—your want is my command. Hitting on futures this late within the season comes right down to pricing. The place’s the potential worth the general public hasn’t caught onto but? For your complete month since their Week 11 bye, I’ve been summarily obsessive about the Buccaneers. Watching a metric ton extra soccer than any regular human ought to, it’s truly adaptive schematics and aggression on protection that draw me in like moths to the flame.
I do know, I do know. Protection and the Buccaneers in the identical sentence sounds odd—particularly after a disastrous five-game stretch in October through which they allowed +33 factors and almost 430 whole yards/sport. TB couldn’t cease a snowman in a sauna, I get it. Nicely, the NFL season remains to be a marathon, not a dash. Generally absence makes the guts develop fonder.
That bye I alluded to earlier than couldn’t have come at a greater time. Just like the mighty Phoenix, Baker Mayfield’s boys ascended from the ashes to win 4 straight—and appear like a reliable contender within the course of. Not one to relaxation on his laurels, Todd Bowles went proper in his bag to reconfigure their strain packages, evident in an elevated blitz charge.
Simply on its face, the laundry checklist of elite outcomes throughout phases over the previous month turns into exhausting to argue:
If I succeeded in making a compelling case for the protection, all of a sudden Tampa’s listed costs appear like an insane worth. Keep in mind, you needn’t even squint to see how properly the Bucs have performed on offense this season—they’re top-5 in scoring (28.8), yardage (388.4), and success charge (50.5%). Bust out the microscope should you’d like on final month’s spreadsheet, however I warn you. You’ll want sun shades. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in each level and net-yard differential since that fateful bye week. The general public has been sluggish on this transformation, however not us…
Sure, it’s a longshot but additionally one which’s going to be a ton of enjoyable to root for.
NOTE: Betting’s enjoyable and doubtlessly very worthwhile however have to be executed responsibly always. In longshot instances like this, I like to recommend solely betting 10% or one-tenth of no matter your commonplace betting unit is (0.10u).
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE! And glad holidays from all of us at Fantasy Life!
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THE WATERCOOLER
THE BET
THE LONGSHOT
