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NFL Divisional Spherical recreation picks: Eagles’ expertise overwhelms Giants; Bengals upset Payments in Buffalo

NFL Divisional Spherical recreation picks: Eagles’ expertise overwhelms Giants; Bengals upset Payments in Buffalo

Revealed: Jan 19, 2023 at 12:12 PM

The traces supplied by Caesars Sportsbook are present as of midday ET on Thursday, Jan. 19 until in any other case famous beneath.

Saturday, Jan. 21

Jacksonville Jaguars
  • WHERE: GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas Metropolis, Mo.)
  • WHEN: 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC, Peacock, Universo
  • MONEYLINE: Jaguars: +360 | Chiefs: -480
  • SPREAD: Jaguars +8.5 | O/U: 52.5

Every group spent the early a part of the season hoping its protection would enhance to common. Each models have been higher than that down the stretch. The Jaguars rank sixth in defensive effectivity since Week 15, according to Football Outsiders, whereas the Chiefs are eighth over that span, buoyed by an improved go rush. Each groups are wholesome for this late within the season, and Jacksonville’s penchant for bold comebacks is paying homage to Kansas Metropolis’s 2019 title group.

The similarities do not cease there. Each have a gaggle of weapons better than the sum of its components, lifted by sensible play-callers and savvy quarterbacks who win earlier than the snap greater than they’re given credit score for. However let’s not get carried away with Trevor Lawrence‘s improvement right here. He is nice, however he is not Patrick Mahomes-in-2018 nice, a lot much less Patrick Mahomes-in-’23.

If all issues are comparable outdoors of the quarterback, Mahomes is best at creating angles and firing on-target throws that defy expected completion percentage. It needs to be a enjoyable one — eight factors appears like too large some extent unfold — however the Jags’ run ends right here as a result of this Jags protection hasn’t improved that a lot.

New York Giants

What issues extra: The physique of labor from the entire season or the final month?

The Giants are peaking on the proper time, in a position to blitz much less on protection due to a more healthy line of defense. They’re additionally prepared to belief Daniel Jones to do extra. The receiver group is established and underrated. The teaching employees is on a roll. Just like the Eagles, their working quarterback makes them harmful in short-yardage and red-zone conditions. They should be right here.

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In the meantime, the Eagles stumbled to the end line and now face damage inquiries to a few of their greatest gamers. Lane Johnson and Jalen Hurts are again, however will they be the same?

That stated, the Eagles’ capacity to win each sort of recreation ought to serve them nicely right here. They will not want Hurts to deal with the blitz in passing conditions if they’re hardly ever in them. Maybe probably the most crucial team-building technique of Philadelphia’s analytical entrance workplace is the idea in paying for high quality and amount up entrance. The Eagles are more durable and deeper than the Giants on each traces. They will run the ball higher and rush the passer manner higher, harassing Jones and letting their superior general expertise take over.

Sunday, Jan. 22

Buffalo Bills
  • WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
  • WHEN: 3 p.m. ET | CBS, Paramount+
  • MONEYLINE: Bengals: +196 | Payments: -240
  • SPREAD: Bengals + 5.5 | O/U: 48.5

These could possibly be the NFL’s two greatest groups — with full well being. However that is not the established order. Cincinnati lost 3/5 of its offensive line over the previous month, whereas Buffalo’s go rush hasn’t been practically as fearsome without Von Miller.

Even when the Payments sit in a two-deep security shell all recreation just like the Ravens did last week in Cincy, they may accomplish that without Micah Hyde. Irrespective of how Buffalo traces up, Joe Burrow must take extra possibilities on the skin towards the Payments’ cornerbacks.

The Bengals’ accidents make this a more durable upset to name, however Cincinnati’s a extra full group general. The Payments’ lack of receiver depth forces Josh Allen to do an excessive amount of, and the Bengals — robust in any respect three ranges of protection — have performed higher soccer during the last two months.

Dallas Cowboys

It isn’t simply that the 49ers have two further days of relaxation. Nick Bosa, for instance, has performed fewer snaps prior to now two video games mixed (65) than Micah Parsons did on Monday evening (79).

Dallas has an enormous edge at quarterback and is the uncommon group that may match San Francisco’s top-end expertise, participant for participant. The Cowboys’ expertise, nevertheless, is not as deep. Kyle Shanahan will put a goal on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Barr, in addition to cornerbacks DaRon Bland and Xavier Rhodes. Placing Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey collectively unlocks one other degree of this offense that even Parsons cannot erase.

I’ve believed all season that six groups have an opportunity to win Tremendous Bowl LVII. All six made the Divisional Round and 4 of them are taking part in on Sunday. An upset on this recreation would not be stunning, however the 49ers’ teaching employees, playoff expertise, relaxation and home-field benefit is sufficient for me to lean to the No. 2 seed. The Niners simply have extra methods to win.

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