MLB’s finest 1-2 pitching punch? Most weak contender? AL ROY? 5 burning questions

Solely two weeks stay within the common season, but there’s nonetheless a lot to type out. 

Which contenders could be counted on? Who has probably the most dependable pitchers? Who ought to win American League Rookie of the 12 months? 

FOX Sports activities MLB consultants Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar deal with these matters and extra on this week’s roundtable.

1. How would you dimension up the AL Rookie of the 12 months race?

Kavner: Whereas Paul Skenes and the Jacksons duke it out within the Nationwide League, the AL rookie award has been up for grabs for anybody to take all yr. Colton Cowser was a front-runner for a lot of the season, Wilyer Abreu has been top-of-the-line AL rookies all yr on a price foundation on the plate, and Luis Gil appeared like the reply for a stretch of time (and will make a late cost for the award), however a distinct participant in pinstripes has jumped to the forefront at crucial time of the yr. Along with his very good work behind the plate, Austin Wells has an .874 OPS within the second half of the season whereas settling into the cleanup spot for a lineup that wants the manufacturing. I do not assume Abreu is getting sufficient consideration (even considering that he would not hit lefties), however proper now, Wells has in all probability carried out sufficient to leap to the highest of the road in a good race.

Thosar: In current weeks, Yankees catcher Austin Wells went from being a darkish horse Rookie of the 12 months candidate to a professional contender due to his late surge within the workforce’s closing stretch of the common season. Lately, the rookie catcher is batting cleanup behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge and delivering in clutch moments, batting .313 with a 1.014 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring place. Much like the division foes vying for the AL East, this might be a good, two-man race between Wells and Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, who’s neck and neck with the Yankees backstop in slugging, wRC+, and fWAR. Cowser, who leads all AL rookies with 20 residence runs, has performed in roughly 40 extra video games and compiled 155 extra plate appearances than Wells. However slugging catchers have develop into an endangered species, and Wells is doing all this whereas hitting behind two of the most effective hitters in MLB. I haven’t got a BBWAA vote for AL Rookie of the 12 months this yr, however I actually do not envy the writers who do.

2. Which division chief seems most weak (as a contender, to not win their respective division) with October nearing?

Thosar: The Brewers. Whereas their arms have been stable all yr — they enter the ultimate weeks of the common season with a top-three pitching employees within the main leagues — the lineup is solely not as potent as different, stronger playoff contenders. Milwaukee is ranked eleventh in wRC+ and thirteenth in slugging proportion. The Brewers do get on base a ton, drawing probably the most walks in MLB after the Yankees, and so they profit from their alternatives by swiping bases at a prime clip. However residence runs are nonetheless key to successful within the playoffs, and in that class the Brew Crew is ranked within the backside half of the league (and under the opposite 5 first-place groups). There’s nonetheless an opportunity that pitching and good, small ball can carry the Brewers on a shocking run, however their lack of energy is a vulnerability that is exhausting to miss.

Kavner: The Guardians have been constantly neglected all season, so I hate so as to add to that right here. They deserve credit score for what they’ve carried out, however they’re 26-25 for the reason that All-Star break. Throughout that point, their rotation ranks twenty second in ERA and their offense ranks twenty sixth in OPS. Possibly Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd find yourself being the godsends that miraculously repair their rotation, however as a lot their bullpen and protection will help them lock down any lead they get higher than any workforce in baseball, I am nonetheless involved about what number of early leads they’re going to even have in October.

3. Which workforce’s prime two beginning pitchers would you belief most in a postseason collection?

Kavner: I’d’ve mentioned Chris Sale and Reynaldo López previous to López’s shoulder subject, and it is tempting to now simply go together with Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola contemplating their expertise, however I will take a prime two which may come as extra of a shock. I in all probability do not should inform you how good Framber Valdez has been recently, however the Astros ace has a league-leading 1.32 ERA for the reason that begin of August and got here one out away from a no-hitter final month. That is not as astonishing, although, as what his rotation mate Hunter Brown has completed whereas rebounding from a disastrous begin to the yr. Brown had a 16.43 ERA after his first three begins of the season. Within the final of these three, he allowed 11 hits in lower than an inning of labor in Kansas Metropolis. It has been a dramatic turnaround since then, notably for the reason that starting of Might. Whereas utilizing extra of his sinker and changeup and dramatically slicing down his hard-hit price, Brown has a 2.26 ERA within the season’s second half that ranks fifth within the majors. Add on what Yusei Kikuchi has carried out since getting traded to Houston, and the Astros can construct a formidable prime duo even when Justin Verlander by no means returns to type.

Thosar: Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Wheeler, the Phillies‘ ace, has been neglected for years now, however his brilliance on the mound might be most impactful in October when the backdrop of 42,000 screaming followers will do nothing to daunt him. Wheeler is great at getting out of jams, sports activities one of many highest strikeout charges amongst starters who will pitch within the postseason, and he pitches deep into video games, permitting bullpens to relaxation and reset in essential playoff collection. Behind him, Nola’s expertise solely makes the Phillies’ 1-2 punch stronger. The veteran right-hander has a 3.70 ERA in 9 profession postseason begins and was notably dominant in final yr’s October run, together with his solely hiccup coming in opposition to the Diamondbacks in Recreation 6 of the NLCS. It is easy to belief the poise from Wheeler and Nola in a postseason collection, and I am anticipating the outcomes to again up their pedigree this fall.

4. Who’s been probably the most disappointing workforce in baseball this yr?

Thosar: It is the Texas Rangers, for me. This was fairly the autumn for the reigning World Sequence champions, who had a professional probability to develop into the primary repeat World Sequence winners for the reason that Yankees gained three in a row from 1998-2000. They’d the not-so-tall process of staying afloat within the first half, which they largely did by heading into the All-Star break with a 46-50 file, till reinforcements got here from guys like Josh Jung, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. However now that these injured gamers are returning, it is the Rangers offense that has been probably the most disappointing. The identical bats that carried them to the Fall Basic final yr have been duds this yr, rating within the backside third of the league in wRC+ and slugging, with their remoted energy numbers being solely barely higher than the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates and Rays. Corey Seager has appeared like Corey Seager, however Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford have all hit under league common. Texas hoped its offense would carry its far-from-elite pitching employees, however Rangers bats are apparently nonetheless hungover after successful the franchise’s first championship.

Kavner: Loads of candidates right here, but it surely’s the Blue Jays. After their current playoff flubs, this yr felt like an inflection level for the path of the franchise and its core of gamers. And it couldn’t have gone a lot worse. A rotation that includes Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer main the offense figured to be sufficient to make Toronto a contender within the aggressive AL East. As a substitute, they’re in final place and all however assured to complete with their first shedding season since 2019. Their catastrophe season has left many questioning the place the franchise goes from right here, particularly contemplating Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all free brokers after subsequent season and the farm system may use one other injection of expertise even after including some younger items on the deadline.

5. In the event you needed to win one recreation proper now, who could be your beginning pitcher?

Kavner: Chris Sale. On June 27, Sale went seven innings, allowed one run and struck out 11. He misplaced that recreation 1-0 — and hasn’t been charged with a loss since. As unfortunate as this yr has been in Atlanta, it at the very least introduced the NL Cy Younger Award favourite to city in one of many extra lopsided trades we have seen in fairly a while. Sale has an MLB-best 2.38 ERA general and an much more spectacular 1.75 mark for the reason that All-Star break. He hasn’t allowed greater than two earned runs in a begin since June 1. That was 17 begins in the past.

Thosar: Chris Sale. From his observe file, to his imposing presence on the mound, to his lights-out performances, the veteran southpaw is again to being the Chris Sale of outdated, when he was a perennial Cy Younger contender with the White Sox and Red Sox from 2012 to 2018. Since June 1, he has a 1.91 ERA and 1.67 FIP — and has solely allowed two residence runs in that 16-start span. He has a professional shot at successful the NL pitching triple crown. By way of successful one recreation proper now, Sale’s means to negate the specter of the lengthy ball whereas hanging batters out separates him from the pack. His 11.5 Ok/9 and 0.4 HR/9 each lead the majors. It has been full management and domination for Sale this yr, and on prime of all of his different strengths, staying wholesome and beginning each fifth day has mattered probably the most to an Atlanta Braves workforce that’s pushing for the playoffs. This renaissance season for Sale has earned him the title as finest pitcher in MLB proper now.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand lined the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved again to the West Coast in 2014. Observe him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. She beforehand lined the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Every day Information. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Lengthy Island and now lives in Queens. Observe her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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